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>> More you were not thought of that is the motto Hello everybody. What an absolute pleasure to have my my my friend and colleague mt of Uganda with us today. Mado as I think you will all be in a minute is it just an extraordinary individual with an incredible perspective of what's happening in the world.

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Like me here I grew up in Spain in fact he did his undergraduate in Spain and like me he came to the us for graduate school. To Yale University for his b.s.d. and then and then he has taught had at mit in this one school. Alternately he landed at at Wharton where he has had any press of career including by the way his service as the head of the border Institute of International Business which was a sort of the perfect fit given given his global profile and his global interest he has written amazing pieces on the global economy which I think it exposed him to have really all sorts of perspectives from you know what's happening in you and The Globe and he has a whole host of interest including by the way he has a piece that he wrote he loves architecture many things I mean where he's an incredibly.

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Intellectual with. A perspective of a whole host of things and I was really I have not you know that he was working on this project and when I saw I was like my gosh I need to get my hands on it and sure enough he was kind enough to send me a copy and I've loved the book is to.

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Ne 30 the subtitle is How today's biggest trains will collide and reshape the future of everything now all of my colleagues at Georgia Tech know that we just went through a process of strategic planning my 1st year or so back to George attack which was very interesting because our timeline is 2030.

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No I was a little bit concerned about inviting you mono I'm not sure that all of the sudden maybe it was would just cast your projections for the future we may need to go back and change our strategic plan hopefully hopefully not but anyway so I'm going to this is going to be a very informal conversation I really appreciate your time with us I've asked you a few questions about books but if you don't mind I'm pushing to maybe sort of get to the how does that affect higher education given that that is an industry of great importance for a for a.

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Lot of books and I know of course as a as a so-so exams you start with you know you have identified a number of a number of trends in one of them has to do with. The Margraf you write which I guess is the most accurate of the social sciences in terms of its our capacity to predict the future and in one of the of the 1st trends that you indicate is this idea of fewer babies how.

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The population growth even though we're still growing. And I guess we now have surpassed 8000000000 that it's sort of slowing down virtually all over the world except for Africa where where the train has left the station don't help us understand you know why or why this matters so much so we're sitting here in Philadelphia and let's not why should we care about the 6 them a graphic explosion in an effort.

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Yes thank you for inviting me for to for this event it's really an honor and I wish I could be in Atlanta today with you and with all of the participants. But I'm here in Philadelphia I'm a basement at home and of course it is really great to be able to use this technology that we have nowadays to essentially 18 Well I'm sure it's going to be a very intellectual conversation here about what's going on in the world and how the future will be shaped so you were referring to the more graphic names and you know the fact that this is the 1st important trend here is that as time goes by we're having fewer and fewer babies that makes a big difference 10 years down the road 20 years down the road because if every generation is smaller than the preceding generation.

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That makes for a very different dynamic and of course I'm sure in a moment you can ask me also about life expectancy the fact that we're living longer and longer a stand by because it isn't the combination of those 2 things that we're going to see all of these massive changes but if we stay with the number of babies being born so the fertility rate over the lifetime of a woman was the average number of children well we have a really big parts of the world where the number is less than 2 meaning we are below replacement and that's obviously the case in Japan in China and South Korea in Europe Russia but also here in the United States and in Canada Australia now in Africa you said you put it really well in Africa the population is still expanding because they're having an average of $4.00 children per woman as we speak but I should also point out that that number is also the rapping in Africa police dropping from a very very high level but just to put things in more simple terms when you and I were born in Spain right back in the sixty's well in India the average woman would have 6 to 7 children and today stooping 3 right which is very.

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Close to the replacement level and quite frankly somebody had asked me when I was in school in Spain in the 1970 s. whether during my lifetime that would happen in India I would have told you no wait right no way India is going to be on a level of $2.00 children per woman in terms of the fertility rate and the implications why does this matter will consumer markets financial markets they all depend on not just the number of people but also the age of people right because we have a very different pattern of consumption and also savings and investing behavior.

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As we go through the different stages in life and of course we can also discuss the implications for polytheists we can discuss the implications for geopolitics for the balance of your political power in the world at the end of the day I'm not going to argue that demography is destiny you know that famous phrase but everything at the end of the day depends on the model for the thing is that there are ways in which the model a few of them would have to commence can change.

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And I'm sure we're going to get into that so so it's destiny up to a point because we can also change some background factors so that the morganatic trends also take a turn one way or the other before we move to other trends and if we if we again bring it back to our business higher education universities right of us attracts about a 1000000 foreign students every year they bring the ends of dollars to the economy and very importantly of course they bring talent.

