Dr Lively joined Elton on
biofuels in two thousand and

eleven as a post doctoral research fellow.

And is currently a visiting researcher
at Georgia Tech his research is

focused on developing advanced ethanol
water separation techniques and

low cost C O two delivery methods.

He helped secure a four point four million
dollars deal you gram first the school of

chemical in biomolecular engineering here
in Georgia Tech the grant focuses on post

combustion C O two capture
using hollow fiber sorbent in

a technology Dr life we developed during
his doctoral work under Bill course.

Right right.

Thanks.
Willie you might talk up here.

I don't have a laser pointer so
I may just gesture with the mouse or

with my hand or see you have a laser.

OK so

the title of my talk today is low
energy intensity separations for

algae based biofuel production and
I think the majority of my talk

actually just focused on what
are biofuels What's the state of the art.

What are those biofuels.

So it's a bit of a primer for
people who are unfamiliar with

the concept of biofuels every
time you go to a gas station.

You see ethanol added almost always it
is from a bio fuel and there are a lot

of drivers for biofuels some one of which
I'm showing right here in the top right.

We have the expected growth and demand for

biofuels in all these colors here and
then we have the the subsidies which

are capped at about ten billion gallons
about a fuel per year and those are almost

entirely dominated by say illicit
biofuels which we'll talk about later.

So some of the major drivers
are that we need to essentially

keep increasing our energy portfolio.

We want to have higher
energy diversity and

we want to have energy generated at home.

Another major driver is
climate change biofuels

are especially useful because they've a
very low carbon footprint as part of most

biofuel processes they accept a lot
of C O two and so if you actually use

a biofuel process in conjunction with a
fossil fuel based plant you can almost get

to bang for your buck pretty
much that if this third one is

biofuels are usually pretty good for the
environment they have potential for lower

freshwater use than fossil fuels fossil
fuel plants or major water hogs which most

people don't realize and they're also much
cleaner than fossil fuels because you.

There's usually not the heavy metals
the sulfur dioxide the nitrate

in Alexa's that are associate
with fossil fuels.

There's a lot of issues for
biofuels before they can be

adopted across the nation right now
they compete with the food supply

which is a major issue we essentially
turn a food product into a fuel.

There's the land use and in the current
generation of biofuels are using arable

land they can generate useful
food to generate fuel.

There are very few water intensive right
now more so than they should be had for

the first generation and right now
the economics especially for the first

generation are not really all that viable
but the subsidies help carry them on.

So the first generation which is sort of
what I've been talking about all along is

everybody sort of sugar cane especially
from Brazil or corn in the U.S. And

essentially these processes
are not very efficient and

they've kind of lurched along through
Watch the government subsidies.

They compete with the food supply which
again is this whole food fuel debate.

They use arable land they use a lot
of water life cycle analysis on.

Corn based biofuel shows it
doesn't actually have that

much of an impact on greenhouse gas
emissions and like I said they're not very

cost imperative with fossil fuels
the second generation which

there is a lot of research on are using
cellulosic fuels such as switch grass.

Pine and other fast growing crops.

And typically these don't use arable land
they can they're not as competitive with

the food supply because usually people
don't eat switch grass or pine trees but

they still use a significant amount of
land and a significant amount of water.

The life cycle analysis on these
types of bio fuels generally have

a much more positive impact on total
greenhouse gas emissions but they're still

in development and the economics haven't
been proven like the first generation.

Finally what I'm talking about today is
the third generation or what's called

the advanced biofuels and if you
remember on the first slide the advanced

biofuels are what are expected to carry
the increased demand in the future.

So usually these are algae or micro out of
you processes they go to bio diesel and

or ethanol almost always or always they
don't compete with the food supply.

They don't use nearly as much land to
say sick or corn based ethanol and

it is definitely non arable land that
they use they don't have near as

much water use and then finally the full
life cycle analysis on these types of.

Biofuels are very very positive towards
greenhouse gas emissions are these

are still very much in development and the
economics are still waiting to be proven.

So I'll show you a bit how
the whole process works and

why separations which is what my
research is focus on is so important for

enabling a low cost biofuel product so

that our general we've developed
a special type of enhanced cyanobacteria

that was found in the deep undersea
smoker the undersea volcanoes and

these enhanced Santa bacteria as part of
their natural photosynthesis process.

Consume C O two and water and
actually secrete and

produce ethanol is not a fermentation
process the cells are not ground up and

crushed for
biodiesel they just secrete ethanol.

So what we do is we put the sign of
bacteria into a bra off inside of

a photo by a reactor and this photo by
reactors essentially a big Ziploc bag and

it's about eight feet wide and
fifty feet long and it's half filled

with a nutrient broth that we just grow
the algae in and once we grow them.

