[00:00:05] >> OK. Well thank you very much for all of those tremendous presentation my pleasure to. Comment on that I wanted to put towards the general commentary and then really pose questions to you are the senators and the Commission on your questions. I know that your bill Castro probably shares are tweens and sentiments at this time of the rumors of his demise have been much exaggerated and I have to confess a certain discomfort level myself with all the panel long after Fidel here we are talking about the death of this person President Carter is a gentleman and he's also over. [00:00:48] To the island doesn't really care to discuss the question of whether he will pass with the old Asia at this time or any time but rather to think about what can be accomplished positively now. Work with what you have so perhaps we're thinking a little bit too much and we'll i just want to kind of put that out there mostly the people who spend their time concentrating on transitions issues you know out of the question What will we do after tapping USA ID for one which is funded a bunch of projects on that question and certain groups Cuban Americans in Miami we have to suppose that although they're not articulating that the Cubans in Cuba have also been pondering this question I'm wondering how that is that it's not rather than leading us to focus. [00:01:38] More on the development will not eat it but asking the question after Fidel will lead us to do what should have been done long ago which is to look more at Cuba and less ad you know it's hard to separate the two at much literature actually almost accidentally as you read it substitutes for it all for humor in its description as if it were nothing more but the fact that he had eight people to do it to delegate to. [00:02:05] Suggests that there is in fact more and we can work with but there is a. Cautionary remark broadly speaking watch out what you wish for there is a question of transition to watch that has never been fully answered and I think that we know that transitions generally in and Lot America have done better and even elsewhere in the world if they were gradual and from above that they were suffering and from a love and so if we were hoping for a gradual from above scenario indeed you know Castro. [00:02:40] Castro has pointed out may be the better person to lead that he has to charismatic authority to lead his country forward in a way that no one else does. I also might note that around the world there's been an awful lot of post communist style joke. Sort of arguments in a sense I've been playing on our side as well here or perhaps it's why and Cuba might end up missing you know to the extent that he represents the revolutionary she. [00:03:11] First of all we if we look at other countries be founded after communism they became less safe physically for human security for a huge group of people and much more say for those who would been subject to human rights violations so there is a trade off. There was more corruption or at least more evidence of corruption and dissatisfaction about corruption after many of the transitions in Eastern Europe. [00:03:38] A lot more economic insecurity and a certain amount of return to support for Qantas parties and you know it's countries because in a certain sense it was the devil you know. So in some ways it could be argued also that Hugo has been. A Not such. A bad neighbor for the United States and I'm sure reality. [00:04:04] Sense since the missile crisis that is to say there are certain things we don't see so much from Europe uncontrolled coastlines for the flow of drug trafficking comes to mind for example and indeed it would be interesting to contemplate what the flow of refugees might be were it not for the controls placed by that you government we know that people go in terrible blistering horrible circumstances trying to cross this space of ocean from Cuba to Florida very sad situation and at the same time we don't really know the counterfactual what would happen if in fact there were regular traffic and lots of boats and what would that be like what we do know is that when people land in the United States now I mean they can get their feet dry onto dry land they're going to have a special status how have traditionally had a special status and it looks very different in the future one can only suppose the relations were normalized those who did come would be honored if they were coming without proper documentation treated as illegal aliens in the sense that others are not so there are possible negative outcomes of a transition for both Cuba and the United States I think that I for one certainly think that one needs to run those risks in order to have some very valuable freedom and possibilities for growth in new directions but I want to confess to certain mixed feelings on two fronts as you know. [00:05:43] That those changes can be very difficult for people beyond doubt. And then I would also comment before turning to my right and your questions for people that the reaction to what else that when it comes will be I think tremendously important that there will be a range of feelings from. [00:06:04] Lee to greet. There will I think. Be a certain sense of an end of an era even if Raul is there. And there will be an attendant solemnity to that. Criticism of Bill Castro in that moment. Is likely only to underscore his revolutionary hero mode or role or legend if you will rather than the Stalinist dictatorship notion of him and present him as a kind of martyr. [00:06:44] And the US is likely to plunder right into too close or at least to some degree and at least some highly placed officials if it happens either this instruction and this will enable unique humans on the island many. For well they may want to be able to go between not necessarily want that to be a victory for the night. [00:07:07] The U.S. has been trapped by Hans curtain we're still trapped in the Bush administration has said that it will not be treating me differently from how he treats Pradelle they always have a bottom line to both brothers must go and we'll change. And. Really question whether. Rebel could in fact be the right person for us to deal with he's had to create this thrust upon him. [00:07:35] But I think at least we have to understand the transition has already begun. And that this is who is there and we must deal with that as well from a policy perspective so let me draw some questions out to all of you I'm a political scientist the President Francis and therefore perhaps have fewer questions for a one hundred or some of the others. [00:07:57] But I will. Know two things in your presentation the first one by that you mentioned about the distribution of. Lots of the reasons I said that those who were. To. Distribute the jobs were distributed to their relatives and so therefore