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Which as you know and as you just passed in the book that we many of that much of that talent that leads to some of the most successful enterprises and in America they distill and it's just well and you and I are slightly biased because we're both immigrants so where would they look to that to that that the group h..

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For the 1st time in decades the number of foreign students has declined coming into the u.s. at a time where you can look at these trends as like me better find ways to start finding students outside of the United States because the overall market right here at home is only going to be either right or theirs did not stranger where you are.

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You know look I would make 3 very quick points the 1st is you're absolutely right I mean higher education is a major industry that generates you know both direct and indirect jobs and make such a big contribution to the palace of payments of the u.s. actually went back to calculate these and in the service sector in the u.s. the biggest surplus of the country has is in financial services and the 2nd biggest surplus is in higher education is that right yes in the in the I'm happy to send you the other numbers on that but it's really impressive but you're right I mean as I said earlier every interaction that is now born is a smaller than the preceding one so the fewer people that unless we increase the proportion of people who go to college but it's already rather high we're going to see that the mystically there is going to be smaller and smaller a smaller age cohorts approaching college age right this is very clear now at the same time the least huge demand from abroad right in terms of education especially those parts of the world South Asia the Middle East tough on Africa where the number of young people continues to expand because once again remember enough to cover every woman we will have 4 and a half babies being born on average right so I think it's a matter of reorienting right I mean we're not going to have a lot of students coming from Europe right we're not going to have a lot of students coming from other aging countries but there are very young countries in the world but in the other thing that I would add if you allow me is that at the same time that this is happening we also see that we're living longer and not only that another very important trend the technology is making knowledge obsolete much faster than before though if instead of living on average 50 years or 60 years we've 80 or 84 here in the United States if instead of that we also see that pick Knology makes whatever we learn when we are 20 or 22 like your typical students at Georgia Tech well.

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If you just do the numbers then I think it's easy to realize that we're not be able to be just in one thread in one line of work in one career for our entire life if our life is going to last so long and technology is going to make our knowledge of Salit much faster than in the past so the combination of those 2 things I think means for universities here in this country is that we're going to start to think about lifelong learning so people coming back to university several times not just once or twice right up when they're very young 1st for college and then maybe for a guy who a degree but maybe after 20 years of working in let's say in chemical engineering people would realize my goodness how this is an intelligence now you know makes it really hard to be a chemical engineer and again this is just a hypothetical example but I need to go back to school when I when I'm 40 and then maybe acquire knowledge in a different line of places so I think that's going to be the biggest impact for higher education we need to be I think of much more flexible than we've been so far much more creative.

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And thinking that our customers so to speak I'm no longer just people in the late teens or early twenty's or got students in their mid twenty's I think we have to expand that concept there and he so doing I think we're going to have much more the man than in the past that very interesting about where it.

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You might find these numbers. Compelling sort of case of what you're projecting into the future George attack yes or no and I mean this is this is new for me so I'm not even you know this is not a personal brag but it's an maybe and it's additional back.

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We ran this this grand experiment of trying to produce a master's of science in computer science that was done entirely online at a fraction of the cost of coming for a normal degree at Georgia Tech you can do the George attack you know Top Rank openers as masters for less than $7000.00 it is now the largest Masters of Science in the galaxy it is it is like approaching nothing now $12000.00 students will launch another one in Dayton and the next in the one in cyber security together those 3 programs now are $16000.00 search it's if there are actually over a 3rd of the enrollment Edgers I think we're going to then realize that so so you know that it wouldn't necessarily maybe predict a trend we didn't think it was going to be that here but I guess our experience basically supports whatever just it and this is just and these are mit mit career folks right it's not even the Yeah Yeah Yeah we have another similar experience but very very small scale here at the University of Pennsylvania that we launched a couple of years ago that b.a. So the basic on the guy that degree and partly online for people who could not go to school or when they were teenagers right and there's many small scale only a 100 students because we experimented with it but I think that's the future I mean the future is to again think about other kinds of students think about other stages in life think about the career switchers right not just the people who don't know what they're going to do what they're interested maybe in technology so they go through Georgia fake and they haven't really worked before because they when they're straight from high school.

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So I think that we need to diversify our audience I think if we want to remain relevant also because I think that the economy's evolving in ways that essentially make it very difficult for somebody to be in the same line of business or work or 50 years with just not wow you know 4 years of education right here on the university level I'm curious was there a mutiny among a lot of night when that online Masterson was announced.

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Well I'm not sure about alumni but I can tell you that there was going to get this is some of the found the part of the faculty So I think that program a fact lies that I think in fact that later on today in a couple of hours I have my weekly office hours with them and it's you know this better than I do I mean it's white astonished in the extent to which we the faculty I mean I am faculty member of the sle sometimes we all want to change right and obviously we have the faculty you cannot change the university.