We let them stay there for
as long as they live and

what they would do is they'll continue
to secrete ethanol which will evaporate

into the head space due to vapor liquid
equilibrium the water in the brothel also

evaporate into the headspace and
what happens is at night as

air temperature cools down this
headspace will condense on the bag and

actually run down the troughs into this
little heat sealed trough we have here and

you can use a sump pump to just pull that.

Ethanol water mixture out
continuously throughout the night so

they generate an ordering the day.

We pull it out at night.

All right so what you can do is you
can pull this ethanol water out.

But the problem is is you have simply one
weight percent ethanol and ninety nine

percent water and you need to get it to
ninety nine point seven percent ethanol.

So this separation right here
is a very very large separation

in fact this separation system alone

consumes about thirty percent of
the core of value of the ethanol.

So that's you know point three megajoules
required from a good tool that you produce

these algae however are very
very productive and

we can produce ethanol at about six
thousand gallons per acre year.

If you reference that to corn.

It's about one hundred gallons
per acre year for corn.

So it's an order of magnitude
improvement and productivity over corn.

The else is to create a release oxygen
as part of the photosynthesis and

this requires occasional venting because
we don't want these bags to pressurize so.

We have to separate out
the oxygen capture the vapor and

then there is actually a lot
of vapor in this space.

We don't want to vent that.

So now we have an ethanol water vapor
separation which is similar to the liquid

separation and we can recover of it
all and send the water back down.

All right now finally these guys
they like C O two at higher

concentrations in the atmosphere you can't
just feed them four hundred ppm C O two.

They need much higher concentrations so
what we are looking at at our journal

is capturing C O two from point
sources like coal fired power

plants with natural gas systems refineries
cement plants etc And essentially

what happens in the system is you have
a power plant which takes in coal and

it combust and you get a food gas that is
about ten to fifteen percent C O two that

food gas comes out and what you can do is
attach a system at the end of the flue gas

treatment train that will capture the C O
two that C O two can then be sent

to the algae farm without any compression
and compared to the carbon capture and

sequestration strategy where you
have to compress the C O two.

This is a very big savings in
fact we don't have to stick it

underground we can use it.

So how do you actually capture C O two

from large point sources will
go into actually a bunch

of different methods I want to focus
on one of the ones that we're working.

So this right here is a representative
flu gas mixture it's mainly C O two

in nitrogen.

It's not a very high pressure
is just a little over a misfire

a pressure is not very hot and
there's not much C O two.

So for a chemical engineer there's not
really much driving force to work with in

order to do the separation the other
problem is that there is a ton of it.

There is a million standard cubic feet per
minute going up the stack at a power plant

so plant Achan send if you go down.

Marietta.

It's about this a million standard cubic
feet per minute which is ninety tons of

gas per minute and

to put that in to you know something
most people understand the mass of it's.

Seventy Honda Civics per minute just
flying up the stack it is a ton of gas.

All right so this is a very very
difficult separation to handle and

we want to do is we want peers
C O two in pure nitrogen and

broadly speaking there are two
routes that we can get there.

To arrive at this product can have
physical separations or chemical

separations and ideally both methods
should create a pure C O two product OK.

The most common one is chemical
absorption if you ever drive

through Louisiana Texas and
you see all these big tall towers.

That's what is happening here.

Essentially you have a solvent that has
a chemical affinity for C O two and

will react with the C O two and grab it.

There is adds origin which is mainly
what we talk about here as sources where

you have a solid and where the surface of
the solid has an affinity for C O two.

But not nitrogen right.

Physical separations are like membranes
you can essentially force this mixture

through plastic and since C O two is
smaller than nitrogen you actually

go through the plastic faster and you get
a pure C O two product on the downstream.

You can have cryogenic methods where
you centrally freeze the C O two.

But not the nitrogen and then finally
adsorption he's kind of a tricky one.

He can sit on both sides of the fence.

OK.

In this area of research C O two capture
from Mars point source is very active

There's lots of competition everybody's
got their own horse in the race.

It's a lot of fun.

So what I work on are how fiber Sorkin's
for post combustion C O two capture and

what the way these work is we
can make a fiber just like a Y.

almost looks like a hair a really
long fire that's hollow and

inside this fiber you have a very
poorest support which is just

like a polymer polymer uses the same
power made for cigarette filters so

it's very porous and we can put these
little tiny particles in here and

these particles have a special affinity
for C O two overnight you're right and

then this this fine piece
of hair is actually hollow.

Now we can go in and put a dense
layer on the inside of that fiber and

what happens is we can put these fibers
in the way of the food gas such that

as the flue gas goes over the fiber the
C O two will find these little guys and

go into the yellow crystals.

But nitrogen will.

Meanwhile we can run water through the
bores of the fiber through the inside of

the fiber to keep them cool.

OK.

