A Bayesian Approach to Non-Deterministic Hypersonic Vehicle Design

Files
SAE-2001-01-3033.pdf (2.64 MB)
Author(s)
Mantis, George C.
Advisor(s)
Editor(s)
Associated Organization(s)
Organizational Unit
Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering
The Daniel Guggenheim School of Aeronautics was established in 1931, with a name change in 1962 to the School of Aerospace Engineering
Organizational Unit
Organizational Unit
Series
Collections
Research Publications
Supplementary to:
Permanent Link
http://hdl.handle.net/1853/6306
Abstract
Affordable, reliable endo- and exoatmospheric transportation, for both the military and commercial sectors, grows in importance as the world grows smaller and space exploration and exploitation increasingly impact our daily lives. However, the impact of disciplinary, operational, and technological uncertainties inhibit the design of the requisite hypersonic vehicles, an inherently multidisciplinary and non-deterministic process. Without investigation, these components of design uncertainty undermine the designers decision-making confidence. In this paper, the authors propose a new probabilistic design method, using Bayesian Statistics techniques, which allows assessment of the impact of disciplinary uncertainty on the confidence in the design solution. The proposed development of a two-stage reusable launch vehicle configuration highlights the means to first quantify the fidelity of the disciplinary analysis tools utilized, then propagate such to the vehicle system level.
Sponsor
Date
2001-09
Extent
2769412 bytes
Resource Type
Text
Resource Subtype
Paper
Rights Statement
Rights URI