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So yes a lot of skepticism among faculty members and I hear also noises from alarms it's like hey I mean this is kind of undermining the value of my degree Right right right I mean you're with us the you know we come back to this because I'm very interested to see Welcome back to the idea of what happens in higher ed after after that but before that and before we move away from demographics you have an interesting discussion in the book about immigration and by the way immigration you you put the numbers I mean it's not going to solve.

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Immigration is not they know just to solve the population imbalance between but that is going to be an important important mechanism to satisfy the need for talent in the workforce in places like the United States and yet it is. Such a politically loaded idea of allowing more people going once in one's country.

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Some little bit about what you have found I mean given all that all the value that there quantitatively and objectively integration brains to a country like the u.s. and still we are always react against yeah well as you know historically United States we've always gone through ups and downs in terms of the both the number of immigrants coming in and the at the right simulation but right now I think we're not a low point in the sense that there's a lot of up on Nickleby.

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I think that immigration I think a lot of it has to do with this technician of the middle class quite frankly too I think to the extent that the middle class in United States has not been expanding their search of numbers and also in terms of the average income then people feel threatened by you know people who come from abroad but the benefits of immigration if true of all over us right so number one most immigrants tend to be in their twenty's or thirty's I confidently to the popular myth but they tend to be people who work I suppose to people and pay taxes or make contributions are supposed to people who claim benefits from government services right so they make a net fiscal contribution to the government at all levels local state and national That's one big benefit the other big benefit is that we heard to rebalance the h.-a structure in terms of the buy ability of the Social Security system.

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So as I think everybody knows by the year 2029 now the crest the Social Security has they say that the key financial ratio will but will fall below one which means that you will the system will not be viable so if you have more you know younger people who don't clean as many benefits but at the same time work and make contributions and you can rebalance and then the 3rd thing is entrepreneurship take place for entrepreneurs and look.

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From the proverbial dry cleaner or restaurant pizza restaurant all the way up to the high tech startup. Immigrants play a disproportionate row of United States I mean you can name. You know companies such as Tesla or are Google founded or co-founded by foreigners. But you see among the companies valued at a $1000000000.00 or more the unicorn's you know nearly 40 percent have been founded or co-founded United States by immigrants so their contribution to entrepreneurship is really important and I would like people to think about the following migration itself is an act of entrepreneurship right because you have to take the initiative you have to leave your culture behind and go to another country and therefore I think it should come as no surprise that immigrants are more entrepreneurial when it comes to the economy.

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And the benefits are you know a lot of the place and once again immigrants are job creators. Again the conventional wisdom now because of this political backlash is that immigrants come here to steal jobs away and that's not true right there mainly job creators are very fast and so that's one of the I don't know if it looking into your crystal ball.

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We can project whether. We're the countries will come to terms with that and really will open up in we always compare ourselves with Canada where right now with with current regulations if you if you get a degree from certain college. You know you automatically get your green card tables your diploma right where we welcome you here I mean something that is unthinkable in the us I mean you get in there would be a sort of a I don't know if instead of wasting a part of a party or race to the top if it competition for immigrant talent in the world or is that too naive Well I think there's definitely competition for highly qualified.

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Talent right immigration and as you just pointed out Canada has been playing. Very strong you've not got the rain you know it's getting interesting now because China is also trying to participate in that kind of a trend and you know unfortunately here for political reasons the United States I think we're falling behind you know it's very difficult as you know to put the politics and once again you know we've gone over recent you know decades in the United States who are sometimes in this for the races so if history is of any guide you know the cycles right are about 2025 to 30 years right so right now with or without a low when the at the few seconds the immigration are quite widely shared among at least I would say half of the American public right.

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But if the solution is self any guy I think that you know in the next 51015 years you know the trend will be just the opposite and we will probably you know enter another purely which most people in the United States will understand the benefits of migration and policies will be I think more open to immigration so.

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And other trend you're talking about and you foreshadowed it or was you call it great is the new black I love that that title of that's after right we're getting older we our societies are again older and you're thinking well that's a start giving us ideas about where the business is going to be and what technologies might need to be developed are going to bite him and people at George attack who are a bunch of white entrepreneurial who are thinking about Ok what in what areas should I start from scratch and you know you talk about a whole host of technologies that might might prove to be very interesting going forward because of that from from you know even apparel or you know shows that are more comfortable to more sophisticated things like.

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Like more sophisticated technologies forms of entertainment all sorts of services any any Again looking into your crystal ball in areas that that should be it captivate the attention of to be entrepreneurs or is there I know that's a great question out there and I think that the evidence is you know relatively straightforward.

