Extension of a Simple Mathematical Model for Orbital Debris Proliferation Mitigation

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AAS-2011-173.pdf (957.5 KB)
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Lafleur, Jarret M.
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Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering
The Daniel Guggenheim School of Aeronautics was established in 1931, with a name change in 1962 to the School of Aerospace Engineering
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https://hdl.handle.net/1853/74867
Abstract
A significant threat to the future of space utilization is the proliferation of debris in low Earth orbit. To facilitate quantification of trends and the assessment of potential mitigation measures, this paper extends a previously proposed analytic debris proliferation model consisting of two coupled differential equations. Analyzed are the transient and equilibrium behavior of the parametric model, leading to assessment of the likely effectiveness of potential debris mitigation measures. Results suggest the current equilibrium capacity for intact satellites in low Earth orbit allows for only 25% of the satellites in orbit today and presents an average 2.8% per year risk of catastrophic collision for individual satellites. Results also suggest that direct removal of debris fragments has the potential to add decades or centuries of useful life to low Earth orbit. In addition to providing numerical results, this paper contributes a simple debris model particularly useful when more sophisticated models are unavailable or prohibitively time-consuming to utilize.
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2011-02
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