[00:00:05]
>> All right so how do I rewind the Welcome to the machine and her seminar today they were fortunate to have Dr Chee rate from the Morrigan ai to present an interesting research point crashes are they into related to by Nash applications a quick introduction to Dr she way is that he received his Ph d. in machine learning and image processing from the National Polytechnic Institute old to loose university to lose friends in September to 715 and the basher a degree in Electrical Engineering found a high number 60 in China.

[00:00:44]
Dr ways. That her thesis is facing fusion of multi-band images are powerful to pursue preservation was rated as one of the best the faeces. Add in the university to loose 2050 that Joe way has worked on multi-band image processing as a research associate in the past Laboratory University of Cambridge you know u.k. and as a research associate at Duke University he has also worked at Simon's copper a technology and a research scientist in store 718 Dr way served as a vice president and maturing scientist at j.p. Morgan is research has been focused on machine and machine learning deep learning time series analysis computer vision image processing basing statistical inference and so on without much further do let's welcome Dr De Lay to give the top today thank you very much.

[00:01:42]
Thank you very much of introduction Hello everyone works are very welcome to join Lisa stamina I am today I would talk a little bit about what he's done here or to apply the eternal machine learning to some serious application those basically as you can see here we are talk about the Chinese models at some point processes for Financial Times there's us Malaysia so yeah I mean more starting today the u.k. is to be like the limit on the book mother and some to explain what what what I mean if you are not familiar with me you know the book.

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Of. The baby or there are 3 parts what I mean approve a lot of things we see how much can we have and also a big end of the talk are you free from work with families sir the protocol is well the background about of a national epic a show about what is another cooks and the why we want to mother him in the book in a 2nd part is more bodies are operating theory about a plan for Sestak an imprecise.

[00:02:50]
House process if your Because already familiar with this we can skip early many many parts here and the last of the 3rd part is about the model theory how we adapt as you say they depend in the hopes process and it is construed aversion to. Modeling and also if you have some control or even a policy Malaysia an apprentice commission.

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If your partner wants everything about your it so they can have a separate life that is more about our project results I care I think we. Merlot to 10 minutes we can do some time on their Ok so what is a limiter or good so you know of an actual market or you can special you are already the market so buyers and sellers limits are a limit on the books so that if to sell him and all the others is story of the book Ok and it can be analyzed for Al Gore high frequency trading of the patients a quarter or just like Mark in making strategies Obs my future strategy and also like sums it all up I would trust or just buy the hedge fund the weather or even all the comic yours of course your forward edition or the other books like you have like the toothpaste or we have like the fire and the sale so why is a bit before the other side is ourself Ok and the each color bar is a different prices so if you walk through was this direction on the right direction the president now if you walk towards the left side the prices going down Ok and.

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So we have a 4 huge price level that that the height of the color bars in the quantity of the of the other you are crazy and so naturally we will have the best the so-called pastor of the price and the best to be the price and the difference between example to ask and best to be because the spreads and I mean unnaturally when you buy a credible stop you from the market with the press.

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You see something like this in the middle price because I'm average between the Us press and the Bill Press and universe Hello we've had to read a little book in this way so this part of I can. Represents like the supply and this part of the evidence that is not so this is more like the supply and demand balance.

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So I mean neck and economy theory that electric vehicle hands which drive wives are underpriced and I mean that's in fact the reason the almost why we want women although it is so important for a market awful equity market because the price the namin is controlled by the interplay between the incoming water flow and the other books.

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So. Here's a place you can tell demonstration of how the order flow of fact the shape of the book the the that was if you're this unusual state of the you know book we have the why all are here and others here so naturally you early in the study mother the prices are higher than the in others and then you have to see some by others coming under some.

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Some or some other and they will come up with a deeply from most recent most aggressive. Study mothers and you can see in this part is taken so is this part of and about the use of depleted and why there are others from the other side with that it's a little he is taken and then the spread is while it's ready to become much wider than before I was kind of give you some numbers a little verse a state one the mid price in Iraq around 100 and after These are live pictures taken you can see the spread is much wider and the middle price going up a little bit right and the front have time to time we also have new orders arriving only when you For example when you place a new limit order it will be for somewhere in the alley you know cook and then when suddenly quit it is a return and there you have more there's return and you can see the spreads are becoming narrow narrow the final stage will become like this so here are the.

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Spread even narrower than the beginning so in practice when you really buy a stock in the market all you can see is only these prices mean price and you can see from step one step 6 the press in fact I'm not in the much it's like to have a.