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Population trends indicate that you know increasingly we have more people about the age of 60 right. Now and as a percentage of the population because remember we're having fewer babies so the younger generations are smaller the so much so that for the 1st time around that you have 2030 hence the title of the book the market segment.

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The consumer market segment of people about the age of 60 will be the largest in the market and this has never happened so this is going to happen 1st in Japan within the next 2 or 3 years then in China then in Western Europe and finally here in United States all of that within the next decade and this is important because think about entrepreneurs but not only that also think about brands think about stop these companies for the last 100 years they've had the younger consumer middle age when she meant it when these thirty's as they're kind of it every product every service was you know the signs for that now that's going to have to change and let me give you another fact that I think is really important human ited States 80 percent 8080 percent of the net worth is owned by people about the age of 60.

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Average in the world is about 60 percent of the u.s. is a little bit of a of an outlier and I don't mean to say of course that everybody about the age of 60 s. Ritz there is inequality as we know and that's another very very important trend and I'm sure with we talk about.

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But it tells you something about where the purchasing power is and so in terms of fields of technology in addition to the ones that you mentioned I would say robotics is going to be huge Well look at the facts once again a lot of people have R.V.'s of 60708090 at some point they will need care many of them will prefer to stay at home or will have enough young people to take care of them the robotics is going to play a role and as you know this already quite a few experiments here and there you see robots right for example in then mark every nursing home for the elderly has a robotic seal that is used as a pet to help dementia patients cope with with other problems like the robot is going to be huge the ritual reality is going to be incredibly important and then every kind of these little platform that people will be able to use not just to communicate with their friends or their family members who may be far away but also to work I mean the other thing that I would predict these that.

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Much higher proportion of people in their sixty's in the seventy's in the eighty's I'm going to keep on working at least at least a few hours a week and they can work remotely perhaps and why do I say that well because we're going to have you no need for their experience and their skills but more importantly because they're going to remain in good or actually excellent mental and physical shape for much longer than the people whom we you know called elderly right 30 or 40 or 50 years ago so in other words what I'm trying to say here is that I think these conceptions of we've been using these categories of old and young I think we need to stand up on the right because demographics is changing that but also think knowledge is changing.

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And so I would urge entrepreneurs you know graduates from your pick pockets in that market segment because it's going to be the single most important one if you come up with some pick Knology solution that helps them you know accomplish something. That believer's a better quality of life for them you're going to make you know a big splash you're going to be very successful that's so that's a very interesting very interesting insight.

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So another chapter of your book by the way you're doing a great job with the titles of the chapters. It's all about. Yeah I don't know you master the art you master the art of this keeping up with this thing and there while. There's this whole notion that.

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This is already here very much but is that the biggest share of middle class consumers. Will no longer be in Western Europe u.s. Japan but is going to be basically China and India right I mean that that's where the action is and so again back when if you start thinking about as an entrepreneur as much as we are right now China is normally referred to in geopolitical in a but it's a Russia with very worrying to do business.

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In China or we're going to miss the biggest opportunity of the century right in China and India and these other emerging markets are growing. Up Salut really so we used to have only one middle class in the world that mattered that was a European middle class the American middle class by now is a 4th generation middle class but most of the people who are middle class in the u.s. or Europe that if their parents and their grandparents were also middle class.

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But that middle class is a stagnant the one that is growing both numerically headcounts and also because of purchasing power is the middle class in emerging markets and by the way also in Africa from a very low level but the middle class is also growing in Africa but this is all about them instead of keeping up with the Joneses the famous saying the United States is keeping up with the middle class in India and China but 2 very important consequences here one is well but hands companies under her nurse up until now they've primarily had the American middle class consumer in mind that was the gold standard what is it that the American middle class consumer wants.

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Can we make it in the u.s. market and you know wait until you're 2030. After that I think most brands and most companies in the world are going to be thinking about the Asian consumer and by the way 2nd point I think is also important India will eventually be a much bigger middle class market than China and people don't believe me when I say this so the Chinese economy will be bigger but remember g.d.p. gross domestic product includes investment includes exports and also the domestic market so if you're talking about it a mistake market and the bulk of that is middle class well India has a younger population than China and when you compare at that the same level of that element the consumer markets of 2 countries were really makes a difference is the age of the consumer because the age of the consumer drives how many durable goods are British.

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And how many cars and homes are purchased that's that's where the difference lies right at the same level of the mill when you compare 2 countries though India has a much younger population than China China in fact has one of the oldest populations in the world let's not forget about that and getting old really quickly approaching Japan in fact though India is going to be by the year maybe 20372038.