And then once we're ready to
collect our pure C O two products.

That is when the fiber is full of C O two.

We now start pumping hot water through and

once you heat the whole thing up
the affinity that the C O two has for

the crystals goes away and so
you collect a pure C O two product.

All right.

So here I'm showing in the a micro
graph of this layer right here.

And so Rick here there's some of
the crystals there is the poorest polymer

support and this layer right here is
actually Saran Wrap it's just P.V.C.

It's not like you buy the store but
it's the same exact thing.

All right.
And then here

is a picture of the poorest polymer matrix
you can see this kind of gossamer web.

And so this is very porous a gas
can get through here no problem and

then these little guys these
are what actually grab the C O two.

And the way they grab the C O two is
some kind of basic I mean chemistry is

you have in a mean and
I mean as a very basic.

Entity and you have C O two which is

an acidic gas and these two will react and
you get it by carbonate and so by doing

the solid support it means we can combine
the advantages of the traditional liquid

means that you see when you drive through
Louisiana and Texas and all that but now

we don't have a ton of water supporting
these which is how they normally do it.

And so
you can assemble these guys into modules.

And what's really nice about the model
designs you can scale it to fit whatever

size point you want or
however much C O two you want and

this is been proven in
the past with reverse osmosis.

This is a really really large rivers.

Most is plan Saudi Arabia and you can
just see the rows and rows and rows and

rows of modules so
these fibers can be easily modularized and

easily scaled to fit whatever
system you're trying to design.

So finally what's the what's the outlook.

You can see here is this is our energy
portfolio up until two thousand and

forty and oil and coal and
nuclear natural gas.

They're really not going
anywhere anytime soon but

liquid biofuels are going
to start making more and

more of a contribution in order to meet
that contribution will need advanced

biofuels simultaneously since
these guys aren't going anywhere.

We're expecting a global surface
warming unless we do something so

the red line is if we don't do anything.

The world will heat by on average four to
five degrees C. if we can do something.

We might be able to make it stay
under one to two degrees C.

So to provide a look at biofuels you
can have a solution like Al Gentles.

And here's the photo by reactors that I
showed just laid out down in Florida.

And to stabilize C O two emissions
what I'm showing here are the global

C O two emissions and
this is a business as usual case and

if you can have more energy efficient
transportation and put in hybrid electrics

more efficient separations you can take
a big chunk out of the C O two emissions.

If you increase capacity and
wind solar nuclear you can remove even

more emissions and filing carbon capture
and sequestration can remove the rest.

And that's all I have and
I'd be happy to take any questions.

All

right.

That

other is and
usually it's called the parasitic load.

So when you're trying to capture.

C O two from a power plant.

You're not doing
the Power Point really any good.

You actually read using it's energy so
all the various C O two capture

technologies have their parasitic load
that's like their metric of choice.

The typical ones that you know are the
traditional installed systems are thirty

to forty percent parasitic
which means thirty percent

of the energy the power plant generates
is used to run that system and so

that's almost a nonstarter
you just couldn't do that.

That's thirty percent more
coal you have to mine

the fire assortments our analysis and
a third party engineering

firms analysis shows it's about
fifteen percent parasitic So

it's about half that the thermodynamic
limit is about eight to nine percent.

So if you just had some
magical molecular tweezers

that could pick C O two out it would
be nine to ten percent based on thermo

Right

right.
Yeah Right now it's just a portion because

we haven't scaled up a plant to match the
amount of C O two coming out essentially

one plant produces nine
tons of C O two per minute.

And so to have a algae farm bill to
use nine tons of C O two really big

right now we're thinking of just you know
only a portion of it but in the future.

You can imagine how do you farms
especially out in the desert taking nine

tons of C O two per minute.

But right now it's just a small fortune it

thanks.

The ride school closes
down our next speaker

is Mark Simpson and
Mark has been a Ph D. student

in the Woodrow school of mechanical
engineering since two thousand and

eight working with Dr Eric Glaser His
research focuses on the characterization

of buoyancy induced atmospheric vortices
specifically with the scaling and

application of such war to seize for
the use of power generation.

He graduated in two thousand and
eight from Penn State University with

a bachelor's degree and
you're an author or aerospace engineer.

Mark thank you

as you mentioned my name is Mark and
I'll be talking about the solar vortex

which is my Ph D. research and
what it is is a novel and

scalable method to produce electric
power using points induced for disease.

Now I've done this work along with my boss
a Dr Ari Glaser a mechanical engineer so

the sun heats the ground at about five
hundred to one thousand watts per meter

squared during the day and

in turn creates this large reservoir
of thermal energy near the surface.

If an instability is introduced into
this highly stratified air induced for

text conform and in nature.

These are often for two dust devils and

the video in the upper right hand corner
showing a natural occurring dust devil.