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I think it's just increase from 10200.50.5 dollars change when in fact a lot of things are already happened and these are liquidity economic returns the market is quite quite dynamic Ok maybe overhaul of your financial You have like the stock market or you have the. Effect for exchange market you have a credit a bond market and fury over markets a stock market is the most actually one of those people of buying stocks and people love printers that's why you can see the liminal book always have a very high or entity and liquidity all the time.

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And so the other as I mentioned I mean what is important those up right now mix is are is given by this order flow and the price and the mix is in fact one of the most in important factor to all of this if you're making the for the trainers the always the Holy cow if you.

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Could stimulate or for the notebook let's not surprising that they think collusion is are we use all the support of data and this in fact is quite popular in almost all the investment banks market makers and. Yeah nitpicker there are other telecommuter for reinforcement learning back as insight from one of the problem is the very 1st 3 or 4 of the historic data is sort of the worst single most color ought to I mean if it happens you have instead we will have a time machine to go back to your day to run a market again so that's I think one of them a problem the 2nd part is the if we want to do like some cons of factory inference and this is in fact a quite important for a for the present strategy is better for the large orders is in Malawi a problem for us I mean for you individual investors we if you want to buy who stocks when 1100 were stocks I mean your ad.

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Will not affect the price the market down much what as elected Morgan or the other Lakota man Morgan Stanley does the important market makers or executers in the market or your action will affect the press were much and you have to be careful that that's why this is a huge problem for much the makers.

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And let me summarize Are you bitter so the in fact the market is because your process is not a deterministic What is the no single most color and the. That something is not possible to be realized in a faith or data and know we are part of the market instead of a mercy be observer so our action will affect the market a lot and so what do we really want to do here is them we want to model the influence which are arriving others so this is not a hard one stance of the market the financial market is a quite a difference if you regard each other flows is quite different than you wishing for past all we can for subway but it is a rival cause of we were not affected the polling was already in the market you can see that when people buy stocks to buy let's say your buy an arm of the stock or test the stock in the price is going up and more people want to follow you have his or her behavior very obvious and when the press is going down and people are standing and more people are falling and they want to sell on the UK you might have a market crash the panic is spreading quite fast so this base tells us that each event or each other arriving is affected by most recent history or what happening now is a fact in the future you know quite you know quite instructive actually way and so we won't really want to model is a huge difference between the arriving orders so that means that we cannot use terms like homogeneous post but we use our nominees Pozen process which means the intensity is or is are excited it's changed or it's triggered by the events that arrive in others and we want to explore the market dynamics given by the other flows so one measure the market dynamics you can see in the ball anything related to market not to the others less like the current spread or us on the other in balance rock.

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Throwing balance something like that and we all. So on to what we want makes a model works in the financial world when you have a chronic mathematics and also x. when the book you need to use a printer model Ok so this really will be a different from the black box and I see our user now works at it really.

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But it might give birth look for mess but once you have a problem you don't know which party for the fix are so in the probabilities of something quite important to make it up after all to. An actual use cases so yeah the propose approach is a concern after depending how close we arrive there are stubborn step.

[00:12:18]
Into the sample details so Ok so for any questions or comments you know you collected from the audience or a. Yes I was going until as you could Ok. Yeah this part is a little bit ago I don't know how on a story I knew go through this maybe let's go to the one percent in Asia and.

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I guess I was as a little bit of points here so Congress has become a Congress that's right so we are counting the number of the rivals and if we're 4 different human type so here is the measure of the human space. And the for each arrival when you tell which events type it belongs to and this is our basic accumulation of our number of arrivals for each event and I'll possum for preserving our citizen I'm one of the most popular up one percent I think still quite widely applied in the financial war.

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Wasn't hers a homogeneous person process basically is always a reflash use of cost and they have appalling really properties or 1st these are the usual cons in number is 0 and it has independently Crimmins is a quite important means that the number of arrival within time he and the people he wanted to see one plus absolute asked aim and the precision the same as Archie 202 class action.

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And the number of events a point in any interval of land is are was a random variable with Carmina lambda e.g. So this in fact gave us quite this a quite nice property and that's why the name is a prosecution has a number of the rivals within a certain time interval is up for a positive future and a natural.

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Variation from this assumption as from these are property that. In turbos between arrivals we follow explosions whenever a to show we panic around the and also another interesting properties like the arrival. Himes the self with the follow up. Ernest to Chicago managed to **** on the yeah that's the abyss of positive fusion and here's a example of all the positive to me looks like yeah I make this a very simple.

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Example or just a tool lets you have our high level idea of how are you going to aim here in the UK b. is a b. if you sirrah if you can remember if you cannot help difference between us and b. you know you need to remember this white means are by the other one is a step.

