Uncertainty quantification with mitigation actions for aircraft conceptual design

Wilson, Joseph Scott

Title:

Uncertainty quantification with mitigation actions for aircraft conceptual design

dc.contributor.advisor	Mavris, Dimitri N.
dc.contributor.author	Wilson, Joseph Scott
dc.contributor.committeeMember	Tai, Jimmy
dc.contributor.committeeMember	Mahadevan, Sankaran
dc.contributor.committeeMember	Nam, Taewoo
dc.contributor.committeeMember	German, Brian J.
dc.contributor.department	Aerospace Engineering
dc.date.accessioned	2015-06-08T18:36:24Z
dc.date.available	2015-06-08T18:36:24Z
dc.date.created	2015-05
dc.date.issued	2015-04-07
dc.date.submitted	May 2015
dc.date.updated	2015-06-08T18:36:24Z
dc.description.abstract	There are always differences between conceptual design estimates and the performance of a final product. These differences may result in constraint violations, which can have severe financial impacts. Such violations may necessitate downstream changes to recover aircraft performance. The ability to estimate the likelihood and impact of late-stage changes is key to mitigating the overall risk of a design. Reliability methods can treat design uncertainty; however, existing methods do not account for aspects of aircraft design such as sizing processes, the design freeze after conceptual design, and late-stage "mitigation actions'' taken when a performance constraint is violated. By accounting for these elements, new reliability metrics can be developed. In addition to the probability of compliance, the designer can determine the probability of recovery through mitigation actions, which helps determine the true likelihood that a design can meet the requirements. Hypotheses are developed to fill the identified gaps, resulting in Aircraft Recovery through Mitigation & Optimization under Uncertainty for Reliability. ARMOUR augments reliability methods by integrating aircraft sizing, uncertainty margins, and mitigation actions. ARMOUR is demonstrated on the conceptual design of a large civil transport and is exercised to explore previously obscured relationships. The field of probabilistic aircraft design is enhanced by the concurrent quantification of three elements in one design environment: probability of compliance, probability of recovery after failure, and traditional design criteria. ARMOUR enables the identification of designs which both meets reliability goals and optimizes a traditional performance metric, selecting a design that efficiently meets reliability requirements.
dc.description.degree	Ph.D.
dc.format.mimetype	application/pdf
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/1853/53586
dc.language.iso	en_US
dc.publisher	Georgia Institute of Technology
dc.subject	Aircraft
dc.subject	Conceptual design
dc.subject	Uncertainty
dc.subject	Reliability
dc.subject	Mitigation actions
dc.subject	Margin
dc.subject	Design
dc.subject	Sizing
dc.subject	Performance
dc.title	Uncertainty quantification with mitigation actions for aircraft conceptual design
dc.type	Text
dc.type.genre	Dissertation
dspace.entity.type	Publication
local.contributor.advisor	Mavris, Dimitri N.
local.contributor.corporatename	Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering
local.contributor.corporatename	Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL)
local.contributor.corporatename	College of Engineering
local.relation.ispartofseries	Doctor of Philosophy with a Major in Aerospace Engineering
relation.isAdvisorOfPublication	d355c865-c3df-4bfe-8328-24541ea04f62
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication	a348b767-ea7e-4789-af1f-1f1d5925fb65
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication	a8736075-ffb0-4c28-aa40-2160181ead8c
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication	7c022d60-21d5-497c-b552-95e489a06569
relation.isSeriesOfPublication	f6a932db-1cde-43b5-bcab-bf573da55ed6
thesis.degree.level	Doctoral