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search.filters.applied.f.advisor: Stone, Brian × End date: 2019 × Start date: 2010 × search.filters.applied.f.isSeriesOfPublicationTitle: Doctor of Philosophy with a Major in City and Regional Planning ×

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A methodological assessment of extreme heat mortality modeling and heat vulnerability mapping in Atlanta, Detroit, and Phoenix

2019-11-12 , Mallen, Evan Sheppard

Extreme temperatures pose an increasingly high risk to human health and are projected to worsen in a warming climate with increased intensity, duration and frequency of heat waves, further amplified by the urban heat island, in the coming decades. To mitigate heat exposure and protect sensitive populations, urban planners are increasingly using decision support tools like heat vulnerability indices (HVIs) to identify high priority areas for intervention and investment. However, HVIs often capture only proxy heat exposure indicators at the land surface level, not air temperatures that humans experience, and are highly subjective in their construction methodology. This gap can be filled using regional climate models like the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate air temperatures comprehensively over a city, coupled with a heat exposure-response function to objectively estimate mortality attributable to heat. But this method is often beyond the capabilities of local planning departments due to limitations in funding or technical expertise to run the model. Careful consideration of decision support tool selection will be an important factor in determining the future resilience of urban populations in a changing climate. Through a comparative analysis, this study investigates the relationship and utility of HVIs and spatial statistical attribution models with a focus on 1) the extent to which HVI methods can replicate spatial prioritization from a WRF-driven mortality model; 2) the relative significance of place-based vulnerabilities used in the HVI; and 3) the potential to reliably replicate a WRF-driven mortality model using publicly available datasets. This information can help urban planners and public health officials improve their emergency response plans and communication strategies for heat mitigation by specifically targeting short and long-term responses where there is greatest need. These techniques equip planners with a useful and accessible tool to protect vulnerable populations effectively and efficiently with minimal public funds and could advance the policies we use to adapt to a changing climate.

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Red hot American summer: Extreme heat and physical activity of adults

2018-12-20 , Lanza, Kevin

This dissertation investigates the relationship between extreme summer heat and outdoor, indoor, and total (i.e., outdoor + indoor) physical activity levels of US adults. With the lack of physical activity across the US, public health practitioners and city planners are making concerted efforts to promote physical activity through formal interventions and the design of spaces, respectively. To inform physical activity interventions, researchers examine which factors associate with physical activity, one of which is temperature. The majority of studies exhibit a significant positive association between temperature and physical activity, yet no studies examine exceptionally hot summer days, which disproportionately impact cities and are set to become more prevalent in the future. This dissertation tests three novel questions: 1) how do hot days associate with outdoor, indoor, and total physical activity; 2) how do hot days influence the effect of built environment factors on outdoor physical activity; and 3) how do heat waves – consecutive hot days – associate with outdoor, indoor, and total physical activity? This work made use of self-reported physical activity and demographic data collected during summer 2016 for a National Science Foundation project (NSF award number: 1520803). The study sample included a spatial and demographic mix of ~50 adults per study city (i.e., Atlanta, Detroit, and Phoenix). Heat was measured as both hot days and heat waves (i.e., two or more consecutive hot days), utilizing air temperature and relative humidity data collected at each city’s major airport. The examined built environment factors (i.e., density, safety, trees, hilliness, connectivity, access to parks, and access to shops + services) were primarily collected from government sources and calculated within an 800m Euclidean distance of each study participant’s home address. Separate two-level growth curve models were run for each research question, version of the dependent variable (i.e., Any Activity and Recommended Activity), and location of physical activity (i.e., outdoor, indoor, and total). Multilevel modeling predicted that 1) hot days do not exhibit a significant association with indoor, outdoor, or total physical activity; 2) hot days do not significantly influence the effect of built environment factors on outdoor physical activity; and 3) heat waves do not exhibit a significant association with outdoor, indoor, or total physical activity. These findings refute the study hypotheses that extreme summer heat would decrease outdoor and total physical activity, while shifting physical activity to indoor, thermally comfortable environments. With high temperatures potentially not serving as a barrier to physical activity, cities should allocate resources to reducing the risk of exertional heat illness, an adverse health event expected to become more frequent with physical activity promotion and climate change.

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Exploring urban agriculture as a climate change mitigation strategy at the neighborhood scale

2017-08-28 , Habeeb, Dana M.

Extreme heat events are responsible for more annual fatalities in the United States than any other form of extreme weather. Urban centers are particularly vulnerable to the threats of excessive heat as most cities are home to large populations of lower income individuals who often lack access to air conditioning or adequate healthcare facilities. Urban populations are also more likely to be exposed to extreme heat due to the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. As the global population continues to urbanize, the number of vulnerable individuals will continue to increase making urban heat island mitigation strategies all the more important. In this research, I explore urban agriculture as an urban heat island mitigation strategy. I conduct a land cover analysis to investigate the climate effect of urban agriculture on local temperatures. I use satellite temperature data, land cover data, and urban form metrics to estimate how the percent change in urban agriculture impacts local temperatures. My research shows that urban agriculture decreases high nighttime temperatures during summer months, which is an important public health finding as nighttime temperatures are a better metric for capturing negative health effects from extreme heat than daytime temperatures. At the local level, an increase of 10-acres per km2 in agricultural land cover can reduce nighttime temperatures by approximately 0.65°F accounting for approximately 10% of Atlanta's UHI effect. Agricultural lands outperformed forested land cover as a nighttime cooling mechanism across the Atlanta MSA. I investigated whether the urban form of a neighborhood impacts the relationship between urban agriculture and local climate and found an interaction effect between urban agriculture and urban form when a heat wave is present. Agricultural implementations in dense urban neighborhoods decrease temperatures more than in the residential areas. Additionally, I found that a minimum of seven acres of agricultural lands must be implemented before cooling effects will occur in urban areas. Though agricultural lands can act as a successful heat mitigation strategy by lowering nighttime temperatures, during heat waves the magnitude of the cooling effect is diminished. As such, I argue for an active management strategy to ensure that urban agriculture maintains its cooling potential during extreme heat conditions. In addition, I argue that urban agriculture should not only be placed in cities but that the morphology of the built environment should be taken into consideration when selecting locations for urban agriculture. When designing heat mitigation strategies, it is important for planners and policy makers to quantify the difference between vegetative approaches in order to understand the tradeoffs they are making climatically, environmentally, and socially. As such the results of my research can help guide planners when selecting between vegetative UHI mitigation strategies and may further support the burgeoning urban agriculture movement.

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