A representation method for large and complex engineering design datasets with sequential outputs

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Iwata, Curtis
Mavris, Dimitri N.
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This research addresses the problem of creating surrogate models of high-level operations and sustainment (O&S) simulations with time sequential (TS) outputs. O&S is a continuous process of using and maintaining assets such as a fleet of aircraft, and the infrastructure to support this process is the O&S system. To track the performance of the O&S system, metrics such as operational availability are recorded and reported as a time history. Modeling and simulation (M&S) is often used as a preliminary tool to study the impact of implementing changes to O&S systems such as investing in new technologies and changing the inventory policies. A visual analytics (VA) interface is useful to navigate the data from the M&S process so that these options can be compared, and surrogate modeling enables some key features of the VA interface such as interpolation and interactivity. Fitting a surrogate model is difficult to TS data because of its size and nonlinear behavior. The Surrogate Modeling and Regression of Time Sequences (SMARTS) methodology was proposed to address this problem. An intermediate domain Z was calculated from the simulation output data in a way that a point in Z corresponds to a unique TS shape or pattern. A regression was then fit to capture the entire range of possible TS shapes using Z as the inputs, and a separate regression was fit to transform the inputs into the Z. The method was tested on output data from an O&S simulation model and compared against other regression methods for statistical accuracy and visual consistency. The proposed methodology was shown to be conditionally better than the other methodologies.
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