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Of what I will continue to use are going to be because this is like the words we are always you can deny they were very easy. For the human spirit question but we only have to even type up an a b. as a puzzle counting process we have about $2.00 to $2.00 to even types and one means us going into means be alert intensity the winds with the open fire or not with equal to what So I feel it here very clear just want to remind you that it is not have this is some environs it's always a constant and yet this is the intensity process and the arrival as you can see of the difficulty you have many more.

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Green those red dots of you seriously be like double tax though the intensity of the both hands you will. Have the details given under warrant that was Hamza a lender to. The next authority the whole process as I mentioned we want to capture the exact Isham situation you or your friends between the.

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Arriving event yes at least. 2 questions on albums as to cause now have all part of the process and just an observer to restore his passes or half past. For very good at the 1st part I mean the 1st well what do you feel we'll ask if we can or from would not have been part of the process or just after I guess you're talking about some was into the action or action will have an impact on the process.

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Questions about what did for me there not that it was an absolute privilege and yes if you are not part of the market for your action will not you will not influence the market if it is post was a you well 1st you cannot use it if you cannot use Pozen process because the markets and others after you read each other your order might not affect the others or the like the others from youth fusion from the humongous from Guatemala and the really affected tribes I mean all the others are executed by Risa large institutions as all change markets.

[00:17:19]
But something which isn't nice you can do is you can do that testing without considering the influence of your your of your inserted others I don't know whether I answer this question I mean for the modern parties to know to turn to recess or any nominee is present with a simple if you want well for the fact that in part you do you care you can do that well and our how we show you later in fact is the demo we show you that when you when the life of the of other changes you can see how the market affected is the other it's not the side because one or 2 it on affect too much or the when the when the number of the others or the quantity of others is increasing You can see the price it's proven by other very very obvious I don't know whether this is is clear or where that makes sense to me thank you thank you.

[00:18:14]
Yeah so here's a call or a hoax process. Them a difference here I mean instead of the passive the constants we have this part is part of it because it's our it's our cortex that is in part to consider all the you through us from events E.-Prime over human Ok so obviously I guess some of you if you're familiar with pointers as this is not of this is this for me quite a for me that was some of you guys if you don't want to process the obvious guy me this part is a sketch of the summation of all the events happening in the history Ok so there's this kernel is the key from the basically the kernel controlling you press a process crime over you and if the primacy could we we call it of the self citation and if is a primes is not equal to the It means are it's across the South Asian.

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Yeah heroes give you one example I give example of a person who's as well as a way I think would make sense that would be a more sense to the example here of for example we have a 2 to measure Hotspurs us asking to be in the this is our arrival time for the humans have one is he or other temple humans have 2.

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And when you computer the computer the intensity is very simple the land that he is like for us because you bet it's a new one is a constant and there you just need to consider all the cross subset Asia across at Asia Ok you know this interview basically is already coming present so it's basically that of the star of all of us and so for example you can write intensely at people who serve in NY on that plus absent all Antigua's we live in so you basically doesn't need to count how many events occur before this time stamps or when he could use them and see that he won t. to the 3 d. for this 4 events are what will occur before and then you have the.

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4 Corners here right and. This is the 1st part of because it is a subscribe in fact a decided by the events act whether it's a cross he's had a shot or it's a self is at issue and when the time is increasing from us tonight all night tonight I love you does Al what happens.

[00:20:38]
For him well what what what happens are there is interval Ok so this is just a to demonstrate how we can compute the intensity of a hospital says manually. And. Yeah the Curnow for the for the colonel part I mean. The 22 for me the one of the most popular weapon is not that's Ruby when it was at but it has the main reason I read it here it has a very nice our properties and easy to compute when you are the last mission it or the it's where you are is characterized by true crime eaters because acquisitions which are for.

[00:21:18]
This list also tell us how you intend to jump when the new event of a new order arrives in the tech equation space this tells the case speed of the of the new events and is currently covered by these 2 her meters and yeah and the set of a kernel can be read as are funded paid our customers are from the base where our Pfizer diagonal means that we only have ourselves a teacher so you know very high level we are for you can understand as a newbie like the converse metrics what is known as Or to be symmetric.

[00:21:52]
Each item in the base it tells you how the elements the prime effect are event the Ok. According to the finishing here so yeah here's a. Don't worry if you get all full on occasions I mean doesn't understand our high level ideas and maybe focus more on the reverse order and the numbers after that here this is a temple of the house group and the rebels different color also marks difference of different human types and you can see them a difference here is the intensity if not 2 constant anymore every time you have one event arrives you have a chance of the intensity for both events because you have are.

[00:22:37]
You have the cross and self-examination. For for both events. Ok let me yes and tell you this directly to the to the others I'm already out there on Fortunately it's not enough yet so them know the proof well or some rather review the pros and cons on why we can all use it so the intensity are governed by the.

