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Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering
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ItemForecasting Technology Uncertainty in Preliminary Aircraft Design(Georgia Institute of Technology, 1999-10) Kirby, Michelle Rene ; Mavris, Dimitri N.An evolved version of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) method is presented that provides techniques for quantifying technological uncertainty associated with immature technologies. Uncertainty in this context implies forecasting. Forecasting the impact of immature technologies on a system is needed to provide increased knowledge to a decision-maker in the conceptual and preliminary phases of aircraft design. The increased knowledge allows for proper allocation of company resources and program management. The TIES method addresses the milestones encountered during a technology development program, the sources of uncertainty during that development, a potential method for bounding and forecasting the uncertainty, and a means to quantify the impact of any emerging technology. A proof of concept application was performed on a High Speed Civil Transport concept due to its technically challenging customer requirements.
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ItemTechnology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection for Commercial Transport Aircraft(Georgia Institute of Technology, 1999-05) Mavris, Dimitri N. ; Kirby, Michelle ReneThis paper outlines a comprehensive, structured, and robust methodology for decision making in the early phases of aircraft design. The proposed approach is referred to as the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) method. The nine-step process provides the decision maker/designer with an ability to easily assess and trade-off the impact of various technologies in the absence of sophisticated, time-consuming mathematical formulations for project resource allocation. The method also provides a framework where technically feasible and economically viable alternatives can be identified with accuracy and speed while the impact on the economics is quantified. Furthermore, structured and systematic techniques are utilized to identify possible concepts and evaluation criteria by which comparisons could be made. Through the implementation of each step, the best family of alternatives for a customer-focused overall measure of value can be identified and assessed subjectively or objectively. This method was applied to a 150 passenger, intra-continental commercial transport as a proof of concept investigation.
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ItemTakeoff/Landing Assessment of an HSCT with Pneumatic Lift Augmentation(Georgia Institute of Technology, 1999-01) Mavris, Dimitri N. ; Kirby, Michelle RenePneumatic technologies, such as Circulation Control airfoils, have been experimentally demonstrated to generate very high lift coefficients at low angles of attack. These blown airfoils offer great potential for advanced subsonic transports. Yet, the potential of this particular pneumatic technology is not limited to subsonic aircraft. In fact, Circulation Control has been chosen as an enabling technology to be applied on a generic High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) under NASA Grant NAG-1-1517. Research on this contract was directed to a first-order quantitative estimate of the impact of Circulation Control on the takeoff and landing performance of an HSCT and is summarized in this paper. A reference point was established with an HSCT utilizing conventional high-lift devices that resulted in a takeoff field length of approximately 13,000 ft. The incremental changes in lift and drag established from the wind tunnel experiments performed in the above stated grant were then applied to this configuration and the low speed performance enhancements and degradations were quantified. The application of Circulation Control was shown to reduce the takeoff field length by as much as 31% from the reference point. This result strongly warrants further investigations with higher order analysis since the first order estimate shows significant improvements in low speed performance of an HSCT with Circulation Control pneumatic technology.
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ItemGSRP - Formulation of a response surface approach for the integration of higher fidelity analytical tools in the conceptual and preliminary design process - Michelle R. Kirby(Georgia Institute of Technology, 1999) Mavris, Dimitri N. ; Kirby, Michelle Rene
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ItemTechnology Impact Forecasting for a High Speed Civil Transport(Georgia Institute of Technology, 1998-09) Mavris, Dimitri N. ; Kirby, Michelle Rene ; Qiu, SongtaoThis paper outlines a comprehensive, structured, and robust methodology for decision making in the early phases of aircraft design. The proposed approach is referred to as the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) method. The seven-step process provides the decision maker/designer with an ability to easily assess and trade-off the impact of various technologies in the absence of sophisticated, time-consuming mathematical formulations. The method also provides a framework where technically feasible alternatives can be identified with accuracy and speed. This goal is achieved through the use of various probabilistic methods, such as Response Surface Methodology and Monte Carlo Simulations. Furthermore, structured and systematic techniques are utilized to identify possible concepts and evaluation criteria by which comparisons could be made. This objective is achieved by employing the use of Morphological Matrices, Pugh Evaluation Matrices, and Multi-Attribute Decision Making methods. Through the implementation of each step, the best alternative for a given evaluation metric/criterion can be identified and assessed subjectively or objectively. This method was applied to a High Speed Civil Transport as a proof of concept investigation. The TIES method identified that a conventional (present day technology) configuration could not meet imposed FAR 36 Stage III sideline noise requirements. Through the infusion of new technologies, a technically feasible design space was created. The TIES method identified a single notional concept for further investigation. This concept has a composite wing structure, Circulation Control for low speed flight, Hybrid Laminar Flow Control for cruise, and advanced engines for reduced fuel consumption and noise emissions.
