Analysis of Uncertainty in Model Predictions for Lake Lanier
Author(s)
Osidele, Olufemi O.
Beck, M. B.
Advisor(s)
Editor(s)
Hatcher, Kathryn J.
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Abstract
In this paper we summarize a comprehensive
analysis of model-based predictions that accounts for
uncertainties due to: (i) the internal process parameters,
(ii) the temporal pattern of variation of external inputs
and forcing functions, and (iii) the initial state of the
system. We apply the Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis
(RSA) and Tree-Structured Density Estimation (TSDE)
procedures to a generalized ecosystem model of Lake
Lanier, Georgia. Our results suggest that the seasonal
variation in watershed inputs, water temperature, and the
timing of life-history stages of top predators, are as
critical to predicting lake eutrophication as the internal
ecosystem processes. These procedures are useful in
ranking priorities for policy actions and directing the
focus of scientific research on environmental systems.
Sponsor
Sponsored and Organized by: U.S. Geological Survey, Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Natural Resources Conservation Service, The University of Georgia, Georgia State University, Georgia Institute of Technology
Date
2001-03
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Resource Type
Text
Resource Subtype
Proceedings