Title:
Forecasting Technology Uncertainty in Preliminary Aircraft Design
Forecasting Technology Uncertainty in Preliminary Aircraft Design
| dc.contributor.author | Kirby, Michelle Rene | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | Mavris, Dimitri N. | en_US |
| dc.contributor.corporatename | American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics | |
| dc.contributor.corporatename | Georgia Institute of Technology. Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2005-05-26T14:01:56Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2005-05-26T14:01:56Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 1999-10 | en_US |
| dc.description | Presented at the 4th World Aviation Congress and Exposition, San Francisco, CA, October 19-21, 1999. | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | An evolved version of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) method is presented that provides techniques for quantifying technological uncertainty associated with immature technologies. Uncertainty in this context implies forecasting. Forecasting the impact of immature technologies on a system is needed to provide increased knowledge to a decision-maker in the conceptual and preliminary phases of aircraft design. The increased knowledge allows for proper allocation of company resources and program management. The TIES method addresses the milestones encountered during a technology development program, the sources of uncertainty during that development, a potential method for bounding and forecasting the uncertainty, and a means to quantify the impact of any emerging technology. A proof of concept application was performed on a High Speed Civil Transport concept due to its technically challenging customer requirements. | en_US |
| dc.format.extent | 253958 bytes | |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1853/6325 | |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Georgia Institute of Technology | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Georgia Institute of Technology | |
| dc.publisher.original | American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) | |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | ASDL; AIAA-99-01-5631 | en_US |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | ASDL; AIAA-99-01-5631 | |
| dc.subject | Technology impact forecasting | en_US |
| dc.subject | Aircraft design | en_US |
| dc.subject | Technology identification, evaluation and selection | en_US |
| dc.subject | Modeling of uncertainty | en_US |
| dc.subject | High-Speed Civil Transport | en_US |
| dc.title | Forecasting Technology Uncertainty in Preliminary Aircraft Design | en_US |
| dc.type | Text | |
| dc.type.genre | Paper | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| local.contributor.author | Mavris, Dimitri N. | |
| local.contributor.corporatename | Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering | |
| local.contributor.corporatename | Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL) | |
| local.contributor.corporatename | College of Engineering | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication | d355c865-c3df-4bfe-8328-24541ea04f62 | |
| relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication | a348b767-ea7e-4789-af1f-1f1d5925fb65 | |
| relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication | a8736075-ffb0-4c28-aa40-2160181ead8c | |
| relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication | 7c022d60-21d5-497c-b552-95e489a06569 |
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