Title:
Spacecraft Technology Portfolio: Probabilistic Modeling and Implications for Responsiveness and Schedule Slippage
Spacecraft Technology Portfolio: Probabilistic Modeling and Implications for Responsiveness and Schedule Slippage
Author(s)
Dubos, Gregory F.
Saleh, Joseph H.
Saleh, Joseph H.
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Abstract
Addressing the challenges of Responsive Space and mitigating the risk of schedule
slippage in space programs require a thorough understanding of the various factors driving
the development schedule of a space system. The present work contributes theoretical and
practical results in this direction. A spacecraft is here conceived of as a technology portfolio.
The characteristics of this portfolio are defined as its size (e.g., number of instruments), the
technology maturity of each instrument and the resulting Technology Readiness Level
(TRL) heterogeneity, and their effects on the delivery schedule of a spacecraft are
investigated. Following a brief overview of the concept of R&D portfolio and its relevance to
spacecraft design, a probabilistic model of the Time-to-Delivery of a spacecraft is
formulated, which includes the development, Integration and Testing, and Shipping phases.
The Mean-Time-To-Delivery (MTTD) of the spacecraft is quantified based on the portfolio
characteristics, and it is shown that the Mean-Time-To-Delivery (MTTD) of the spacecraft
and its schedule risk are significantly impacted by decreasing TRL and increasing portfolio
size. Finally, the utility implications of varying the portfolio characteristics are investigated,
and "portfolio maps" are provided as guides to help system designers identify appropriate
portfolio characteristics when operating in a calendar-based design environment (which is
the paradigm shift that space responsiveness introduces).
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Date Issued
2010-04
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Text
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Paper
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