Probabilistic Calibration of a Damage Rock Mechanics Model

Medina-Cetina, Zenon; Arson, Chloé

Title:

Probabilistic Calibration of a Damage Rock Mechanics Model

dc.contributor.author	Medina-Cetina, Zenon
dc.contributor.author	Arson, Chloé
dc.contributor.corporatename	Georgia Institute of Technology. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering	en_US
dc.contributor.corporatename	Texas A & M University. Dept of Civil Engineering	en_US
dc.date.accessioned	2014-06-16T14:34:15Z
dc.date.available	2014-06-16T14:34:15Z
dc.date.issued	2014-01
dc.description	Copyright © 2014 ICE Publishing
dc.description	DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/geolett.13.00059
dc.description.abstract	Current practice in the calibration of damage models requires downscaling the effects of experimental observations from macro/meso to micro. This process introduces uncertainty that is seldom quantified to reflect the expert’s confidence in the model predictions. A probabilistic calibration methodology can be introduced to overcome this problem. This paper shows a case study based on a damage rock mechanics model and triaxial experimental data on sandstone, where this approach is implemented to illustrate the impact of varying states of evidence (i.e. model complexity, experimental observations and expert’s judgement) on the model predictions. The probabilistic calibration method relies on the use of the Bayesian paradigm to assimilate experimental observations into the probabilistic definition of the model parameters. Results of this approach can be encapsulated into a single probability distribution or posterior, which is later used to assess the model performance. The proposed approach shows the potential to improve current practice in risk analysis since it allows tracing of changes of the model performance for varying evidence conditions in damage-sensitive geostructures such as nuclear waste disposals, landfills, geothermal wells and unconventional oil and gas formations, among others.	en_US
dc.embargo.terms	null	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Z. Medina-Cetina; C. Arson. 2014. "Probabilistic calibration of a damage rock mechanics model". Géotechnique Letters, Volume 4, Issue January - March, January 2014, pp 17 –21. DOI: 10.1680/geolett.13.00059	en_US
dc.identifier.doi	10.1680/geolett.13.00059
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/1853/51988
dc.language.iso	en_US	en_US
dc.publisher	Georgia Institute of Technology	en_US
dc.subject	Damage mechanics	en_US
dc.subject	Probabilistic calibration	en_US
dc.subject	Bayesian paradigm	en_US
dc.subject	Uncertainty	en_US
dc.subject	Geomechanical models	en_US
dc.title	Probabilistic Calibration of a Damage Rock Mechanics Model	en_US
dc.type	Text
dc.type.genre	Post-print
dspace.entity.type	Publication
local.contributor.author	Arson, Chloé
local.contributor.corporatename	School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
local.contributor.corporatename	College of Engineering
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