Title:
Forecasting Technology Uncertainty in Preliminary Aircraft Design
Forecasting Technology Uncertainty in Preliminary Aircraft Design
Authors
Kirby, Michelle Rene
Mavris, Dimitri N.
Mavris, Dimitri N.
Authors
Person
Advisors
Advisors
Associated Organizations
Organizational Unit
Organizational Unit
Organizational Unit
Series
Collections
Supplementary to
Permanent Link
Abstract
An evolved version of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) method is presented that provides techniques for quantifying technological uncertainty associated with immature technologies. Uncertainty in this context implies forecasting. Forecasting the impact of immature technologies on a system is needed to provide increased knowledge to a decision-maker in the conceptual and preliminary phases of aircraft design. The increased knowledge allows for proper allocation of company resources and program management. The TIES method addresses the milestones encountered during a technology development program, the sources of uncertainty during that development, a potential method for bounding and forecasting the uncertainty, and a means to quantify the impact of any emerging technology. A proof of concept application was performed on a High Speed Civil Transport concept due to its technically challenging customer requirements.
Sponsor
Date Issued
1999-10
Extent
253958 bytes
Resource Type
Text
Resource Subtype
Paper