Framework for Assessment of Technology Maturation Using Uncertainty Quantification

Johnston, Hunter B.; Cox, Adam; Baker, Adam; Mavris, Dimitri N.

Title:

Framework for Assessment of Technology Maturation Using Uncertainty Quantification

dc.contributor.author	Johnston, Hunter B.
dc.contributor.author	Cox, Adam
dc.contributor.author	Baker, Adam
dc.contributor.author	Mavris, Dimitri N.
dc.contributor.corporatename	Georgia Institute of Technology. Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory
dc.contributor.corporatename	American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
dc.date.accessioned	2024-01-16T16:12:07Z
dc.date.available	2024-01-16T16:12:07Z
dc.date.issued	2024-01
dc.description	Presented at AIAA SciTech Forum 2024
dc.description.abstract	The results in this paper come from a project to develop an Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) framework to assist researchers in technology development and maturation. This framework aims to re-frame technology maturation as a process of reducing quantifiable uncertainty instead of completing requirements on a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale. The framework provided in this paper uses Bayesian statistics to redefine the technology maturation task as a process of reducing uncertainty in system inputs and outputs. This framework is powered by the calculation of a Variance Reduction Potential (VRP) for each system inputs that relates how much how uncertainty in the system-level outputs are related to the uncertainty in the system inputs. This variance reduction potential can be estimated by simulating the system of interest. This allows for researchers to determine which variables are the most important to test before any testing has actually been done. This framework empowers researchers to gain as much information on their system as possible before spending resources on physical testing rounds, making research and development of new systems more efficient.
dc.description.sponsorship	This material is based upon research supported by, or in part by, the U.S. Office of Naval Research (ONR) under award number ONR N00014-21-1-2893 Technology Maturation Trade Study
dc.identifier.citation	Hunter B. Johnston, Adam Cox, Adam T. Baker and Dimitri N. Mavris. "Framework for Assessment of Technology Maturation Using Uncertainty Quantification," AIAA 2024-1855. AIAA SCITECH 2024 Forum. January 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2024-1855
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2024-1855
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/1853/73233
dc.publisher	Georgia Institute of Technology
dc.publisher.original	American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA)
dc.rights.metadata	https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
dc.subject	Uncertainty quantification
dc.subject	Technology development
dc.subject	TRL
dc.subject	MCMC
dc.subject	Variance reduction
dc.subject	Bayesian Probability
dc.subject	ANOVA
dc.title	Framework for Assessment of Technology Maturation Using Uncertainty Quantification
dc.type	Text
dc.type.genre	Post-print
dspace.entity.type	Publication
local.contributor.author	Mavris, Dimitri N.
local.contributor.corporatename	College of Engineering
local.contributor.corporatename	Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL)
local.contributor.corporatename	Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering
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