Title:
Probabilistic Cost, Risk, and Throughput Analysis of Lunar Transportation Architectures
Probabilistic Cost, Risk, and Throughput Analysis of Lunar Transportation Architectures
Author(s)
Alemany, Kristina
Olds, John R.
Olds, John R.
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Abstract
The President's Vision for Space Exploration
presents a need to determine the best architecture and set of
vehicle elements in order to achieve a sustained human
lunar exploration program. The Lunar Architecture
Stochastic Simulator and Optimizer (LASSO), a new
simulation-based capability based on discrete-event
simulation, was created to address this question by
probabilistically simulating lunar transportation architecture
based on cost, reliability, and throughput figures of merit. In
this study, two competing lunar transportation architectures
are examined for a variety of launch vehicle scenarios to
determine the best approach for human lunar exploration.
Additionally, the two architectures are also compared for
varying available ground infrastructure and desired flight
rates. It is concluded that an expendable architecture is
favored, using man-rated versions of existing evolved
expendable launch vehicles (EELVs) for crew launches and
developing a heavy-lift launch vehicle for cargo launches.
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Date Issued
2006-03
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Resource Type
Text
Resource Subtype
Paper