So dust devils can be between one and
fifty meters in diameter and measure up

to a kilometer in height but they contain
significant amounts of kinetic energy.

So the goal of the solar vortex is to not
use the naturally trying dust devil but

to deliberately trigger points for
attacks and

to couple that with a turbine to extract
the mechanical energy that's in the flow.

So how do we create the deliberately
trigger points in use for

tax we take a centrally
located hot spot that's

being only heated by solar radiation and
we surround it with really placed.

Tangential flow veins.

So if that hot spot
heats the air above it.

It's forced to rise to point C.
An air must be in train through the veins

to replace it as that's air isn't
trained angular momentum is

imparted upon it forcing the air
to spin forming the vortex.

Once we have the vortex it's maintained
as long as the source of points

is available and what that means
is as long as there's a positive

temperature difference between
the earth's surface and the air above.

Once we have the vortex we directly couple
it with a vertical axis turbine and

we extract both angular and axial momentum
from the flow to produce electric power.

So the solar vortex targets a largely
untapped renewable resource

which is this low grade thermal waste heat
that's present in desert environments and

since nearly one third of Earth's global
landmass is covered by desert this

provides a huge potential region for
application of the solar vortex.

In addition to the desert applications
of solar vortex can also be used for

such things as taking advantage of
the waste heat off of power plants or

placed on top of large flat roofed
warehouse buildings to take advantage of

the large incident radiation on top of
these buildings as I mentioned earlier

the tax is maintained as long as
the source of poignancy is present and

what that means is a huge advantage
compared to traditional solar renewable

energy technologies in that it continues
to produce power even on cloudy days or

well after the sun goes down because all
it requires is a positive temperature

difference between the Earth and

the air above it which is given to us
through a large thermal mass of the earth.

So to get understanding of how much power
a single solar vortex facility can produce

it's instructive to look at a naturally
occurring vortex and some measurements

of these naturally current vortices in the
seventy's show that the typical vortex is

about five meters in diameter and has
axial in ten gentle wind speeds of about

ten meters a second if we were to couple
that to a ten meter diameter turbine.

This gives us something on the order of
about sixty three kilowatts a mechanical

energy and that's after we applied that's
limit to wind turbines this number is

about forty four percent larger than
you would see for the same size to.

And with just axial velocity and

that additional energy as a result of the
rotational momentum present in the flow.

It's also important to note that this
power actually scales with the diameter to

the fourth meaning if we just doubled the
size of the vortex we get something like

sixteen times the amount of power so

the solar vortex could be placed on a grid
or in a sort of a solar vortex farm and

some and some of our analysis shows that
you could place these every fifty meters

without depleting the available
thermal resources and

this number is probably actually pretty
large and it's meant to be conservative.

So we could take ten meter
diameter facilities and

put three hundred twenty of
them on a square kilometer and

we get something on the order of about
sixteen megawatts worth of power

which is substantially higher than what
conventional wind turbines can do and

is on the order of what photovoltaic cells
can do but the advantage it has over these

photovoltaic cells is that it
acts like a solar collector and

what I mean by that is as the vortex spins
it in trains air along the surface and

as that Aronsen trained it absorbs
thermal energy from the surface.

So our structure is actually
quite small compared to

the area from which it's
drawing this energy.

So if we take a fifty kilowatt cortex.

It would cover about a tenth
of the area that the necessary

photovoltaic cells would need to cover
to produce the same amount of power.

So before I go on to some of the research
I've done just to compared to what's

available now compared to wind turbine
they're actually quite small and

that's because the solar vortex takes
advantage of the thin thermal region near

the earth's surface where temperature
gradients are the largest

which means that it would be relatively
cheap and simple to ship and install and

once installed maintenance costs would be
minimal as the generators near the surface

allowing easy access to do any sort
of maintenance that needs to be done.

Compared to traditional solar collectors
of photovoltaic cells is quite simple

both electronically mechanically which
once again makes it very cheap and

United Technologies estimate
of the cost of this type of

facility was half the price of the state
of the art photovoltaic cells.

And.
Addition to that as I mentioned earlier we

don't need to tile large areas which
also reduces the cost of installation.

So some of the work I've been doing
in the laboratory in order to sort of

scale the power in the size of these for
Texas is to create a laboratory vortex.

And we do that by having
a meter squared aluminum plate

with a controllable heater on the
underside to simulate ground heating and

we put a float means on top
of the plate at an angle.

We match the surface the flux into
the air to be similar to what

you would see in the desert.

