Title:
Designing Sustainable Launch Systems: Flexibility, Lock-In and System Evolution
Designing Sustainable Launch Systems: Flexibility, Lock-In and System Evolution
Author(s)
Silver, Matthew
De Weck, Olivier
De Weck, Olivier
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Abstract
NASA has recently made the decision to develop a heavy lift launch system with Shuttle-
Derived components, but myriad questions remain about technical design and
development strategy. The complexity of heavy lift launch systems and their
interconnectedness to the rest of the exploration architecture ensures that near-term
architectural design decisions will greatly affect long-term options for future space
exploration. This paper uses Real Options valuation to compare two possible
development plans for a heavy lift launch system. Taking into account cost profiles,
capacity, and uncertainty in demand, various heavy lift vehicle strategies are presented
and evaluated along plausible development paths. These strategies can be framed as
Shuttle-Derived-Architectures with "options" to change capability in the face shifting
demand and risk tolerance scenarios. Initial results suggest that life-cycle optimality is
heavily dependant on schedule uncertainty, while less sensitive to lunar and mars mission
architectures and initial mass in low earth orbit (IMLEO). Future work will involve more
detailed analysis of switching options and switching costs, as well as a more
comprehensive network model of switching decisions in order to compare more vehicle
configurations.
Sponsor
AIAA Space Systems Technical Committee ; AIAA Space Transportation Systems Technical Committee ; Space Technology Advanced Research Center
Date Issued
2005-11-09
Extent
1276639 bytes
1905 bytes
1276639 bytes
1905 bytes
1276639 bytes
Resource Type
Text
Resource Subtype
Presentation