Title:
Value-informed space systems design and acquisition

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dc.contributor.advisor Saleh, Joseph H.
dc.contributor.author Brathwaite, Joy Danielle en_US
dc.contributor.committeeMember Belton, William
dc.contributor.committeeMember Clarke, John-Paul
dc.contributor.committeeMember Fernandez, Ismael
dc.contributor.committeeMember Schrage, Daniel P.
dc.contributor.department Aerospace Engineering en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2012-06-06T16:51:00Z
dc.date.available 2012-06-06T16:51:00Z
dc.date.issued 2011-12-16 en_US
dc.description.abstract Investments in space systems are substantial, indivisible, and irreversible, characteristics that make them high-risk, especially when coupled with an uncertain demand environment. Traditional approaches to system design and acquisition, derived from a performance- or cost-centric mindset, incorporate little information about the spacecraft in relation to its environment and its value to its stakeholders. These traditional approaches, while appropriate in stable environments, are ill-suited for the current, distinctly uncertain and rapidly changing technical, and economic conditions; as such, they have to be revisited and adapted to the present context. This thesis proposes that in uncertain environments, decision-making with respect to space system design and acquisition should be value-based, or at a minimum value-informed. This research advances the value-centric paradigm by providing the theoretical basis, foundational frameworks, and supporting analytical tools for value assessment of priced and unpriced space systems. For priced systems, stochastic models of the market environment and financial models of stakeholder preferences are developed and integrated with a spacecraft-sizing tool to assess the system's net present value. The analytical framework is applied to a case study of a communications satellite, with market, financial, and technical data obtained from the satellite operator, Intelsat. The case study investigates the implications of the value-centric versus the cost-centric design and acquisition choices. Results identify the ways in which value-optimal spacecraft design choices are contingent on both technical and market conditions, and that larger spacecraft for example, which reap economies of scale benefits, as reflected by their decreasing cost-per-transponder, are not always the best (most valuable) choices. Market conditions and technical constraints for which convergence occurs between design choices under a cost-centric and a value-centric approach are identified and discussed. In addition, an innovative approach for characterizing value uncertainty through partial moments, a technique used in finance, is adapted to an engineering context and applied to priced space systems. Partial moments disaggregate uncertainty into upside potential and downside risk, and as such, they provide the decision-maker with additional insights for value-uncertainty management in design and acquisition. For unpriced space systems, this research first posits that their value derives from, and can be assessed through, the value of information they provide. To this effect, a Bayesian framework is created to assess system value in which the system is viewed as an information provider and the stakeholder an information recipient. Information has value to stakeholders as it changes their rational beliefs enabling them to yield higher expected pay-offs. Based on this marginal increase in expected pay-offs, a new metric, Value-of-Design (VoD), is introduced to quantify the unpriced system's value. The Bayesian framework is applied to the case of an Earth Science satellite that provides hurricane information to oil rig operators using nested Monte Carlo modeling and simulation. Probability models of stakeholders' beliefs, and economic models of pay-offs are developed and integrated with a spacecraft payload generation tool. The case study investigates the information value generated by each payload, with results pointing to clusters of payload instruments that yielded higher information value, and minimum information thresholds below which it is difficult to justify the acquisition of the system. In addition, an analytical decision tool, probabilistic Pareto fronts, is developed in the Cost-VoD trade space to provide the decision-maker with additional insights into the coupling of a system's probable value generation and its associated cost risk. en_US
dc.description.degree PhD en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1853/43748
dc.publisher Georgia Institute of Technology en_US
dc.subject Joint probability distribution en_US
dc.subject Cost en_US
dc.subject Value chain en_US
dc.subject Pragamatic information en_US
dc.subject Statistical information en_US
dc.subject Value contours en_US
dc.subject Risk and uncertainty analysis en_US
dc.subject Robustness en_US
dc.subject Design switch point en_US
dc.subject Definition of value en_US
dc.subject Concept of value en_US
dc.subject Pareto optimality en_US
dc.subject System analysis en_US
dc.subject Optimization en_US
dc.subject.lcsh Decision making
dc.subject.lcsh Value engineering
dc.title Value-informed space systems design and acquisition en_US
dc.type Text
dc.type.genre Dissertation
dspace.entity.type Publication
local.contributor.advisor Saleh, Joseph H.
local.contributor.corporatename College of Engineering
local.contributor.corporatename Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering
local.relation.ispartofseries Doctor of Philosophy with a Major in Aerospace Engineering
relation.isAdvisorOfPublication dc52bd98-5d4e-4cea-93da-aac0722c9dc0
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication 7c022d60-21d5-497c-b552-95e489a06569
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication a348b767-ea7e-4789-af1f-1f1d5925fb65
relation.isSeriesOfPublication f6a932db-1cde-43b5-bcab-bf573da55ed6
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