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ItemCash Flow Trends and Their Fundamental Drivers: Comprehensive Industry Review (Qtr 3, 2009)(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-12) Mulford, Charles W. ; Miller, Brandon
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ItemCash Flow Trends and Their Fundamental Drivers: Comprehensive Industry Review (Qtr 2, 2009)(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-10) Mulford, Charles W. ; Miller, Brandon
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ItemCash Flow Trends and Their Fundamental Drivers: A Continuing Look Summary Review (Qtr 2, 2009)(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-09) Mulford, Charles W. ; Parkhurst, Andrew ; Miller, Brandon
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ItemCash Flow Reporting by Financial Companies: A Look at the Commercial Banks(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-07) Mulford, Charles W. ; Comiskey, Eugene E.In this research report we survey the cash flow reporting practices for a sample of fifteen of the largest, independent and publicly-traded U.S. commercial banks. In the process, we find many reasons why cash flows are typically not important measures of financial performance for the banks. For our sample, we adjust reported operating cash flows for classification differences, for non-cash transfers of loans and investments between categories that impact operating cash flow, and for the effects of acquisitions. In the adjustment process we find some notable changes to operating cash flow. In particular, we see declines in adjusted operating cash flow for Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo, and increases in adjusted operating cash flow for Citigroup, Fifth Third Bancorp, KeyCorp, PNC Financial and SunTrust Banks. We seek your comments on how bank cash flows should be measured. Analysts who evaluate the financial performance of commercial banks will want to give consideration to adjustments such as these when examining bank finances. Bank regulators and the FASB may also want to consider these adjustments and the somewhat limited disclosures of information relevant for the adjustments that are presently provided by the banks. More detailed information on items such as brokered deposits and acquisition-related cash flows would be helpful.
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ItemCash Flow Trends and Their Fundamental Drivers: A Continuing Look Summary Review (Qtr 1, 2009)(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-06) Mulford, Charles W. ; Surani, Sohel ; Blake, JasonIn this research report we provide a “flash” measure of free cash margin for all non-financial companies measured through March, 2009. We found that for the twelve months ended March, 2009, free cash margin improved to 4.60%, up from the recession low of 4.12% reached in December 2008, but down slightly from the 4.72% registered during the twelve months ended March, 2008. This is a particularly striking development in that it is the first twelve-month period since December 2007 that we have seen improvement in free cash margin. The implication is that the firms in our sample are in the process of turning the corner in terms of financial performance. It also provides support for the improvement in stock prices we have seen since early March 2009. In the March 2009 reporting period, free cash margin improved even as profitability, as measured by operating cushion, declined. Driving the improvement in free cash margin was a small reduction in capital spending and a more sizable decrease in the cash cycle. Firms are truly becoming “lean and mean” and dealing well with a noted decline in profitability. We look forward to reviewing the data for the June 2009 quarter to see if the improvements noted in March are continuing. Confirmation of the end of the recession on a cash flow basis will require an improving cash margin driven more by improving profitability, as evidenced by improving operating cushion, and less through reductions in capital spending and the cash cycle.
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ItemCash Flow Trends and Their Fundamental Drivers: A Continuing Look Comprehensive Industry Review (Qtr 4, 2008)(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-05) Mulford, Charles W. ; Surani, Sohel ; Blake, JasonThis research report is one of a series that looks at the cash flow performance of Corporate America. Our primary focus is on free cash margin, or free cash flow measured as a percent of revenue. We also look at the drivers or components of free cash margin in an effort to determine factors behind observed changes. In the current study we conduct a comprehensive review of 20 four-digit GICS non-financial industries and their 61 six-digit GICS sub-industries for a series of rolling twelve-month periods from the first quarter of 2000 through the fourth quarter of 2008. Recession notwithstanding, due to declining capital expenditures and reduced working capital requirements, free cash margin held up reasonably well during the twelve months ended December 2008. The metric declined to 4.12%, down from a high of 5.14% reached in June 2004, and more recently, the 4.93% level reached in December 2007 and 4.44% in September 2008. With free cash margin at 4.12%, corporate America is generating 4.12 cents of free cash flow for every dollar of revenue generated. The number of industries experiencing declining free cash margin increased from our last report. For our sample as a whole, free cash margin last bottomed at 2.43% during the 2001 recession. We continue to believe that during the current recession, free cash margin will likely decline to levels that are at or below those found in the 2001 recession, suggesting a continuing contraction of free cash flow of 50% or more from current levels. However, a continuing focus on maintaining low working capital levels and reduced capital expenditures may leave companies better off on a cash flow basis than they were in 2001.
