Title:
Framework for Assessment of Technology Maturation Using Uncertainty Quantification
Framework for Assessment of Technology Maturation Using Uncertainty Quantification
Author(s)
Johnston, Hunter B.
Cox, Adam
Baker, Adam
Mavris, Dimitri N.
Cox, Adam
Baker, Adam
Mavris, Dimitri N.
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Abstract
The results in this paper come from a project to develop an Uncertainty Quantification (UQ)
framework to assist researchers in technology development and maturation. This framework
aims to re-frame technology maturation as a process of reducing quantifiable uncertainty instead
of completing requirements on a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale. The framework
provided in this paper uses Bayesian statistics to redefine the technology maturation task as a
process of reducing uncertainty in system inputs and outputs. This framework is powered by
the calculation of a Variance Reduction Potential (VRP) for each system inputs that relates how
much how uncertainty in the system-level outputs are related to the uncertainty in the system
inputs. This variance reduction potential can be estimated by simulating the system of interest.
This allows for researchers to determine which variables are the most important to test before
any testing has actually been done. This framework empowers researchers to gain as much
information on their system as possible before spending resources on physical testing rounds,
making research and development of new systems more efficient.
Sponsor
This material is based upon research supported by, or in part by, the U.S. Office of Naval Research (ONR) under award number ONR N00014-21-1-2893 Technology Maturation Trade Study
Date Issued
2024-01
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Text
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Post-print