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School of Public Policy

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search.filters.applied.f.advisor: Brown, Marilyn A. × End date: 2011 × Start date: 2010 × Item Type: Publication ×

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    Responsiveness of residential electricity demand to changes in price, information, and policy
    (Georgia Institute of Technology, 2011-04-04) Baek, Youngsun
    This study analyzes consumers' behavioral responsiveness to changes in price and policy regarding residential electricity consumption, using a hybrid method of econometric analyses and energy market simulations with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). First, this study estimates price elasticities of residential electricity demand with the most recent Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) data, collected in 2005, employing a conventional econometric model and a discrete/continuous choice model. Prior to the NEMS experiments with price shocks and consumers' behavioral features, this study uses NEMS to examine how energy policies would affect changes in retail electricity price in the future. When climate policies are implemented nationally, electricity prices are estimated to increase by 17% in 2030 with a carbon cap and trade initiatives and by 4% with Renewable Electricity Standards (RES). The short-run elasticity of demand estimated from the 2005 RECS is found to be in a range of -0.81 ~ -0.66, which is more elastic than the current NEMS assumption of -0.15. The 2005 RECS dataset details information about American households' energy consumption. This rich source of micro-level data complements the existing econometric analysis based on time series data. Electricity price (either census-division average price or household average price), annual income and number of rooms are found to be three major determinants of the level of electricity consumption. The difference in short-run price elasticity leads to a difference in social welfare estimates of energy policies and energy market forecasts. This study suggests that the estimate of social welfare loss caused by electricity price increase is overestimated if the elasticity is assumed to be smaller than the actual responsiveness. Supposing that 1) the short-run elasticity of -0.66 reflects the actual consumers' responsiveness to price changes in the present and future and 2) retail electricity prices permanently increase by 10%, the welfare loss caused by the price increases would be estimated 0.9 billion dollars less than the current estimates with the elasticity of -0.15. This result suggests that if people are assumed to be more elastic to price signals, the time it takes for a policy to accomplish its goal could be shorter. In addition to assessing potential savings expected from consumers' behavioral changes with the concept of price elasticity of demand in neoclassical economic theory, this study reviews economic and non-economic theories about behavioral features of energy consumers and discusses how existing information programs could be improved.
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    Sustainable metropolitan development: a look at planning and development in Atlanta, Georgia
    (Georgia Institute of Technology, 2011-03-30) Chandler, Sharon
    This study analyzes the relationship between comprehensive planning and actual development (as measured by changes in welfare) for 158 jurisdictions in metropolitan Atlanta. Relying on ecological economics for a method to measure welfare and planning literature for a method to evaluate the content of comprehensive plans, this dissertation uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. Development is measured for four dimensions of sustainable development (economic, social, environment, and resource) using a modified Genuine Progress Indicator, and the metropolitan Atlanta area is found to have had weakly sustainable development from 1980 to 2000. In all places, economic welfare increased and resource welfare decreased. Social and environmental development had mixed results with about half of jurisdictions showing increases in environmental welfare while less than a handful showed increases in social welfare. Comprehensive plans were found to have a range of overall plan quality scores (the average of scores of policy statements in a plan) from 1.3 to 3.2 with a mean of 2.3 out of a maximum of 4. Of 2564 policy statements, 541 (or 21\%) were high quality statements scoring 4/4 points while 708 (or 28\%) received no quality points - they were weakly worded, vague, and not measurable. The average commitment to sustainable development (percent of policy statements in a plan that are related to a principle of sustainable development) is 39\% with a minumum of 9\% and a maximum of 80\%. Plan policy statements coded for principles of sustainable development were found to have significantly higher quality scores while overall plan quality scores were not found to be correlated to the plan commmitment to sustainable development; this implies that plans are generally either rigid (having highs scores) or visionary (having high commitment to sustainable development) overall. Plan quality was found to have a significant negative relationship with sustainable development, when dimensions are considered. This relationship was stronger for plans completed within the study time period (before 2000), suggesting that this relationship may be causal. The negative result is unexpected and leads to a rejection of the hypothesis that high quality planning would be significantly and positively related to development. On the other hand, plan commitment to sustainable development was found to be weakly positively related to sustainable development although the dimensions of this relationship changed over time. As such, the hypothesis that commitment to sustainable development would be significantly and positively related to development cannot be rejected. These results hold even when looking at distinct growth patterns across the metropolitan region, suggesting that the relationships between plans and development may be applicable to other places.