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Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering

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Author: Da Silva Oliveira, Thayna × End date: 2023 × Start date: 2020 × search.filters.applied.f.resourcesubtype: Thesis ×

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A Methodology for Demand Assessment and Integrated Schedule Design and Fleet Assignment Applied to Thin-Haul Scheduled Operations

2021-07-07 , Da Silva Oliveira, Thayna

The thin-haul market is characterized by short-range routes with low demand, occasionally served by commuter airlines. Historically, commuter operators have not been able to maintain profitable operations in this market, migrating to longer and more profitable routes throughout the years. As a result, many small cities have lost their air service and airports have become underutilized. Aiming to change this scenario, many studies have focused on the development of vehicle technologies to promote thin-haul scheduled operations and the assessment of potential demand. This thesis investigates thin-haul operations from the airline's point of view, aiming to understand how flight operations optimization can aid commuter operators to improve profitability and, ultimately, to restore the air service to small communities. Despite the low individual demand of each thin-haul route, an opportunity for profitability may exist if the origin-destination pairs are effectively served. This can be achieved if the airline makes the right schedule decisions, i.e., strategically defines when and where to fly, as well as the assignment of the aircraft with the right capacity to the right flight leg. These problems are part of the schedule planning process and are known in the literature as schedule design and fleet assignment (SD&FA). However, the lack of historical data and baseline schedule for thin-haul operations imposes challenges for demand estimation and SD&FA applications. Therefore, the contribution of this thesis is in the development of a methodology for demand assessment and integrated SD&FA applied to thin-haul operations that can overcome the aforementioned challenges. This is achieved by investigating thin-haul demand based on the competition with alternative modes of transport and by coupling the current SD&FA techniques with the concept of hourly demand distribution. The proposed methodology is implemented in a framework that allows different operational scenarios to be evaluated based on the operations metrics of effectiveness, which includes the airline profit, the potential thin-haul demand served, and the passenger time savings. Such framework enables stakeholders to understand the key elements that lead to profitable thin-haul operations, the extent to which the air service can be expanded, and the potential benefits for passengers and cities. The experiments conducted in this thesis demonstrated that the methodology can successfully perform SD&FA applied to thin-haul operations and determine the true market share, i.e., the potential demand that can be profitably served by an air carrier. Additional case studies highlighted that more efficient operations can be achieved if airlines adopt a mix of point-to-point and connecting flights, and that hub location and aircraft attributes can significantly impact the effectiveness of the operations.

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