[00:23:03]
Event occurs and point arrivals and innocent of any tradition this part is very nice to have her in a smaller one than the some part of another hockey's are the house course as they are able to incorporate and in those in a state where a boss is quite an ignoble older than me and me for him and that's what I show you this table of history means that when you How are you meant arriving.

[00:23:28]
No matter what is the market looks like or no matter it is who thought almost all of what you make a stock you have something similar if it does not depend on the card that you are Mark is on the card card market state of the spread of the market at this stock is popular or not is the reality of the stock or the are already 3 members of the stock pile if you like something does not directly as related to them always tell police are more like the environment or stays in this part of music and the president arrival rate of the others in the small is not influenced by state of unknowable that's why we want to incorporate the state in the book model.

[00:24:13]
To that's why give us the sense a dependency. Moderator. Ok I don't know and questions so for now yes. Yes yes. Actually somebody asked a question and he said Never mind that was clear yesterday who runs. An immense market so these are marked the process doesn't matter a pattern or a get over if you if you're familiar with Mark's point process is no it's much easier to understand it's still open a lot for later Ok really that used their dependence well.

[00:24:53]
Maybe a very high level they depend on the whole process is one special case of this is so called a hybrid a market point process yeah I'm a difference between a state and a market. Mark you can regard it as an absolute of the events where you have one or the recount as asking to be or the quantities this can all be modeled as a mark of the state here if it's done or it's not that's very directly associated with the event itself it can be something else the point is that we can be the last is another thing that today.

[00:25:27]
Is not necessary it can be like the g.t. I mean it is or the the temperature event this is not necessary to associate it with your. Arriving order or a cream event this is a one the Me difference so you really if you have to think about it carefully you think that the older arrives and with many marks and this stays changed to change or are still jump happens just after that it's not exactly a similar in yesterday.

[00:26:00]
I was going a little later this would be very clear when you go to the definition of the state in the most work. Yet so. Sort of Paris in an interstate or is an event is a is an event is a process with events current events type your event type and x. is a state of here so this pair is there the dependent House recess with transient distribution fire of.

[00:26:29]
All of this. This let me 1st experience 2 parties in one of the easier so the pace reflects or if you remember this is like the baseline the background enhanced in part of the. Part of the ponderous as an exaggeration Colonel I have and you guys rightly so are accurate like in front of each other and x. is a state and a follows a mark of transition metrics Ok to it is a Mark Mark Mark of change and this transition distribution 5 basic characterize how all the states which are.

[00:27:03]
Yeah this is basically so the entire point process corner has this intensity lambda this in no p. difference with what I showed you before there's one minor change here is if you have noticed that is Curnow it depends on the corner state Ok or certain is Colonel depend on the current state or the other me so this means for example when the sobriety equal to one tick the in past the influence of the events crumple really is different from a when is what is a larger than one tick so the fact of makes much sense you know financial market this is like when the stock of the popular people want to buy and in fact your action your the influence of your By action does not cost that much in France and other everybody's nose is popular.

[00:27:56]
When this stock is likely not that popular and the you prefer p.t.o. there then the market we will have on much will be much heavily influenced the bio action because your actions were kind of are. You know are the only words like you actually reveal we're right because this is not a very popular so that Carter stated it could help.

[00:28:18]
Affect the this is at issue and a self or cause in addition very much here. But the fact is this is a little bit of a complex one as if the really. Example You can see is quite straightforward Yeah actually is a actually quite. Good question and until he starts out 1st all.

[00:28:41]
Chickens as Bush knew. He wants to because a kind of the panel acts **** acts as. If it is a can your right this is can be cut Reza back and there is no function but it is not so hidden is or is observable police and yeah it's a it's a conditions.

[00:29:03]
Of this is basically are already of conditions if you see one and your right is Colonel depends on the karma state. The Think of example here I will be very clear. Or a company of it so way one measure why the companies term from here to here you can see I put the States in a super script so why me is that the current state is wired to music on states to Ok so this basically tells out the self exaltation as states who was there sort of forced in one at least observation forced into.

[00:29:38]
Them a difference if you know this model and the previous how small are you that for each salvation term if you need it would you need to multiply by. The is good that the measure understand space before you remember we are like 22 terms now we have it for 3 years here.

[00:29:58]
And this is exactly what is and isn't the past hour was your current state is. A. Yeah the question is. How to evaluate in the legal. Ground lean one hears the baseline intensity ISIS This was Ok if we question. I think this or even the. Mission part I can tell you all the permit the answer is all the parameters are learned from the data so what army does the New Year's parties us we are learning as are part of a how you can remember the rest of this our colonels are learning that is our tradition it's usually also to go into learning so the pressure to estimate including the it's light intensity are found to be no country as a colonels and as a finite fixed within the 400 meters.

