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School of Economics

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Ivan Allen College of Liberal Arts

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 70

Chinese wheat price analysis - with application of cointegration and Granger causality test

(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013-11-20) Guo, Yuanxiang

Traditional demonstration of price fluctuation in the wheat market, by the theory of supply and demand is not comprehensive enough. With limited understanding of macroeconomic effects on the wheat market, accurate prediction of wheat price is impossible. Given the Chinese self—sustainable food policy, grain imports is a sensitive topic which may incur fierce argument. In this paper, however, I emphasize effect of exchange rate on nominal wheat price. By application of the cointegration theory, CPI shows slight negative correlation with nominal wheat price, yet GDP and population move in the same direction as the wheat price. The cointegration study of exchange rate implies, with appreciating Chinese RMB, domestic buyers incline to purchase wheat from the cheaper foreign market. According to the Granger causality test, the whole package of variables suggests significant causal relation with the wheat price.
Cross-country convergence in income inequality

(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012-11-13) Miao, Xing

Neoclassical models imply convergence of the entire distribution, not just the mean income levels. In this paper, we analyze convergence in income inequality by using the considerably enlarged data bases, from the World Bank (Povcal) and the World Institute for Development Economic Research (WIDER). Convergence in gini indices of inequality is tested across 55 countries. We consider three sample subsets; one for the developing countries, second of the developed countries and third with all countries together. We test for convergence in gini indices over a period of 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years. Additionally we use cross-section (OLS),panel (GMM) and a novel OLS estimation methods. Our results uniformly indicate that inequality levels among developing countries converged. Evidence of convergence is weaker among developed countries. Developing countries appear to converge faster than developed countries.
Investing in high-speed passenger rail networks: insights from complex international supply chain, technologies and multiproduct firms

(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012-05-07) Zheng, Wen

The growth of population and business during the rapid urbanization process in the twentieth century has generated significant demand for transportation. As the demands have grown, road and air transportation are suffering from significant congestion and delays. Continuing expansion of highways and airports has become both expensive and difficult, along with not being able to provide adequate solutions to the growing congestion. One alternative, which is being pursued by many countries, is to invest in efficient high-speed rail networks to meet the pressing demand for mass passenger transportation. This alternative is also one that may have beneficial impacts by reducing energy consumption and alleviating some of the environmental concerns. But to make these infrastructure investments, governments need to make difficult decisions due to the complexity of the industry and technologies involved. This thesis examines decision making by government for such investments. In order to carefully study the industry, we use a two part approach. First, we examine the HSR industry supply-chain. We create a detailed taxonomy of the industry supply-chain and highlight various aspects of the advanced technologies being used, the sophisticated multiproduct nature of the firms, and the diverse international location of the companies. Second, we gather information on all the international HSR contracts between 2001-2011. These contracts enable us to examine business strategies pursued by the major HSR trainset suppliers and component manufacturers, insights into the size of the orders and type of trainsets being delivered, and the formation of partnerships and collaborations to meet the complex demands imposed by Governments when they invite bids for these expensive projects. A detailed examination of the supply-chain shows that the core technologies and competencies are highly concentrated in those countries which historically have had high demand for high-speed rail. Germany, Japan, France, for example, have the highest number of trainset and component suppliers. In more recent years, South Korea and China have emerged as the new frontiers of trainset and components suppliers. This implies that countries who are outside of this group are highly dependent on either importing these technologies and investments or make a concerted effort to develop them via partnerships and technology transfer agreements. Our examination of contracts shows that the size of HSR investment order is important for both business and government strategy. The order size determines the extent of domestic content and production. While many components will inevitably be imported, a larger order size may allow for various components to be manufactured domestically. Order size also appears to influence the nature of partnerships among the firms in the industry. We observe a growing number of HSR investment partnerships among trainset suppliers over time, possibly due to the need to pool risk in these highly complex and uncertain investments, as well as the changing competitive dynamic of HSR markets.
Timing effects of carbon mitigation and solar radiation management policies

(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012-04-06) Qu, Jingwen

We study timing effects of carbon mitigation and solar radiation management (SRM) policies for correlated pollutants, CO₂ and SO₂. We show that national levels of carbon and sulfur emissions quotas and SRM implementation are positively correlated with each other. First-mover advantages exist when deciding both carbon quotas and SRM levels. Moreover, we use an example to illustrate that if international equity is considered, governments would be willing to choose SRM levels before carbon quotas since it yields higher payoffs and less acid rain and droughts damages. This timing was neglected by all previous theoretical economic models on geoengineering.
UNICEF and ministry of education girls' education project in turkey: "Haydi Kizlar Okula?" Did it work? What is the aftermath?

