(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010-07)
Brown, Marilyn A.; Gumerman, Etan; Baek, Youngsun; Morris, Cullen; Wang, Yu
This working paper assesses the economic potential of renewable electricity generation
in the South under alternative policy scenarios. Using a customized version of the
National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), we examine the impact of 1) expanded and
updated estimates of renewable resources, 2) a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS),
and 3) a Carbon-Constrained Future (CCF). Under the Expanded Renewables Scenario,
renewable electricity generation doubles the output of the Reference forecast for the
South. If a Federal RPS is imposed or the policies represented by our CCF scenario are
implemented, we estimate that 15% to 30% of the South’s electricity could be generated
from renewable sources. Among the renewable resources, wind, biomass, and hydro are
anticipated to provide the most generation potential. As the integration of renewable
sources expands through the modeled time horizon, wind gradually out-competes
biomass in the renewable electricity market. Cost-effective customer-owned renewables
could also contribute significantly to electricity generation by 2030 in the South, under
supportive policies.
(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010-06)
Brown, Marilyn A.; Baek, Youngsun
Transformational energy and climate policies are being debated worldwide that could have
significant impact upon the future of the forest products industry. Because woody biomass
can produce alternative transportation fuels, low-carbon electricity, and numerous other
“green” products in addition to traditional paper and lumber commodities, the future use of
forest resources is highly uncertain. Using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS),
this paper assesses the future of the forest products industry under three possible U.S. policy
scenarios: (1) a national renewable electricity standard, (2) a national policy of carbon
constraints, and (3) incentives for industrial energy efficiency. In addition, we discuss how
these policy scenarios might interface with the recently strengthened U.S. renewable fuels
standards. The principal focus is on how forest products including residues might be utilized
under different policy scenarios, and what such market shifts might mean for electricity and
biomass prices, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results underscore
the value of incentivizing energy efficiency in a portfolio of energy and climate policies in
order to moderate electricity and biomass price escalation while strengthening energy
security and reducing CO2 emissions.