[00:30:51]
Of all group of all group of our meters we need to at me from the data. And and of the only store you've got about it I mean the estimation in fact can be done quite a while either way off before we. Go through our part is interesting I mean the feedback a little bit different like you would hope that we do know from the way really terrible at the mission of the other commodity in the stands or other you guys I think love me know what all and everyone.

[00:31:21]
Yeah I'm very hopeful because you. Are great looking forward to the mission the question as missions down by less likelihood or Lisa square or some other metrics point which of the actual mission of the Premier's are done by still done by mass likelihood you have to read this as an analogy yes O'Keefe and.

[00:31:44]
And so yeah I think you know these parties are even more opinions. If this is a plan a group this is a pretty penny poll how close as you want to use the more the other flow on is remember that we don't really harm like you practice we also have this kind of daily intraday Auberry diffusion where the land me is like approach the number of orders per day or almost one month and you can see for some day you have many more others on the other days it's no surprise the piece of the before holidays or it's Friday I think that here you have are maybe the memory days of our labor days the the markets are much less active than the working days and also this we have these are you for the future so this is like when you open the market the market is open the market close and you really when markets are open a market close you have lost some people so you really have these are like.

[00:32:50]
The comeback form of the of the of the other of the. How can see now that we have a special impulse I don't remember Ok I mean this is an intraday pattern is also quite a popular or a quite obvious in the film or market so that's why you decide these are they depend on how can we also have this intraday and a loss why call it a moderated are independent caucus process you can think it is more likely the high frequency part this is like the.

[00:33:22]
This is a record high frequency this is our media frequency it is our low frequency Ok this is a long term it's a midterm it is a short term. And urge if he really will use up his wise function to describing the intraday. Yeah I'll see. If it's part of this is not or isn't more for the occasions and the.

[00:33:45]
Latter we can Maurice with our s.t.m. and he's this based model. Here obviously Here is another example to shore holders dependence hogs it can be about I think. If this. Is something I want to mention as your mention of this is this. The kernel to pass on the current state it done no less really mean that we need to double the number or triple the number of kernels we doesn't need to make a selection like for in this event which checks are states of the state is to we all accept that this term Ok all articulate terms were still 2 and he and just across all of them.

[00:34:26]
One part on. I police because it easier to understand I mean 1st we expand it and as in remove the other part which is not. The know what if I or. Careless and for his part. Yeah here is a example I think this is of quite interesting example to show you what it hold up steady benefits for works so imagine that here you have who are asking all their arrives right and you have a drop of the on the right and the Greens are going to be a drama both about an obvious that's a.

[00:35:02]
That that trump of a is hiring an example of the right because this is our asking other. And the state is what the state the state is equal to one by one as they do equal to 2 as c. like the one more here this this event Ok this is do are asking all or part of the May difference is are the cards a market state is not a wants to is so the state is like the spread is a moment to fix the here you can see you also have a jump for balls.

[00:35:34]
Asking on a building intensity or the dump of the video others intensity is much higher than asking others right here basically mean that we have a much stronger across is that Asians are the stuff that Asia basically a caress are far too easy. Is on the excitation kernel of a South Asian equivocations want to state he would have to so and to attend so when you want other states where you have a much stronger cross at Asian then subset Asia that's a part I want to of ever sell it and we are very close all of this Oracle still dependent Hospers us is not the one we directly applied for them in our book so why a slap.

[00:36:22]
On that here's a more morally adhere to the execution logic the 1st part is that this fusion of the events is not in fact not expressly constrained by the current state or whether the army the white sample was the cream event might well it's the execution logic. There is an aggressive order we'll never arrive when the spread is what you call one tick.

[00:36:44]
Ok upriver just to skip this part was the high level idea here is our When the market is come in some states. In the some states with a means the problem of the probability of some event occurring is almost 0. And refuse to understand it's like. Imagine that your invention if you only have 100 who stocks and as a you people are placing all their lives they want to buy a 200 stocks so it is not possible to have this kind of other flow conditional on you only have $100.00 stocks so this kind of a constraint is not considered in the event a house for recess and also the other one is obvious this transition is not a continent magics and for the be driven by the interaction between all the flows and you know who stays the payscale here already know.

[00:37:40]
Every part of this is why it tells you how the state jumps between the different events between the different states. Under different events or get to a code of your own ends. For example plays a French directing show there are a couple questions as in for clarification why the.