(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012-01-12) Ergün, Saliha

This study investigates whether the girls' education project "Haydi Kzlar Okula!" was able to increase girls' schooling and to what extent it was effective. In Turkey, there is still gender disparity in primary education although it is compulsory. "Haydi Kzlar Okula!" is UNICEF and Turkish Ministry of Education's joint project, which aims to increase girls' primary enrollment. The project consists of increasing public awareness, free books and incentives (in the form of conditional cash transfer) for female students. To find the magnitude of the program's impact, data is collected from Turkish and European statistical databases and a panel data analysis is employed. The results show that if the program has been implemented in a province, girls' enrollment rate increases by 1.310-2 units and total schooling increases by 1.410-2 units. Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) found to have a bigger impact on girls' enrollment rates than total enrollment rates but the impact is not statistically significant. When a dummy for poverty is included in the model, then CCT becomes significant and the impact can be interpreted as; 1% increase in the conditional cash paid to a province results in 1.310-4 units increase in girls' enrollment rates. It is concluded that the project's impact is statistically significant but the magnitude is smaller than expected. Improvements are needed for increasing the effectiveness of the project. New cash transfer schemes should be implemented and community contribution should be encouraged. Another result of the analysis show that school buildings and adult literacy have greater impacts than the girls' education project.
Analysis of four alternative energy mutual funds

(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010-11-18) Selik, Michael Andrew

We analyze four alternative energy mutual funds using a multi-factor capital asset pricing model with generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic errors (CAPM-GARCH). Our findings will help portfolio managers and others who seek to predict the return on investment in alternative energy firms. We find that alternative energy firms tend to be riskier than the general US stock market, have a low, but significant and positive response to oil prices, and have a significantly high and negative response to the value of the dollar relative to other currencies. Our results also suggest that alternative energy firms should hedge against currency exchange rate fluctuation.
The diffusion of health information technology: practice characteristics and competition as drivers of adoption

(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010-04-22) Callaway, Brant

This paper considers the adoption of Health Information Technology (HIT) by physician clinics with ten or fewer physicians. The paper considers the theoretical economics literature on technology adoption for a new technology and has a place in the empirical tests of these models. The two major hypotheses tested in the paper are that the probability of adopting HIT increases with the number of physicians working at the clinic and if the clinic is part of a chain of clinics, and that it also increases with increased competition at the market level measured by the number of clinics per 10,000 residents in a county. To test these hypotheses, the paper first estimates a baseline logit model followed by three hazard rate models. In each case, clinic size is found to have positive though not significant effect on the probability of adoption (in the logit model) or to decrease the predicted time to adoption for the clinic (in the hazard rate models), being in a chain of clinics is found to have a strong positive and significant on the probability of adoption, and increased competition is found to have a positive though not significant effect on the probability of adoption.
Empirical analysis on random walk behavior of foreign exchange rates

(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010-04-12) Zou, Shanshan

This thesis conducts a comprehensive examination on the random walk behavior of 29 foreign exchange rates over the period of floating exchange regime, using variance-ratio tests. The cross-country and time-series test show that random walk model cannot be rejected on majority, and the random walk behavior is quite volatile across the whole floating exchange regime period. It then goes further to explore possible factors that can explain the probability of rejection/ non-rejections on random walk model using linear as well as nonlinear probability models, and find that the factors such as capital openness and investment-to-trade ratio significantly increases the chance of its exchange rate exhibiting random walk behavior.
Islamic institutions, the status of women, and economic growth

(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010-01-19) Glover, Michael Emanuel

Within the sample of Muslim-majority countries, the links between how explicitly "Islamic" a society is, the status of women, and economic and other societal outcomes is explored. A country is considered more or less "Islamic" depending upon if Islam is the official state religion, if Islamic law forms a basis for the legal system, and the degree to which the country has rejected or maintained traditional Islamic norms such as regarding the acceptance of polygamy and the legal obligation of women to wear the veil in public. It is found that if a country is more "Islamic," it tends to also have worse outcomes along different dimensions, such as degree of authoritarianism and absence of women's rights. However, focusing exclusively on whether the country has Islamic law as a basis of the legal system, these countries tend to be richer. An extremity index is composed, which contains only variables which describe the status of women in Muslim countries, along educational and legal dimensions. It is found in regressions that this extremity index is a statistically significant predictor of economic growth, where higher extremity leads to lower GDP growth rates. Oil is still an extremely important factor in explaining the variation in GDP levels and growth rates in the Muslim world.
Effect of oil prices on returns to alternative energy investments

(Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009-12-02) Schmitz, Anthony

This paper presents the role of alternative energy technologies in displacing fossil fuels as the world's primary energy source. To that end, a CAPM-GARCH multi-factor market model is used to investigate the relationship between returns on oil and alternative energy stocks. Results show that an increase in oil prices and the broad market have a statistically significant and positive impact on alternative energy stock returns. Furthermore, the alternative energy sector is substantially more risky than the broad market but has the potential for higher returns. This highlights the infancy and inherently risky nature of the alternative energy sector today, but demonstrates the potential for substantial future investment gain as alternative energy technologies become more mature and widely available. Interestingly, estimation of the alternative energy index model indicated the presence of abnormal returns which was not the case for the solar index model, implying that the abnormal returns were generated from a different sectoral component of the alternative energy index.