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Bigger sake middle class consumer market than China but on top of that you have a c.m. So Indonesia Malaysia Thailand you have found by this answer Langat and then you have the Middle East and have Saharan Africa right just 10 seconds and why as you know this better than I do why are Chinese companies and Chinese government agencies investing so much money in Africa.

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Well the easy answer e.-s. oil natural resources minerals and so on and so forth but that's not even the beginning of it they're really their biggest strategy East we not suffer enough because going to be a big consumer market because we have a young population is growing right and the economies are growing so we want to position ourselves to be players in that the best the name that the middle class market in Africa that's not very interesting So back to our to the business of higher education right if you you put politics aside and social and I would say How do you how do we prepare ourselves to when in that economy I would say keep bringing talent from abroad who can then help you open up those markets right.

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And he's an Indian students they say and instrument business and number 2 s. next year American students or brought which right now is accurately by the way only about as you know less than 10 percent of American students study abroad we do much better at a Georgia tag but but we were just a ball if 2 percent so am I reading this right I mean would you would You are absolutely I mean so it is a huge opportunity there is a problem and I'm I'm going to point out what the problem as I see it is but the opportunities huge because look the middle class is expanding on a global basis right every year we have another 10120000000 additional people who are in the middle class and as you know one of the most important values of the middle class is education the middle committal class parents when their when their children who have to get the best possible education including you know university or college level education so that's a big opportunity for American universities as you said maybe we would have excess capacity because we won't have enough people from the u.s. right but track them right now what's the problem.

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I think simply put is the cost right is the cost because an American higher education coming. Afforded by very few people in the United States to begin with without financially let alone you know people from India or from the Middle East or from sub-Saharan Africa right so cost is going to be really important and that's where again technology comes in to maybe some you know innovation in terms of not just purely you know just using technology using online or using visual learning but some hybrid model may bring the cost down and such a way that then for example American universities can benefit from these enormous the man or higher education things going to come from the emerging middle class in whole of those markets around the world now remember they can satisfy that demand with their own universities and that's what they're doing they're expanding their universities but obviously United States I think we have an advantage which is the quality of the of the education that will be of the research behind it the beautiful campuses the facilities and all of that but I think we need to make it affordable for that meal class in those parts of the world that I think is the challenge.

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That's in it all right let's just do one of another one of your of your trends in your in your crystal ball. Which says finally women in emerging training their power their political power training their wealth. Exercising a much bigger influence in our in our society about a way you can you cite some numbers in the book that.

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That were actually got more depressing than I would have guessed in terms of C.E.O.'s in female C.E.O.'s currently in their companies in the us are less than 5 percent and the u.s. has better things in does better than the e.u. in your insight the fact that in France and Germany there were at least at the time of the writing there were 0 women C.E.O.'s of large companies and your predicted that's going to change dramatically and of course as if somehow the car would have it we elected our 1st vice president in its head of state since you published the book.

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How far do you think this trend will go over the next decade and what qualitative impact it will have in our society big big national big question let me just make an additional point too about coming to Harris not only She's the 1st woman for somebody's going to make and he's also the 1st daughter of immigrants that's right retired office which is again important right for the conversation that we were having earlier So here's the thing if you have the number of babies coming down it's not just because you know it happens it's not a random think it's mainly driven by the fact that now women in more and more parts of the world have better access to education right now and the mechanism they have this is really important is not that they decide not to have babies but rather that they postpone having their 1st baby because they stay in school then they go to college then they go to grad school then they want to get promoted at work and it is possible.

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And in the 1st baby that really drives the number down of babies in the end though at the end of the day we're having here in years women accessing education in much more even numbers and before and that in these type of economy that we have in the world eventually will result you know let's see what happens with discrimination with which to steal gender based commission which is still is a problem will result in more and more women being successful in their careers and also in the world of politics not just that in the world often of business and look something that I always like to cite right now as we speak in the United States according to the u.s. Bureau of the census in 39 percent of the households where there is a man and a woman married to each other in 39 percent of those households the woman makes more money than the men when you and I were growing up I can tell you that was not the situation the projection by the us Bureau of the census is that pay that year 2030 the same year it would be more than 50 percent in more than 50 percent of American households with a married man and woman the woman will make more money than me and what does that mean in how money is utilized and spent and how this is well that's a really important question and as you know there's a ton of research on that some of it conducted here in United States some of it up or out but we know from pension fund allocations we know from experiments we know from many different kinds of studies that women tend to be more risk averse when it comes to managing their money and by the way over the long run that tends to be like a good thing Ok so they're more they get better performance and returns over the long run so it will have an impact on savings on investing on financial markets in general one caveat though as women.