So we get about three hundred to four
hundred watts per meter squared in

the bottom right hand corner we have
a temperature profile with the center line

of the vortex at our equals zero we see
the hottest temperatures are located

within the vortex core and a long thin
thermal region near the surface and

that's where the air is being in training
and it's collecting this thermal energy as

it moves towards the vortex center in
the bottom left hand corner we compare our

temperature profile with what you see in
nature with reasonably good agreement

in order to match the scaling of
what we get in the laboratory and

what we see outdoors the next thing
we do is we measure velocity.

So that we can get an idea of what sort
of kinetic energy we can expect and

we do that using a method called
particle image Flossy material and

what that is is we filled
the area full smoke particles and

we fired two lasers and taken images take
two images that some known time apart and

we correlate the two images to see how far
the particles of move this structure in

the upper right left hand corner gives us
a three D. realization using sixteen of

these points and we've added streamlined
so we can see how the flow looks and

you can see the flows for the cooling we
have about a one to one ratio between

axial tangential velocity the other
thing we discovered with P.

I.V. is the presence of something called
downdraft which is actually quite common

in atmosphere for
disease because that's the fluid spins you

the low pressure center as you
see in tornadoes and hurricanes.

You actually get suction of air down
through the center of the vortex and

you get this reverse axial flow which is
bad for us because it cools the air and

reduces the effect of buoyancy.

But at the same time it spreads
the vortex actually giving it more

torque than a necessary.

Then it would have had otherwise.

So these two effects possibly
cancel each other out and

the last thing we didn't lab was to
compare how or to show how the vortex

formation is affected by
the presence of the turbine and

the first thing we did was
Major the circulation and

influence can exceed circulation is
the strength of rotation of the vortex.

And we see that the strength of the vortex
is unaffected by the presence of

the turbine which is good for us.

Meaning that the vortex forms regardless
of whether the turbine is there or

not we also measure the temperature
profiles and we see

that the temperatures near the bottom of
the plate are pretty much the same but we

have some cooler temperatures aloft when
the temp when the turbine is there and

that's because the turbine is inducing
mixing cooling the overall air temperature

down a little bit in the bottom
right hand corner we have the R.P.M.

of the turbine versus the blade
angle of the turbine blades and

as a turbine we use the simple paddle
wheel turbine with six blades and

the first we put them in ninety
degrees which means they're parallel

to the axial flow at that point we see
that this turbine spins at the same R.P.M.

as the vortex or the dust devil that we
have and that's telling us that we're

capturing all of the rotational momentum
as we decrease that angle of attack.

We actually get an increase in R.P.M.
as we begin to capture more and

more of this axial momentum showing
that we're capturing both angular and

actual momentum and
increasing the total power output.

So here's a video of our
four techs in the lab that

we're seeding with some smoke from
a small canister located on the plate.

So it's directly.

So it's directly in trained into
the vortex core and our vortex is about

twenty centimeters in diameter and
our turbines about a half meter.

We can spin our turbine about
twenty to twenty two R.P.M.

which matches the surface heat flux
that you would see in the desert.

And we see as the smoke goes
away that the turbine continues

to spin that's because
the vortex doesn't go anywhere.

It's just our ability to visualize it and

then the last thing we did was to
do an outdoor test of the facility.

So we built a meter scale facility
out of plywood with a sin.

We located steel plate painted black to
aid in the absorption of solar radiation

and we match the temperature profile
between what we have in the lab and what

we have outside and we're able to achieve
hot spot temperatures of up to sixty

degree Celsius just using the sun but the
most important thing we are able to do is

not only form a vortex but to sustain the
spinning of the turbine in the absence and

presence of across them so this video
shows our outdoor turbine spinning and

we've added a pin wheel to the structure
to show whether there's any envy and

when we see in the absence of wind or
turbine spins at about eleven R.P.M. and

this is only due to the buoyant
force of the air rising from below

spinning the turbine as our pin
will begin to spin up a little bit.

You see there a turbine actually
spins a little faster and this

is a result of the ambient kinetic energy
in the wind being spun by our veins and

adding to the strength of the vortex
which is a key element of the solar

vortex facility in that it captures both
solar radiation through the inducing of

the buoyant into four text that collects
thermal energy over a wide range of areas

but it also is able to capture any kinetic
energy available in the wind field and

these two modes of newborn or G.
act constructively within the facility.

So with that.

Thank you.

Through attention and
I'll be happy to answer any questions.

Yes

the wind actually as it enters

of silica it could spawn with the veins
in the same sense that the vortex is so

it acts to spin the turbine if the wind
strong enough it can actually destroy

the vortex that's there but it doesn't
matter because the termite to spin and

as the wind dissipates
the point he takes back over.

So you get a continuous spinning of the
turbine which sort of guilty in the air

in the laboratory we found in order to
spin our turbine about eight degrees.