they were more likely to resign after the last round procurements the implication of that is that. [00:08:23] These very influential dynamic positions where there is. Money to be made and so on are in the hands of white people and not in the hands of Africa humans so I ask you and would press the question of whether there actually has been racism in terms of who is who gets power within the Cuban government and if so what does that imply for this prospect for sustained government intervention in order to prevent racism that you say is only answer. [00:08:53] And then I would also add ask you to explore in you know with us like to hear one of the lyrics that I saw on rap music there. And I will continue the struggle. That discourse the struggle is the Cuban revolution discourse. Not. Traditionally anti-revolutionary discourse I wonder to what extent this is a capturing of the authentic spirit of the revolution or whether instead this is a generation to the language of the revolution as a way of supplying cheap without having a price for it. [00:09:35] It was a little bit on. The Mark Foley that I wondered if you could comment a little bit on what the source with him is he is going to be for future government there really there was a great discussion with him and see generally speaking in the transition to democracy. [00:09:54] Groups we talk about procedural legitimacy coming from having gone through the election. Is the process of the siege of that election that you. If the government didn't see it if it governs badly it still has that which you can see. On the other hand authoritarian governments have traditionally had to have performance legitimacy since they didn't go through any kind of an election procedure. [00:10:18] And so they've needed to do well deliver in terms of economic growth and distribution some degree. And then of course there was revolutionary which is something that has worked for a while for Daniel Ortega and certainly early on for the Castro and is a reason to put forward by revolutionaries for why they don't need to hold elections right away but I think that the revolutionary legitimacy has faded in the performance legitimacy and has been fading over the course of the ninety's as well and even into this century and so what does that mean it's not procedural just. [00:10:54] So perhaps you could explore that for us. And then under Also if you could comment a little more on the shot his relationship I mean my impression in a sense is that Chavez doesn't really need but what he needs is the symbol that if you look. At it in a certain sense I my question is can you manage to capture that symbol without really needed to have to close a relationship with Russia will. [00:11:18] You come to us from Miami and I wonder if you could comment a little bit further on who is the Cuban American community today the information I received is that it's actually part of what Ursula used to be with more diverse opinions about what the United States can do and that this could not talk policy implications for U.S. policy especially if there were registration drives because the very people who are less likely to be registered and less likely to vote are the ones who have the new and different opinions and often the ones who are poorer and want to be. [00:11:51] Sending more money not to you know it's a cap. And then I want you to go back to a question Bob This raised the question of whether Cuba really wants a better relationship with the United States use them if they wanted. Tomorrow. Maybe you could address the question of whether the United States really wants federal officials but. [00:12:13] Probably it's great to see you here for those who don't know I came to Atlanta because a pastor was directing the light in our interview program for senator and I work for him so it's a great chance to sit next to you on this panel and and I'm forced to ask a couple questions related to President Carter since you have been so close to him for so long I might add you were he consulted on his trip to Cuba which I went along for. [00:12:41] Perhaps you can provide what is it that President Carter would have been going to the second term and can it be done now or is there simply too much water in the bridge. And then. If you were to dress a little bit more about U.S. policy you tell us more since you would be. [00:13:04] Hard to Washington exactly where it is U.S. policy about Cuba he made these days I guess the military were making the policy but they said they don't see Cuba as a threat anymore. If the DA or maybe the policy Well there's quite a bit of cooperation actually you know in a sense from Cuba around that issue so many in Bolivia they're convinced that he has Mission Impossible you know is it differs from country to country in Latin America and I I wonder if you could speak to that. [00:13:38] Let me pretty you know the broader question of shock and can you comment on the remainder of Latin America the line American left and we can tick off you know. Nationally you're sure. That don't take what are their relationships likely to be like with Iran will regime if you will. [00:14:02] And what is it that they will watch for. There are relationships. And then if there is chaos and the transition goes not so smoothly. Will the United States act through the Organization of American States or simply by law. Is there anything to the Organization of American States can do. [00:14:27] I don't think health care is joining you probably all heard the song the song you know yes it's fun but the audience has changed rather a lot in the time period of forty seven years it used to be addressed by him or kind of organization but now it really has something going and doing a lot of. [00:14:43] Action and a sense around the hemisphere. And then I'll ask you a question. About whether you think. There's been a loss of U.S. moral leadership under this administration that prevents the United States from being effective in discussing the question of prisoners and human rights in Cuba particularly in light of one time what's going on there. [00:15:09] And then I'll close with something that. You no doubt predicted I've said this is important how people react when you know I'll ask What is it that the United States says at that time to try to prevent. Humans from simply elevating their view of what you know has been. [00:15:35] What is at the present harder should or could say. At that time you're someone who stands for human rights. And yet was visited. And was disapproved of the U.S. embargo and other elements of the policy and said so publicly in a foreign country and. So in that moment. [00:16:00] What is it that you are still directing what is now called the American program and you were offering that no doubt very short statement how would you. Thank you all very much.