Broiler water demand: forecasting with structural and time series models
Author(s)
Houston, Jack E.
Adhikari, Murali
Paudel, Laxmi
Advisor(s)
Editor(s)
Hatcher, Kathryn J.
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Abstract
A profit maximization model and an ARIMA model were developed to forecast water demand for broiler production. Broiler production decisions are made in three successive stages -- primary broiler breeding flock, hatchery flock, and finishing broiler production. The forecasted numbers of broilers from structural and ARIMA models diverge significantly from a USGS physical model. Analysis indicates 15% slippage in water demand forecasting related to disregarding the role of economic variables. We find that an appropriate lag structure can fully capture the information used in structural models, assuming no structural change.
Sponsor
Sponsored by:
Georgia Environmental Protection Division
U.S. Geological Survey, Georgia Water Science Center
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service
Georgia Institute of Technology, Georgia Water Resources Institute
The University of Georgia, Water Resources Faculty
Date
2005-04
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Resource Type
Text
Resource Subtype
Proceedings