Between where the turbine is in the ground
which in the latter is about eighteen

inches outdoors and needs to be a little
warmer because you get some mixing due to

the wind blowing you in your
transition to commercial

product what next steps do you
think you need to develop to fit

the scale of our next step is to build a
larger prototype that's that's really all

the all we need to do right now to prove
to anybody who's willing to invest in

the meter scales not quite large enough
to get some it's so close to the ground

that you're really in this thermal layer
that doesn't exist for a larger scale one.

But yeah so the next step of
the to be to build a larger one.

You know this size and
probably are three meters in diameter.

Because as I said the power
scales light to the fourth.

So we were able to triple it then
that would give us an usable power

structure never would need to
be taller than about two meters.

Ideally the one that we would build
is ten meters in diameter and

at that point would only
be two meters tall.

So something on the order of three meters
in diameter we would build much shorter

and that's to first of all
doesn't need to be that tall and

secondly we try to inhibit the shading

as the sun is not at the perfect
angle to be in the end of the day

some.

In our last speaker is Marilyn Brown
a professor of public policy.

Marilyn Brown joined
Georgia Tech in two thousand and

six after a distinguished
career at the U.S.

Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National
Laboratory at Oakridge she had several

She led several nationals scenario
studies of climate change technology and

policy options and held various
leadership positions her current research

addresses the development deployment of
sustainable energy technologies in design

the design a policy options to
reduce carbon dioxide emissions

in the evaluation of energy programs and
policies.

She's authored more than two
hundred publications including

a recently published book
energy in the American society

in American society thirteen minutes.

It's actually really good.

I read that among her honors she was
a CO reception of the two thousand and

seven Nobel Peace Prize and she currently
serves as the co-chair of the energy and

sustainable sustainability strategic
planning committee for Georgia.

You know.

I get this and this one there.

I don't

have very many slides but
I did want to first say thanks a lot for

the kind of thing descriptions that get me
so excited about the potential for being

able to address our energy and climate
challenges more effectively in the future.

I am not a technologist but
I have to keep up with

technology development start to understand
their likely and potential contributions.

Rather than the valley.

Waiting rather then examining technologies
in the laboratory I examine policies.

And do economic forecasts using modeling
tools that we have in our laboratory

which is called the climate energy policy
lab over in the School of Public Policy.

So I'm going to start with a couple of
graphics that are at the global scale.

Just to set a sort of stage for

our work which does actually tend to
be at the National and the state.

Scale as the world energy
outlook which was published just

a few months ago indicated it would
appear that the world is facing a five

year window of opportunity to keep the
global climate increase to a two degree C.

level they have this crisp way of simply
saying the trouble we're in the doors

closing will be closed in five years and
if we don't manage to address the.

Climate challenge quickly and
aggressively in the short term

will be facing what might be
say the next best forecast for

the climate which they
call the new policy thin

area which would result in a point five
degree C. rise by the end of the century.

So we can still void.

The more catastrophic
forecast of six degrees if we

do nothing by adding and
implementing policies

that are low car carbon and
that address climate change in the.

Over the next twenty five years or so.

I was at the Policy Forum and

spoke on Monday and I'm actually showing
you the same slides that I use there.

The morning session was
focused on transportation and.

Liquid fuels and the challenges we face.

Ryan you would your work would
have fit very nicely into that and

some of the speakers talked
about how we're going from

two billion cars in the world one billion
cars in the world to two billion cars

over the next century how
are we going to fuel them.

Similarly I spent more time on
the electric sector issues and

wanted to highlight with
this map that we have now

about one point five billion people
without access to electricity and

what are we going to do when they all have
sufficient affluence to be able to afford

electric power of their own
to have a similar problem or

perhaps even call that
opportunity on the electric side.

You know our talent in general
is to find a way to fuel

industrialized economies to be able to
maintain our growth but also to help pull

developing countries out of poverty
without overheating the climate.

So how to do that is sort of the mega
sized challenge that we face.

I do argue in my book published
just last November called climate

change global energy and
global energy security that you could

argue that we already have sufficient
technologies to meet these challenges.

I do think better technologies
will make it easier but

in fact we do have a deep
reservoir of alternative

technologies that we could use and
we don't in large part because of

various non technical obstacles and
policy barriers that

prevent these alternative technologies
from coming into the marketplace.

My favorite alternative technology and

the category is energy efficiency and
this diagram.

Use a role that energy.

Fish and sea has played in
meeting the US energy resource

requirements over the past thirty years
have you ever seen a chart like this.

Except maybe Ryan has and
because he took my class years ago but

in when you see statistical
descriptions like the couple you saw

in Ryan's presentation about
the Energy Information Administration.

Way of categorizing how we use energy and
what we're going to see in the future.

They tend to layer all of the supply
side options so you go from

coal to natural gas to nuclear
petroleum and renewables.

You never see efficiency.

It's not overly There is
though it's not a resource but

in actuality it has been the largest
energy resource in the United States.