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ItemForecasting the Impact of Technology Infusion on Subsonic Transport Affordability(Georgia Institute of Technology, 1998-09) Kirby, Michelle Rene ; Mavris, Dimitri N.The design of complex systems, such as commercial aircraft, has drastically changed since the middle 1970's. Budgetary and airline requirements have forced many aerospace companies to reduce the amount of time and monetary investments in future revolutionary concepts and design methods. The current NASA administration has noticed this shift in aviation focus and responded with the "Three Pillars for Success" program. This program is a roadmap for the development of research, innovative ideas, and technology implementation goals for the next 20 years. As a response to this program, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory at Georgia Tech is developing methods whereby forecasting techniques will aid in the proper assessment of future vehicle concepts. This method is called Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF). This method is applied to a medium-range, intra-continental, commercial transport concept. The method identifies system level metric values, including performance and economics, for present day technology levels and projects this vehicle into the year 2020. Four technologies are applied to the vehicle including composite wing and fuselage structures, circulation control, hybrid laminar flow control, and advanced flight control systems. The projection of this vehicle into 2020 could not satisfy the target percent reduction with respect to the affordability goals set forth in the ?hree Pillars for Success?program. However, the power/advantage of the TIF method is clearly seen in this instance. In lieu of the blunt statement of failure, which provides no understanding or insight of the contributing factors or the method of resolution, a probabilistic environment is created for the decision maker/designer to play ?hat if?games. The ability is now present to assess the effect of relaxing target values, infusion of numerous technologies, and exploration of geometric design space decisions on the affordability of a future vehicle concept.
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ItemDemonstration of a Probabilistic Technique for the Determination of Aircraft Economic Viability(Georgia Institute of Technology, 1997-10) Mavris, Dimitri N. ; Mantis, George C. ; Kirby, Michelle ReneOver the past few years, modern aircraft design has experienced a paradigm shift from designing for performance to designing for affordability. This paper contains a probabilistic approach that will allow traditional deterministic design methods to be extended to account for disciplinary, economic, and technological uncertainty. The probabilistic approach was facilitated by the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) technique; a technique which allows the designer to gather valuable information about the vehicle's behavior in the design space. This technique is efficient for assessing multi-attribute, multi- constraint problems in a more realistic fashion. For implementation purposes, this technique is applied to illustrate how both economic and technological uncertainty associated with a Very Large Transport aircraft may be assessed. The assessment is evaluated with the FPI technique to determine the cumulative probability distributions of the design space, as bound by economic objectives and performance constraints. These distributions were compared to established targets for a comparable large capacity aircraft, similar in size to the Boeing 747-400. The conventional baseline configuration design space was determined to be marginally feasible and non-viable, motivating the infusion of advanced technologies, including laminar flow control, advanced materials, and advances in propulsion technology as to reflect 2005 entry into service. The resulting system benefits and penalties were qualitatively assessed with technology metric shifted the VLT design into regions of greater feasibility and viability. The study also demonstrated a method and relationship by which the impact of new technologies may be assessed in a more system focused approach. The impact of technology readiness and its associated risk was also addressed in this study and is not presented here.
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ItemPreliminary Assessment of the Economic Viability of a Family of Very Large Transport Configurations(Georgia Institute of Technology, 1996-10) Mavris, Dimitri N. ; Kirby, Michelle ReneA family of Very Large Transport (VLT) concepts were studied as an implementation of the affordability aspects of the Robust Design Simulation (RDS) methodology which is based on the Integrated Product and Process Development (IPPD) initiative that is sweeping through industry. The VLT is envisioned to be a high capacity (600 to 1000 passengers), long range (~7500 nm), subsonic transport. Various configurations with different levels of technology were compared, based on affordability issues, to a Boeing 747-400 which is a current high capacity, long range transport. The varying technology levels prompted a need for an integration of a sizing/synthesis (FLOPS) code with an economics package (ALCCA). The integration enables a direct evaluation of the added technology on a configuration economic viability. The determination of the viability was based on the assessment of the following evaluation criteria: average yield per Revenue Passenger Mile ($/RPM), Total Operating Cost per day (TOC), acquisition cost, airframe manufacturer's cash flow, and airline? return on investment. The assessment of these criteria was performed through the application of several statistical techniques such as Response Surface Methodology (RSM), Design of Experiments (DoE), and Monte Carlo Simulations. The result is a series of second-order equations that model the evaluation criteria above stated. The final conclusion of this analysis is that the 800 passenger configuration would meet most of the market demand (600 to 1600 passengers) of 250 city pairs considered. This paper reviews the RDS methodology and how it was applied to determine the economic viability of a VLT concept. In addition, it documents the results of the method used to determine the economic viability of a family of VLT configurations and the most affordable VLT configuration for a specified market demand.