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Reach you know higher levels of success in their careers. They start behaving more like men and this as you very well know as an engineer is a very good very well documented phenomenon convergence to the mean great regression to the mean right to another where it's men and women are different primarily because in the past they were doing very different things in life not because of biology because you know one some of them where the men were working outside of the house so that women were forced to stay in the house but now the has changed and there's more women who have the same life experiences as men outside of the household though expect that there would be regression to the mean meaning that women will become less risk averse there was be some kind of convergence but for the kind being I think we can safely continue to assume that the impact of the fact that women are going to be making their own money they're going to be saving they're going to be accumulated wealth will have a large impact on financial markets and that's what wealth managers what the banks are tell me all the time that in having to change their strategies now that they have more women it's customers women with money right they make their own money.

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There's sort of a city where you live and you live in in Philadelphia. Which of course also has undergone a huge transformation in the makeup of its economy. And I mean in Atlanta which is right now undergoing a very interesting sort of I'm sure and aerial attack in a revival not no way no no coincidence that is happening right around air around around Texas though obviously I am I'm an optimist about the role of the role of cities and of course there's the whole concept around the creative class and in cities as congregate hers of challenge and all that positive side of cities and yet cities are also sometimes portrayed as the host of issues around pollution and transportation and private safety and.

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Then you throw Kobe in the next in there are these media reports that rolls and people are going to leave the cities and we're back to December live on top of a mountain and then connect with internet and all that do you think this is the end of the city or there's going to be a cure so yeah so this is a really important question I think and look every other trend that we have this got so far is getting intensified or accelerated by department right so that we can the number of babies population aging the rush of emerging markets all of those up but you're absolutely right I mean there's a question mark as to whether this pandemic will reverse the growth of cities and you know it's still too early to tell but what I read in you know from the experts and my own assessment is that I think that this may happen in Europe and in United States that some people will choose not to leave us close to the downtown area or even I'm going about rather move out because of social distancing because of the possibility of working remotely and so on and so forth are quite frankly if you look at South Asia the Middle East the town Africa which is where most of the growth in See this is taking place right now 90 percent of the growth is in those parts of the world then I don't think the growth of cities are going to really reversed over there because they see this is the such a big magnet but as you said there are 2 problems with cities one is you know equality they're going to generate a lot of inequality and the other one nice pollution and cities of course as I mention in the book contribute 80 percent of the carbon emissions in the world they occupy only one percent of the land they're home to about 55 percent of the population but the account because they're very energy intensive or 80 percent of the carbon emissions so unless we fix the cities unless we make them more efficient.

[00:39:39]
And more environmentally friendly it's going to be very difficult to reverse the problem of language change. Got it all right let's talk about this sharing economy. Which I think you introduced that chapter of looting to John Lennon Imagine no sessions right this this dream that we don't we don't have to own a car we don't have to own anything with you know the sharing economy so I thought I thought that you were going to that chapter was going to be arriving the sharing economy is going to change everything in my ways going to increase Sr is going to be good for Sustainability is a much better use of resources that it and all the sudden I found you're talking about the dark side of the sharing economy like over our failing our streets with with excess traffic employment quality dropping like our all these gig economy that owns it's creating a whole bunch of people were just just terrible jobs and in very few have very little in terms of social it's actions and the like so are you are you are you bullish about the sharing economy or do you think is going to be somehow adjusted in the next decade yeah I'm bullish but you see I think there is a danger when one thinks about technology and the impact they may have on the economy or on the society more generally.

[00:41:02]
It's call that they're not technological determinists meaning that given the technology whatever gets invented that then we already know what the consequences and really the consequences depend on how we use the technology but it's a political problem it's an economic problem it's a problem about making decisions as to how you want to use the technology and the scary economy all of these platforms and be used in a way that promotes For example the environment that helps protect species that helps.

[00:41:31]
You know at risk or slow down the problem of climate change and so on and so forth but of the same kind if misused he can also lead for example or more people not to use public transportation or rather to use. You know something kind of a holding service right like you mentioned one of them so I don't want to put the spotlight on just one company I mean there's many of them right but the problem the problem is once again how we use the technology by the certain economy is by the ways not a new idea I mean staring economies have existed for a long time right where people share resources in the villages and so on and so forth but these platforms enable us to do some things that without them it would be impossible right and I think in particular until they enable us to eat better consumers less wasteful right and therefore I think you don't count that can have a positive impact on the world and by the way you mentioned John Lennon and Imagine no possessions.

[00:42:32]
You know talking about intellectual property which of course is something that is very high up on my mind I have to pay several $1000.00 just to be able to use that those lines from his songs or not your questions have the title of course just or unjust the way it should be intellectual property like a patent or a song or you're a you're a single Get your if I'm not seeing it that's true but I was really.