If we were to be using energy

as inefficiently today as we were
before the Arab oil embargo in one nine

hundred seventy we would be consuming
two hundred quads of energy.

We're only consuming one hundred
quads because of the degree to which

we've been able to reduce the energy
intensity of our economy.

Now we are also off shoring a lot
of our production see there have to

account for that.

In fact I saw in this paper
the other day just a day or

two ago that the U.K. has concluded
that in its future energy goal

needs to a help for the energy embodied
in imported goods and services.

So this is also something that we
cannot forget that we're buying so

much more from as imports that we need
we're not officially saving energy or

actually buying it and probably using
more because typically these goods and

services produced by other countries are
produced less efficiently than we would.

OK So we have a large reservoir
of this energy efficiency and

by the way I mean taking cold showers and
drinking warm beer.

This is not about sacrifice it's about
being able to achieve the same standard of

living that we have now by
using energy more wisely.

We have available energy lighting and
I think that is and

you think look when the lights are on
to be sure we have fluorescent lighting

all of which is the generation
that has succeeded.

Incandescent lighting We've
got electric vehicles that can

replace gas guzzlers we
have code generation and

at industrial facilities where you can use
the waste heat from chemical processes and

from bio refineries to produce
generation on site and

by having it distributed
throughout your service territory

you also reduce line losses from
transmission and distribution.

So.

And heat pump water heaters other
favorite new technology is now available

on the market for
about the last year and a half.

Home Depot and

Lowes have their two competing heat pump
water heaters that was a product in part

of the National Laboratory where
I worked for twenty years.

So lots of technologies are out there.

Why are they not penetrating.

You know in the United States we have
millions of people commuting to work in

large S.U.V.s alone returning to spacious
homes where they have more televisions

than people that are on all the time in
order that they can have an instantaneous

on which costs thirty
watts per television for

that standby bucks to operate.

Well one of the reasons is because we have
a set of policies that actually promote

consumption and you can and you can
enumerate and there are many of them.

There's one.

My particular gripe in the electric
industry where the regulators

provide profits to electric utilities
are proportionate to their sales.

So why would Georgia Power or anyone else.

Spend their resources to convince you to
use more efficient electric technologies

that would simply reduce their
shareholders profits and

they have an obligation
to their shareholders.

So we have a regulatory reward for
consumption you have the same in

transportation where the federal
government collects gasoline revenues and

returns it to states based on vehicle
miles travels are estimated in that state.

So they're rewarding.

Each state for.

The more vehicle miles that are traveled

these are sorts of things that we
study and we try to conclude what

might happen if we were able
to eliminate these policies.

Many of the policies that we've
studied in the past have focused on

what I call the barons of industry.

The oil Titans or the big.

The big industrialists But increasingly
we're learning that we need to focus on

consumers because we are more and
more a consumer driven society.

It's all about what we choose with our
own two feet in shopping malls and

car dealerships as well as voting booth.

We can do a lot but today.

We do not have the right kinds of signals
to promote good consumer behavior.

Now and our climate and energy policy we

use the best in class modeling tools
we have the National Energy modeling

system which is used by the Energy
Information Administration when Congress.

Asks the Department of Energy.

What will it cost to put a regulation
on to increase the CAFE standards for

cars or to put a cap and trade for
carbon What would it cost.

What how much.
And what would change.

How would the energy economy respond.

It turns out that there are only
two universities in the US Duke and

Georgia Tech that can use
the same model that uses So

when turned to until that time when
we were able to replicate Nim's here.

It would turn the crank and
produce an answer and

policymakers simply had to accept it but
now we can go into

the code and
we can question parameters we can look at

alternative energy price scenarios or
resource or

technology options available in the future
we can accelerate or we can leg

any of those we can turn off technologies
we can turn off new coal plants.

So it's a wonderful tool and

with that tool we were asked by
a couple of foundations if we

would look at what the potential for
clean energy is in the south.

So we started with an assessment of energy
efficiency and we turned to renewable

energy and have had a couple of good
publications come out on that but

the bottom line is that there's a vast
opportunity for clean energy in the south

and you start with energy efficiency you
can begin to see why I say that they south

in our definition which includes seventeen
states and the District of Columbia.

It's a big south.

Includes Texas.

We contain thirty six percent of the U.S.

population but consume forty four
percent of the energy in the nation.

So right there you can
see that we use energy.

More intensely and
that's partly because we have affordable

energy our energy is cheaper in the south
which of course does not promote.

Efficiency.

We also have a much lower levels of
renewable penetration in the south and

yet at the same time we
do have energy resources.

So the South has a rich terrain for
turn to energy improvements

and what we modeled in our analysis
of the self was what could happen

if we were to promote energy efficiency in
ways that other regions of the country.

