Launch Vehicle Engine Selection Using Probabilistic Techniques
Author(s)
Krevor, Zachary C.
Wilhite, Alan
Advisor(s)
Editor(s)
Collections
Supplementary to:
Permanent Link
Abstract
A new method for selecting the number of engines on a rocket stage based upon reliability
and cost is presented. This method will compare a new technique for reliability
analysis that results in a higher fidelity model when considering engine out capability. The
cost of each vehicle configuration is calculated to find an optimal balance of system cost
and reliability. The optimal solution will be determined by using a combined objective
function based on minimizing campaign cost and maximizing vehicle reliability.
When performing reliability analysis with conventional practices, an engine out scenario
is calculated using static tools. Another technique presented here will use a model that
can adjust the failure rate of the propulsion subsystem to account for a longer burn time
when an engine fails. The propulsion reliability will be combined with the other subsystem
reliability estimates to calculate the reliability of the overall system. The system reliability
will be one part of an objective function used in the optimization scheme.
The methodology is created by using a combination of industry standard tools along
with author developed models to create an integrated framework that allows for optimization.
The complete design space is explored using optimization to examine the maximum
reliability and minimum cost configurations. Additionally, Monte Carlo Simulation is used
to vary the single engine failure rate. The ranges for the simulation are drawn from historical
data and are used to capture the effects of a higher fidelity modeling technique.
Conclusions are made about the engine configuration on the S-II stage of the Saturn V
based upon the methodology presented in this paper.
Sponsor
Date
2007-04
Extent
Resource Type
Text
Resource Subtype
Paper
Rights Statement
Unless otherwise noted, all materials are protected under U.S. Copyright Law and all rights are reserved