Calibration of Storm Surge Model for Hurricane Dorian in Jacksonville, FL
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Laesser, Madeline
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Storm surge induced by hurricanes causes a significant threat to coastal communities. With rising sea levels and climate change, the need for accurate storm surge modeling has become more critical. This study presents the calibration of the storm surge model, GeoClaw, to simulate Hurricane Dorian (2019) and its impact on Jacksonville, Florida. GeoClaw solves the shallow water equations with additional source terms and employs adaptive mesh refinement to resolve coastal flooding dynamics efficiently and accurately. The model was calibrated using synthetic gauges along the Jacksonville coast, including one placed in the exact area of the Mayport tide gauge, which the model was validated against observations from. The calibration involved optimizing friction parameters, mesh refinement levels, and adjusting locations of synthetic gauges to ensure alignment with observed peak surge and timing. Results show that GeoClaw successfully captured the spatial and temporal evolution of storm surge in Jacksonville during Dorian, with modeled surge closely matching tide gauge data. This calibrated model lays the groundwork for future simulations under climate change scenarios, including sea level rise and synthetic hurricane tracks. Accurate storm surge modeling is important for storm preparedness, resilient infrastructure design, and effective long-term climate adaptation strategies.
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Undergraduate Research Option Thesis