[00:42:59]
Going to lecture probably is important especially in the knowledge economy right you know. Or it's also you know you had lots of questions for me in there so but I can I'll ask you one or and then my colleague Well well take some of the questions that are coming through through the chat that it's about.

[00:43:20]
This point. I was actually surprised how our Polish You are not just dead quiet about the technology on the line it coined this blog chain and because you know I've heard many many is sort of evangelists of how all the sudden central banks are going to disappear we're going to have this kind of shared a currency actually not just one but many many different different curses at some point fact someone gave me some good points and a few years later I realized it was worth like 10000 bucks or something I could use all that and now he would have been maybe 3 times as much as him.

[00:44:00]
But. Why I mean why should we pay I mean this is a low I mean I get the distributed ledger and they dollars us to keep records in a distributor way without a centralized but why is that such a game changer Yeah so let me clarify my thinking about this Ok because.

[00:44:21]
It's a very complex topic so 1st of all I don't think group the currencies such as to be coins will ever become something that we use on a daily basis. And the reason is very simple and you alluded to it and you actually know this very well given your experience in the Federal Reserve system so governments and central banks will never allow people currencies to prosper because they fear loosing control over their money supply over monetary policy so simple as that having said that I believe that there will be entrepreneurs out there who in the next few years are going to loan something different I call it a digital token and those digital tokens based on the block chain that's the underlying technology.

[00:45:09]
Will be a bundle of things though it will include coupons discount coupons that will include incentives for for example be more environmentally friendly it would include cryptocurrency but also include a way in which our seriousness can interact with the government a way which citizens can vote in elections so it will be a bundle of things this digital focus and keep the currency will be one element of that I think that is the future and it will happen.

[00:45:39]
But Fifa currencies by themselves acting will always be over regulated by the government or by central banks and by the way there are already countries in the world that have launched this digital tokens Estonia the Baltic republic in North Eastern Europe is perhaps the best example is a tiny country but they've managed to launch these actions and the same goes for Ghana and Kenya in sub-Saharan Africa both of them also have been experimenting with these 2 talks for the last few years to great effect so I think the future right around the corner I don't think is a future in which betokened will displace the u.s. dollar so if people have that in mind I don't think that will ever happen right because Bitcoin will never be allowed to do that.

[00:46:33]
Yeah there you go now no you're I think it was my fault I had put myself in years because there was actually my windows open to it for health reasons and there's a lot sometimes I don't so we'll keep our eyes open for the future applications of watch chain and I'll call you back in 2030 and we'll see production was was correct so there were several questions on that and I want to pick the ones that have more more life.

[00:47:03]
And one of them I like I like this one very much and what is How did you overcome skepticism a faculty towards online programs where not. Guilty and then let me actually let me answer that let me answer that which has just a question which has let's say this summer cold and disappears that's a fun experiment and only by more complicated let's say Well I get vaccinated we have over it under control.

[00:47:33]
September of 2021. Do universities look like they do you know or the fact that we're now learned to do things differently than China convinced right and that I think is the critical question I'm convinced about 2 things One is that I don't think universities are going to go back to where we were before the pandemic Number 2 is they should not go back and I think we should they decent opportunity to continue building on these being experienced I mean the last few months have been a huge experiment in terms of shifting away from face to face instruction to play for me the end of instruction and look I've been teaching and my students tell me that they actually like it so I predict that many of our students are going to say look we want face to face instruction for certain classes but other classes look give me some options I want some online options I'm going to be on campus but I want to have the flexibility of are doing that and by the way there's also another benefit you can bring in speakers you can bring him.

[00:48:33]
You know professors from many different parts of the world so I also put the thing actually that I think universities from different continents will collaborate to offer the risk to humans jointly taught online I think that's also going to happen to the benefit of the students and lastly I don't know whether this has happened at Georgia Tech but here at Wharton and append what I've noticed in my classes is that you can more students participating over assume or bluejeans rather than in the classroom and I think the reason seems to be that the introverts actually feel better about being.

[00:49:07]
Through the technology I suppose to the classroom the do you think back to the original question I think Assyria would want that as the question is do you think that that. Faculty. In general have gotten that that's because before before code was doesn't there's no way there is nothing as good as being in the classroom together and that relationship of I really want to so do you think change well be easier now that we've gone through this and well I think I'm seeing like 3 categories of faculty faculty who look for someone myself completely enthusiastic about his way embracing it then there are suffocating who before believe this is a betrayal on this is not what we should be doing but I do believe that there's also another group of faculty who are saying well listen the things that I would like to incorporate into my teaching there are certain things I think we should do at the end of the day Ok I think what we should do East offer different learning experiences for our students some of those are next means is we'll be in the classroom others will be in a semester abroad in some other country others will be online I think the point is look we have a diversity of students out there by the way not any longer by age I mean we're going to have students at every age not just in their twenty's like I merely So I think the more diverse offerings right that we you know make available to the students I think the better because then they were able to make this isn't just to the ways in which they learned more effectively now that's very interesting and given that we don't know whether new patterns will emerge with better of just just trying.

