Title:
Statistical Reliability Analysis of Satellites by Mass Category: Does Spacecraft Size Matter?
Statistical Reliability Analysis of Satellites by Mass Category: Does Spacecraft Size Matter?
Author(s)
Dubos, Gregory F.
Castet, Jean-Francois
Saleh, Joseph H.
Castet, Jean-Francois
Saleh, Joseph H.
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Abstract
Reliability has long been recognized as a critical attribute for space systems, and potential causes of on-orbit failures
are carefully sought for identification and elimination through various types of testing prior to launch. From a statistical
or actuarial perspective, several parameters of the spacecraft, such as mission type, orbit, or spacecraft complexity, can
potentially affect the probability of failure of satellites. In this paper, we explore the correlation between satellite mass,
considered here as a proxy for size, and satellite reliability, and we investigate whether different classes of satellite,
defined in terms of mass, exhibit different reliability profiles. To this end, we first conduct nonparametric analysis of
satellite reliability based on a sample of 1,444 satellites. The satellites are organized in three main categories defined by
satellite mass (Small – Medium – Large). Three nonparametric reliability curves are thus derived. We then provide
parametric fits of the reliability curves to facilitate the identification of failure trends. We proceed to the comparative
analysis of failure profiles over time and clearly identify different reliability behaviors for the various satellite mass
categories. Finally, we discuss possible structural and causal reasons for these trends and failure differences, in
particular with respect to design, testing and procurement.
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Date Issued
2009-10
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