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ItemCash Flow Trends and Their Fundamental Drivers: A Continuing Look Comprehensive Industry Review (Qtr 3, 2008)(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-04) Mulford, Charles W. ; Surani, Sohel ; Blake, JasonThis research report is one of a series that looks at the cash flow performance of Corporate America. Our primary focus is on free cash margin, or free cash flow measured as a percent of revenue. We also look at the drivers or components of free cash margin in an effort to determine factors behind observed changes. In the current study we conduct a comprehensive review of 20 four-digit GICS non-financial industries and their 61 six-digit GICS sub-industries for a series of rolling twelve-month periods from the first quarter of 2000 through the third quarter of 2008. After bottoming below 2.5% during the 2001 recession, free cash margin has improved markedly and has remained relatively stable above 4.5% since 2002, declining to just below 4.5% for the twelve months ended September 2008. Our expectation is that during the current recession, free cash margin will likely decline to levels that are at or below those found in the 2001 recession. The implication is that over the next year or so, median free cash flow could fall by 50% or more. In this report we provide a summary of our results and identify several representative companies. Please refer to the various industry reports that accompany this introduction for industry details.
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ItemCash Flow Trends and Their Fundamental Drivers: A Continuing Look The S&P 500 Non-financials (Qtr 3, 2008)(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-03) Mulford, Charles W. ; Surani, SohelThis research report is one of a series that looks at the cash flow performance of Corporate America. Our primary focus is on free cash margin, or free cash flow measured as a percent of revenue. In the current study we look at the non-financials of the S&P 500. During the twelve months ended September 2008, free cash margin for the S&P 500 nonfinancials declined to 6.70% from 7.13% for the twelve months ended September 2007. Interestingly, operating cash margin improved slightly during the same period, helped by improvements in operating cushion and the operating cycle. It appears that increased capital spending pushed net cash margin lower even as operating cash margin improved. As a point of reference, free cash margin troughed at 4.36% in the 2001 recession. Thus, by all indications, we can expect a significant decline in free cash margin from current levels. While we do not know how far free cash margin might decline, at the present, with a median $666.7 million on hand, these firms had ample cash and short-term investments to help them weather the financial storm.
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ItemCapital Intensive Firms and the Risk of Increased Tax Payments in a Recession(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-02) Mulford, Charles W. ; Blake, Jason
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ItemCash Flow Trends in Several Technology Industries(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-01) Mulford, Charles W. ; Surani, SohelThe Cash Flow Growth Profile(TM) measures the capacity of a firm to generate cash flow as it grows revenue. The metric is forward looking and reports the amount of incremental cash flow that can be expected for any measured amount of growth in revenue. In this report, using data obtained through the second quarter of 2008, we examine the Cash Flow Growth ProfileTM of five technology industries: computer hardware, computer software, information technology services, telecommunications equipment, and semiconductors and related capital equipment. We look at trends in the Profile for the industries and for 59 individual companies. In examining the Cash Flow Growth Profile(TM), the drivers or determinants of core operating cash flow and free cash flow are highlighted. Looking at the industry data, there is little evidence of a decline in operating performance through the second quarter of 2008. Indeed, only two industries, Computer Hardware and Information Technology Services saw declines in their Free Cash Growth Profile(TM) for the twelve months ending with the second quarter of 2008 from the same period in 2007.