[00:50:46]
To the very just another question that got some likes is from Steve and it is about Africa and how often is often forgotten every time we talk of our global conspiracy theory you did not forget about Africa and you spend a lot of time in the book discussing why we should pay a lot of job for God But the question goes into what should be.

[00:51:07]
Do you know places like Georgia attacked like and what's really doing in you know Africa well what I always still companies when I make this present basis to them is look I mean maybe you're not ready for Africa yet but if I were you at least I would be paying attention to what's going on over there I would be establishing a listening post I would be experimenting with something in those markets I would travel to Africa every year at least once the federal learn about it because the person who was asking the question said we can no longer ignore Africa for better or worse Africa is going to change the global dynamic because it's gotten so big dip before I'm sorry after right after World War 2 Europe was bigger than Africans as a population right we could ignore Africa if something went awfully wrong in Africa like civil wars it wouldn't change the global balance but now it will unfortunately Africa will grow and the biggest challenge by the way I think is going to be educational between now and the year 203450 1000000 babies will be born in Africa that's a projection 450000000 we need to educate them they don't have the schools maybe we can deploy technology Ok but if we manage through our Africa manages to educate those 450000000 babies Africa is going to be a very different place.

[00:52:24]
Very different place. Another person might be a point you father said asked about lodge in America. What what are your what is your crystal ball say about Latin America over the next decade. Yes a lot America has I think certain peculiarities the middle class in America is also stagnant.

[00:52:46]
But it's not us over the other middle class in Europe and other states it's only up to take on the 3rd generation middle class I think in one America you know the biggest problem has always been the deficit in terms of education and interest of investment in human capital that has always been a problem in compare the situation to they will America to the situation in South Korea or in Taiwan and then go back before years path Korea and Taiwan where poorer than Latin America right now and even then the poorest countries in Latin America and within 3 generations primarily through investments in human capital now South Korean pay $13.00 times richer than the average Latin American country right so I think that's the 2nd think the 3rd it's I think a rather obvious e.-s. you know getting their political house in order I mean just you know America continues to be so volatile and this all sorts of things going on you know every week in some country so too much instability too much volatility and I think too little investment in human capital Unfortunately that you well we're approaching the end and I want to give you a chance to do.

[00:53:57]
Is share some final thoughts especially you know on the with only one condition which is you're only allowed to share some pasta and hopeful optimistic once a partnership as we have plenty of the other kind and I think so so so what excites you what excites you the most about the next decade.

[00:54:18]
Look what I think I find particularly exciting is that we can do something about it to turn all of these challenges into other theaters and if you remember the last chapter in the book sense of a clear message look the people who are going to the will in the near future other people who are able to connect the dots because there are so many things moving right Ok so what do I do right and this is what I would recommend everybody who is listening to do I try to force myself every day at night before I can all the light to read for 15 minutes something on my phone on a topic that I know very little about so we need to branch out when you can understand all of these interconnections and then the 2nd thing I would say e.-s. look the human instinct you're a psychologist as well as a an engineer I don't think you would relate to these are human instincts or human tendencies when we're confronting by so much change is to either Friesen don't make any decisions right or we go to the other extreme and we just completely over you know react and we reinvent ourselves from you know the inside out and I think we have to be disciplined us individuals and also I thought again I say she's right including universities companies etc right to look for the middle ground right make decisions but never make the systems that are irreversible this is for me the single most important message from the book right because you want to create options for yourself as you make the systems not run yourself into a corner right so you have to find that place not just as you as an individual but also your organization I mean I think that's a really really important.

[00:55:54]
Well that's a terrific place to end and I know I had promised that if we could keep it shorter that we better bring this is so fascinating that I failed but now I get it you know this was absolutely terrific thought provoking are I recommend the body if you haven't gotten your copy get it it's really an amazing 5 by really.

[00:56:19]
Thank you for spending this time with us and thank you so much for writing does entry for helping us think about what's coming had it's been an absolute pleasure and I can't wait to welcome you in person to have lunch on to Georgia Tech thank you my to thank you thank you so much and thank you for giving me the opportunity to engage in this conversation with the judge Your take community thank you for.