[00:38:01]
Audience asked how does Colonel Kay depend on this. Very we haven't specifications for I think. The questions of how Katie passed on the current state right yes we are so let's say this with k one to me that this is a cross the patient is a process of events was already meant to write and if you don't have it date with it is the same for all the.

[00:38:29]
Other cases where it will always condition always there you have to check the status at the time as if the let's say the x. as it is equal to one and the unions who use the kernel you need to use the kernel conditional on this I mean the kernel with the state equal to what is currently still equal to 2 is different though you can think you have are 2 groups of are for and are fatal to as a unit here is that clear.

[00:39:01]
Here is a lamp for me you have Visa are for one are for 2. Not all one is the. Correct position when they go to war or for 2 cartridges across it as or that patient wanted equal to 2 but you have to Mohammed or 2 at me.

[00:39:20]
Yes Anderson a question yes some people as a person question. So the purpose here is we're going to ask them all to the factors of the point person who will mass like you had asked me and they're all and once we have the point prophecy that the then model which is ears open for prediction then assumes that right there is a question I will not claim we are using We are using it for prediction I will say Where you going for simulation The main difference is are the pretty because with that we are trying to model the intensity right prediction can be modeled as our supervisor on a problem here is more like a general model of whether we are we are quantum of the conditions future or stewardess is a solution we are.

[00:40:07]
Ok I think of that or the demo it's not clear how this is being used with You can't think that we are trying to predict what happens conditional on what you have up to now you know very short time what are you really want to use this model to predict the last 3 what's what's up with the crest to be prime minister.

[00:40:29]
It's not necessary to do it to you this model you can you can you can order models and I think that's maybe more efficient you only if you don't model for press and I mean that's enough. Yeah. Of Here I think. We have 802115 right yes I have 10 I don't want to literally show that you get in Ok are proven 6 or is a constraint or this is a highly repeated to the market a fusion logic that's why we have different human types and we how these are different.

[00:41:07]
Why some parts are fixed amuse your own one some parts as media and also the symmetric. Let's get this part yeah some of you alter the. Also if the scene reports in Regent Park let's go to the mission part of getting you guys are interested so there are other parties we want to add to meter the translation probability fire and the base race and the kernels one to the right of the kernel including our front page I mentioned.

[00:41:38]
Yet the same. Solution is quite quite a quite comfortable in fact we came across a leg hood as are 2 separate will form with spectral fire and unity and a maximum electrically the community can be achieved by solving 2 independent of my vision problem and so the one respect that when you want to see what means are one process and meters is no harder than that of our ordinary house process of human vision problems so what does that agree but I'll ask him you're off already from you know we've of course wonder what you are in for so much where to focus that from here this is what the.

[00:42:20]
Likelihood function looks like but we take a look at reason and it can be but it could become as 2 parts the 1st of course only depends on. The why the switch or transition metrics of the market champ. How true is all of likelihood of a house resets the Orthodox process Ok so no difference between this and the house percent explaining a direction and the also the data out in this part is only the event as they are part of the how to turn you have the time stamps that's the most important the I think so yeah the one at what I want to say here is that.

[00:43:01]
The model seems very complex and lupita coupled with the state of the state and the event Hi Paul. We're trying to cobble all the way we rewrite the law like the function we can fund that's if it's no harder than the estimation of the of our of our caucus process and in this part of the if your for me it was a mark of a collision masses this can be completely executed the impact of course on solution police right now Ok actions later so.

[00:43:35]
Here you're assuming the temporal influence of national coal. From that point well into the temporal kernel into financial. Times. Yeah well it was what for this for this like what we don't have is our assumption that all matter you wish for because you also use power now Colonel if you want to change ours Yeah and.

[00:44:02]
Yeah because you see the land I see I don't know if you are actually a form of this out of the same template function you are now so I guess that is the integral there is an integral of a teacher yeah yeah so this is really cause competition Allan shows that here this is fine because you have like one dimensional interval it can yeah yeah yeah you're that meter right under this part is most the consuming that there's a crowd or if you've That's why your I mean Conti we are using kernel follow you can what the kernel is not not only one kernel someone call kernel for difference left to take a race to capture like that.

[00:44:47]
Yeah the capture of how has it that it's a long tail was a fact in some some cases you got it yeah and thank you yeah. Ok. You know log function come here isn't this way. Yeah I think this is a process we can conceive this for you and the what is a summation of the committee comp of these are 2 forms and I want to estimate of the 5 metrics we have the Course from to Lucia in or for the new I think it's.

[00:45:17]
There is no no difficulty and the. Lack of same as I am now asked now more to look at Micromax woman who has neither of the ordinary prosperous s. in the UK It was his job let me assume to mean just the right time to. Ok so this is a more up of was the music.