Have you could see that our analysis
suggests that there's no reason why

the energy consumption in
the renewable commercial and

industrial sectors in the self's
is no reason it shouldn't crease

we should be able to simply
work on doing a better job with

cleaner fuels to meet
the demand that remains flat.

And my last slide talks about the green
jobs benefit to alternative energy.

We're spending a lot of time now on this
question of what would a wholesale mega

investment nationwide in
alternative energy do for jobs.

We've looked in depth at the industrial
sector in particular and

found tremendous multipliers
can be achieved and

this shows you by looking
at the coefficients for

jobs due to investments
in different industries.

If you focus on the high labor
intensive industries and

less on the in the lean
labor in industries.

You can generate jobs.

If you look at efficiency energy
efficiency investments tend to involve

construction and equipment you need
more motors to make those energy

efficient motors new construction for
insulation and for.

Better better structures.

You have a lot of O. and M.
and you have in addition energy savings.

So now you have households and
businesses and

manufacturers that don't need to spend
as much on their energy bill and so

they recycle the revenues they
saved into the purchase of other

types of goods and that's the multiplier
that is associated with other goods.

So when they have savings
they go into that category of

sort of the residual what you
might buy with energy savings and

that has a seventeen to one million dollar

investment ratio just much
bigger than the five to six

jobs per million investment that you
get in the generation of electricity or

the production of natural gas or
coal and petroleum.

So we spent some time trying
to provide a very rigorous

overlay using input output modeling and

Nims you have to course consider
the fact that with energy efficiency.

You are going to eliminate
jobs in the power sector and

you're going to eliminate
oil exploration or

other resource intensive jobs push and

consuming the resources the same time so
that is a little overview of some of

the things that we need to in the School
of Public Policy for energy and climate.

Thank you.

Yes it is accurate.

Every state in the union disallows
individuals who are not labels or

companies that are not labeled
power providers electric service

companies to run a electric
line across the street.

Now you think well that's OK we give
that right to the utilities but what

if you are a steel mill has a lot of waste
heat and there's a user of the electricity

that you could generate from that waste
heat that's right across the road.

So in order to access that other
user you would have to wheel

your pay back to the utility and that
would require a lot of negotiation and

use their wires in order to get next
door because there's a road in between.

So that's an example there are a lot lots
of other examples where we're really

not working well in Japan Denmark and

Germany distributed power from waste heat
is surging and we are just venting ours.

It is very wasteful.

I'm working with a couple of
organizations to try to fix that.

Thank god question.

I guess it would have to conclude it's

everybody's guilty all
levels of government.

But we're seeing now in a number
of studies that the South.

This is two national studies one
by Epperly and one by McKinsey

has have both agreed
that the potential for

energy efficiency improvements
is the greatest in the south and

I believe that's the case because we
have spent so little in programs and

in both at the state and local level
as well as utility programs California

has been at it for a long time we've great
assertiveness so as to which sector.

It's all of them can
offer something I think

the transportation sector is the most
difficult one to grapple with

in terms of energy efficiency now we do
have you know great forty four point five

miles per gallon by twenty
twenty five new standards for

vehicles that have as of put in place so
through regulation.

We're going to help fix that problem
all the trucks are still extremely

inefficient.

It's hard to manipulate
the transportation sector so

I always put that aside regulation
is is a good tool there but

within the other a lot of great coaching
aeration in combining in power in

industry is one of my favorites I always
like to mention in the residential and

commercial areas integrated
heat pumps I see as.

Offered heat pumps and
heat pumping technology in general

is the most efficient way to
space heat a structure and so

to me that's that's one to look to and
lighting with

the breakthroughs in solid state L.E.D.
lighting that's going to do a lot.

Not sure where future breakthroughs
will take us a bit of open

issue there welts lots of wildcards but we
can't of course forget the fact that we're

now up against a price of
natural gas that is all time low

two dollars per million B.T.U.
So just the solar vortex

Elton all all my favorite technologies
there are now up against a new

very competitive set of
fossil fuel alternatives.

You know the standards were passed
in the last administration and

they were set to be enacted between two
thousand and twelve and twenty fourteen.

That's a standard it doesn't take
technology winners it's that it sets

a standard which is in
terms of lumens per watt So

it's called a fish

fish it's I think lumen efficacy or
something like that anyway.

Lumens per watt so
under right now there are no incandescent.

Lips that meet that low
the low new low standard only

there are no incandescents that meet only
fluorescence in and sell us a set a way

of putting in place a goal
setting a standard but

allowing multiple solutions to meet that
standard as I think a very good policy

approach to essentially getting rid of
incandescence but it'll take time because.

I know people who have bought boxes
of them and want to be able to.

Continue using them using them for
the rest of their lives.

So you have to work
against that stock issue.

Well thank you very much.