Using Autoregressive Modeling for Flow Forecasting in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin (ACF)

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Regan, Jeffrey
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The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin supports a multipurpose river system, which straddles Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. The Army Corps of Engineer’s management of the federal reservoir system has been under litigation between the three states and various stakeholders for more than 20 years. Among the difficulties in properly managing the river system is the uncertainty of future river inflows and the inability to properly forecast and plan for likely drought periods. In addition to the Corps’ need for reliable long-term flow forecasts for reservoir operation, the state of Georgia could use such forecast for properly managing off-stream water use when faced with probable droughts. This paper will develop an autoregressive inflow forecast model and evaluate the benefits of a multiple variable autoregressive model, which includes the ENSO index. The data that will be used is the unimpaired inflow dataset developed by the Corps and the historical ENSO index. The analysis will also measure how each forecasts compares monthly, and determine months in which forecasts are more useful.
Sponsored by: Georgia Environmental Protection Division; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service; Georgia Institute of Technology, Georgia Water Resources Institute; The University of Georgia, Water Resources Faculty.
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