Essays on the Economics of Climate Shocks, Food Security, and Sustainable Agriculture
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Spyrou, Ioanna Maria
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Abstract
This dissertation studies climate change and its impact on sustainable development in Africa. My first essay is on the impact on droughts on children’s educational outcomes and health outcomes. I compile a panel dataset on Ethiopian children and monthly precipitation data to find that droughts decrease children’s likelihood of being enrolled in school and negatively affect grade completion. Results also show that droughts increase stunting and
thinness among children and increase household food insecurity. My second essay analyzes factors that help determine when farmers in Ethiopia adopt Sustainable Agricultural Practices (SAPs) such as crop rotation and mixed cropping. I find that receiving agricultural assistance encourages farmers to adopt crop rotation and that both SAPs have a powerful impact on reducing food insecurity among households. In my third essay, I use machine learning machine learning (ML) techniques to predict food insecurity in four countries in Africa. Since food insecurity results from complex interactions between economic shocks, climate change and regional conflict, I compile high frequency data on these indicators.
I estimate two commonly used ML models, namely, Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to predict food insecurity at district level. I find that the most important factors in predicting food insecurity are food price and vegetation indices. Overall, I find that climate shocks, which are occurring at a high frequency and intensity, have detrimental effects on children’s education, health and overall well-being. Sustainable agriculture will help farmers cope better with climate shocks and alleviate food security in
the continent.
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2024-07-23
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Dissertation