(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010-07)
Brown, Marilyn A.; Gumerman, Etan; Baek, Youngsun; Morris, Cullen; Wang, Yu
This working paper assesses the economic potential of renewable electricity generation
in the South under alternative policy scenarios. Using a customized version of the
National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), we examine the impact of 1) expanded and
updated estimates of renewable resources, 2) a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS),
and 3) a Carbon-Constrained Future (CCF). Under the Expanded Renewables Scenario,
renewable electricity generation doubles the output of the Reference forecast for the
South. If a Federal RPS is imposed or the policies represented by our CCF scenario are
implemented, we estimate that 15% to 30% of the South’s electricity could be generated
from renewable sources. Among the renewable resources, wind, biomass, and hydro are
anticipated to provide the most generation potential. As the integration of renewable
sources expands through the modeled time horizon, wind gradually out-competes
biomass in the renewable electricity market. Cost-effective customer-owned renewables
could also contribute significantly to electricity generation by 2030 in the South, under
supportive policies.