[00:45:46]
I mean he comes. Yes So we did assimilate How was true something. Some help a general hear from the simulator. Remember that other American Yashoda some daily fact. Of different accounts of the 4 you stay. And you can see another general they are in fact the matches the description of a real good half quite well and then this is a person yet it is a the some statistics us credit I will give you you can think about this as a modest fusion of your charity data we want to show the other objects to make their highs or close to the the really hot this is it this is a transfusion of the events an est or a different or even types you know under this is on the date one is on stage 2 here and this is the most exciting part Ok So imagine as we see the this is the other this is some historical data right and this is the stock price is going up here again to curve here is asking other and then.

[00:47:00]
The brown curve means it is up in orders to be in price you are either you have a calf between these 2 price that is us grant and the for example we want to see what happens if we insert order here so you can see that you have a kind of upward momentum to push the price to go up prime when if we could ask you know there are a few mins our standing order which would put us any order we hope for is a price to be either a Clinton's.

[00:47:33]
And a forward momentum will be smaller than the price will be. Will be influenced by this order and this all there is large enough we expect that the prices we're going down instead of working out when the this is something really similar. From are from others so 1st we use are all the other says it's just a 100 it.

[00:47:59]
Doesn't it's not a very big size in a each flash is our one most Colorado is a white realization of the simulator. This other is fueled by and are on the market and you can see your read is all or can not survive number one a c. after a few seconds the sums resolution you have a probability to 2 to enter the other Papis and no less increase in the again this is a standing order so this all there is a cause that would drive the price down.

[00:48:31]
And there are less increase this policy is to one solid and you can see the 1st the surviving time of the other is a real be lumbered steady slumber and you have a high probability that the president live in Dima some simulations and. Let's make this all a size pencil then and you can see the survival Tammy's much longer and in most cases the price is right in down downwards instead of going up so with this kind of work was it was almost it is a prediction is more like our contract or your friends so that readers want to know what if I place up the other here are how the price we're going down and this is our only the animations to show.

[00:49:17]
To show like different to you as if in the past and this is more are more that is because they believe that we crease the other size. Lowly like from our from what is a 0 means a basically you don't even frantic series that record. And we increase aside from while 100 was a little 500 Absalom and you like 50 is old and it is a really large orders and you can see that the again of the in certain directions do this and in same others as why the price is going down and after the.

[00:49:52]
And only because the. Only means being or so the others are of the rig is a price change and the horizontal is the time interval each curve represents the different size of the others you know this era Boris because we run like 100 simulations and the mix average as well you have these are the guzzlers see this is a 10 fifties Alan and you can see the price is even a much lower right and it is a 25 saloon here to the silent because these are small others the less influence of of them of the user to all of them to the present an excess of it where the owner says he's a small enough I mean basically don't affect the price than much.

[00:50:39]
Yeah this is business a press trip to see him think yeah this is the other mention the one mention attempt to skew the older means when you place them by other Us Senate all in American and they are there you have another order from the other direction of the they might do yours or so this is likely the time too few to order and you can see with the increase of the other side the time the time needed to the court a few the others are much much longer.

[00:51:14]
And yeah this is a percentage of the field Ok when we place our likely beat or in a market after like a certain time if it's not a few it will be if you guys are using Robin Hood or any training of where you live you are asked you are to like end of the day or some special date and after the date it will it will be canceled or it's Pamela and you can see that these are in a resort a way to modem if not not not feel it so when all is quiet it's more easy how we're high probability will be fewer or when the other side is the really large the funeral ratio is much much smaller.

[00:51:55]
Yeah that's pretty much what I want to discuss with a Make-A for a summary of where we live in a 5 to 10 minutes to 4 more questions of the House process because you all you know it was to model these are 2 way interaction between the self of course the patient for the process of governing of her temper for us and us a process is quite enough it's a system it is a market.

[00:52:18]
And the only way to also generate. A tip in a host you know the concern of the notebook which the capsule is the feedback loop between the other flow the others and the shape of a novel if it is more his party more likely to predation with Alpha in the financial background and a machine or a on back maximum likelihood of a major or are they depend a whole process can be really stand either from the.

[00:52:44]
Ordinary folks process yeah I mean the simulation part we don't have a 100 because today you guys are interested or we can talk more in the country and the real data are still benefiting you skinny if you can some future work that if I were doing so is almost equate I mean.

[00:53:03]
More creative event types as days are deeper level orders in a modeling hiding hardly mentioned and in fact I think your become very good point I mean we are all trying to merge these days with marks like. So that there would be like to mark a pen and a house 1st s. for for the real remodel I may face tomorrow.

[00:53:28]
Yeah that's pretty much what I want to talk today. Any questions. Great thank you so much and they win the round of work for old 12th of every squeaky Here's a hint if you're a nice lunch or something. I get them additional question from the audience. First question is isn't restricting the Colonel's to fixed function restricted the current state and history can be muddled was any all to requests in Mobile such as alledged t.m. or Transformers allowing for better flexibility.

[00:54:06]
Is the 1st question which is. Yeah I think that's a very good point yes yes you can use. This Aruba like the Enterprise in France was so you used to live at mit in the pan you don't directly you assume that the Premier's is are generated from your kids over there so you're saying that we all as media are what they are or fly directly we assume that they are the function of the most recent history and the new computer you know l.c.m. or us into 2 or more that not yourself or Misha.

[00:54:41]
Yes that's also something we value or try. Both slits. It's enough freshness insulation that are using these models for solution I'm curious on how accurate they are in the long term as this Apache passes all considered Dabney's the task was that the path taken time on the panel previously that this is America and I have a clear last quarter I missed the.

[00:55:10]
Not also the just think how I can exist militia model will be in the long term as does the path of process is that believes the Catholic will that it's the Catholic and time and events get the pen. In the other several years ago a great question but I want to clarify we mentioned that the model is accurate as soon as your talking about something else to provide us with that is accurate in your comparison ground truth and I see or hear it is a little more I see the studies are still generally model we want to propose a principle model to a moderate amounts of culture as a market and.

[00:55:56]
This is also a similar question from our stakeholders and really want to see how can I evaluate the model and that's all I assure at the very beginning we should act on results are like the statistics on of the general. Now to to compare with general data and.

[00:56:15]
Under real data to show that they are sooner or later not not enough and the was the Twitterers of the cons you really want to see that when I take some actions. The response from the recent simulator to the be no different or no much different from a response from the real market so this is really something hard to justify I mean only the traders use the the simulator and they can tell you all this this result makes sense that's why I show you guys the results why you sort of order the president the president given up of course.

[00:56:52]
This is like some test from our from the printers for the traders request requirements we have down to demonstrate that it makes sense to the user to use the simulator as a as a as a kind of like environment for in 400 you're not alleging a really beautiful something like this quality piping and you have a have paper you have a few other people already over the archive called the pageant so they really require a ha for you Burmans to we are to be offered to them to agents learn the actions to maximize their rewards Yeah I don't know whether this is a discount or question this is more.

[00:57:36]
My money my point. Thank you I also have a middle class questions regarding the 1st part in the end do you have m l u s mission parts are his still as good as it is that there's no more and. Less that you had once lived I think it shows a therapist 3 which is the that's the.

[00:58:01]
Close 4 or what is this correspondent that was formed in this morning is that you need to and know this is a law solution because it is I want to say that this is our. This is the exactly like you story and now you for much Bernie Hobbs versus.

[00:58:19]
What a little. X x Prine Well sorry I thought Alex stated at the statement of Ok. I mean I think a little bit of. Confusion probability yes yes you got you know if the signer said fertile like if it's like a human mark of a model that says that you know the end of the Markovian is your legs and coverage of the states at all to one house for each state yes you know exactly yeah.

[00:58:56]
And that 11 you didn't. Know the. Equation 11 you have to sell them the new and the same I guess they can show the. Ok so you're saying this is no longer called the likelihood of yeah it's not a very accurate on. Its grips on the yeah love quantity or the.

[00:59:23]
Like it well if you this and this and then a comma optimization problem. And then you're not with requests and so what I'm afraid that if we fix new we don't let them in you know this is a complex and not in the lumber yard assume the to be exponential that's not a complex problem but it's needed to prove or if you have a new here no it's not necessarily the context of the you know interested push into the culture it's exponent of the expression or something the new is a baseline and a video is on you have there are found to be.

[01:00:01]
To. Them for not alluring money to mental patients is a view to. Other. It looks pretty familiar Good all right so sorry for you know as a lover question but I think it's really helpful and some others ask is it possible to share the slice. Of the flight.

[01:00:28]
You have from a constrained only if I mean what are the. There's one paper a plane is not a very well because it's here you have. Both of them in the inside. With what you can really doing I have a good one other a present to really to start a flight I can try but it's very hard to have that ended in the future for a.

[01:00:50]
Company this is the intellectual I'm not a one woman sample into the I can really only money like a national park yeah yes it is something I might be able to do but I still needed to kind of people that when he spoke with. That animal thank you so much All right let's see if there's no further questions I think we are just in one hour it's a tiny thing so Dr Rachel for a very very interesting talk a very exciting topic again there in the middle of the nation thank you very much and thank all the participants called audience for the boy questions thank you very much.