Dr Spencer is an academic professional in
the school of biology where she teaches

biological principles math bottles and
biology genetics and college and Chrissy

also serves as the academic advisor to
order the biology majors and minors and

serves as faculty advisor to the Georgia
Tech reduction Area Medical Association.

She is also a summer
professional soprano and

feel that they've got this to Atlanta area
and songful such as I call the practice

the Atlanta School of the complex school
of safeguards Atlanta and performs next

month in the Atlanta comet office annual
production of the play of care or read

creation of the twelfth century literature
drawn up from the Florida playbook and

there are postcards are advertising
that back over open table there as well.

I feel like I'm really out of place here
because I'm a biologist but I didn't

I didn't come to biology by way of
thinking I wanted to do because when I

was undergraduate and I believe discovered
that that was not the right place for

me to be and I didn't like to be and
I didn't I wanted to get up and

do stuff and Houston so
we had about the not so

the idea for what I want to talk about
today which is a way between biological

warfare very dangerous practice and modern

a little frequencies
that is more of the gene.

Type of the gene that appears in certain
populations in common not very but

you know the link between these two
things has been composed that in the last

ten to fifteen years in the literature is
be really strong powerful connection that

you can make between jerkier
in the first eight hundred

lightly sweet and
the rise of this particular that has.

Certain you zoom audiences know that for
again so

it doesn't work again and then two days
resistors of certain people into each I.V.

So this is a long string of
connected ideas or I'm going to

pose it as a series of hypotheses and
the hypotheses go like this and

the reason I say that regard the blacked
out talk will be all of these life and

its impact on modern European populations.

So I've got a five step sack.

I come here and some of these have
better support than others to use it for

something that our city did that
when I was a poll worker at this

season in thirty forty five years reduce
the Black Death in to southern Europe.

The first part of the Skirball we're going
to tell you about what hominids need to

cough up the rest of this is going to be
something we're talking about the second

event of life that spread from southern
to Northern Europe fairly rapidly and

that's true that out of the back of
the third the black guy actually not funny

flavor always thought it was but with that
said I think you're right if you like

people very well up next
got the Black Death

selected for that is to hire
anybody to serve the people and

your legal teams that is the true
this is the name of the village C C R

five is G P of the elliptical
Delta thirty's differently

and that conferred disease
resistance to laughter and finally

that now there's a leaderless around
here and I agree with you on population.

If you tools that have this and you don't
actually have resistance a type B. and

this one is true.

So there's definitely been a lot.

You have that we know are right but
there's other things that

are very suspect there are going
to focus again on one true.

You for starting with the idea that

biological warfare disease
problems did happen.

I'm somehow going to split
up into southern Europe.

So to give us a little bit
of history on was born here.

This is very tricky to write but
quite I think hundred B.C.

was illness very season and
we've got forty two.

Well waters with huge bodies in the lung
fifty five Tartar fourth capital.

Bodies of playing victims over the years

now the Ukraine and songs of yours are
homeless something that happened for sure

and I think I'm going to ask this
one to the out right answer.

Part of the way over here I don't actually
know where I live where they are not like

Cecil very very far distant from once
why not in Europe and what is going on.

Cause why is this here how those
Actually I can tell you city.

We're here because it
was an Italian outpost.

That was a trading city along the route
that lot of the time River area here and

that time the Italians had a further
treason or further one and this is our

area that was hold on by the time of

the gold because it will
be called as an annex and

so this whole region was told by them and
be allowed to be a time there and

you know sometimes it's higher and
the next year.

Very unwell as a couple is
constantly under siege to

be under siege under siege and that if you
don't take care of you under siege and

you tell you first and
then they came back with us and.

By the time we get to the thirty's
forty's the city's part of the eleven

thousand people to walls and Europe and

the poor it is always
accessible might buy water and

land part of the future by phone or
by road is not always successful

healing as I have become is dealing with
so whether the Mongols R.C.T. the city or

so I just don't have the slightest
review so there's a whole series

of events that happened to come
where the anti-consumer vicar and

me leave me come back on and the one where
God is on his What's going on right here.

So good that he was using the first
forty three for a yearly fourteen oz and

the Italian they can always bring
in food because they will afford

to bring it up really and
it altering it really forces and

it brought it awfully forces to destroy
the Mongol army in thirty forty four and

saw the broken front and the very next
to final Army post back this year

the black stuff that's in only
army base outside the annex.

So there's no it's not
a high business account but

a contemporary account from
the Italian general do wrote

all about what happened this
week right here among the armies

are dying by thousands from
the Black Death and stars.

You see there in the name of God
on a very inauspicious plate

kind of statement of what's going
on out in the World Series.

You started as I was going
to be a longer child so

see how far you get you start by saying
I see how they view the entire races.

We're going together from all sides son
leave us to the sea and you see the track.

Christians there for
almost three years now.

First this is from the perspective of
the Christian Union only very candid in

my opinion and his party the party drama.

Although to be shipped and which offers
some but the whole the whole army

was affected by a tizzy over it and
harder and Bill Nelson's every day.

So in a very rapid death
rate in the seating

army just get a little bit now talks
a little bit about the symptoms that they

were having which he was swelling in the
hard headed growling caused by coagulating

humors followed by putrid
in their diet markers

lost interest in the sea but they ordered
curses to the place in town halls and

locked into the city and come back in
total stench with kill everyone inside

what seemed like mountains on
Debra's road into the city and

the Christians could not hide or flee or
escape that although they jumped as many

bodies they could into the sea so
into the air.

What is in the water supply and cetera and
the last statement is the one that

really has caught the modern scholars of
interest because he says as it happened

on one of those who escaped from five over
a few sailors who had being infected with

the poisonous disease and then they go
home and help with their friends and

family and all of the sudden there's
life just pandemic in Europe and

this is the only eat documentation
translation obviously document that's

allowing all that to happen so
intriguing is that exactly how

your question I first spoke he says
households dollars are telling us that all

of it can end in how the whole thing
cannot hold more bodies and later started.

I don't know a lot of
doctors years five years ago.

I believe the scholars think there
actually were literally sick days instead.

You can have your pillows and
how come you look into

your you feet privacy for a huge area of
the time but of course that's not what

I'm really focusing on think about what's
actually going on in your eyes here yet

another Mathis Show is actually very
similar to a we have before we get here.

Ha ha but this is not this is
showing you with years and months.

We are the box office
found at one time for a so

small so hot it is thirty
forty five Constantinople and

thirty forty seven ounces my first
Alexandria and thirty forty seven for

the forty eight and then over again say
the European continent thirteen forty

seven years before you even have
a car on January first before he

can reverse before he holds band
right here on the Eurostar for

one thing that's so
pretty quick spread and in fact

the spread on the other after the show
goes up all the way into northern Europe.

Very quickly within three years
receives them it's disease spread.

All right.
Self.

Biological Warfare get out of the seizure
cough evidence can be translated argument

but it gets very contentious
whether it's possible that

one group of soldiers leave the city and
one invent would have cars

that kind of spread in the rafters spread
the disease of quickly in Europe for

the last and is also not heard of
that the like to actually originated

in that region of top of the meat
actually come from our stats and

that's all very contentious that link
is really in this particular string of

hypotheses look at this bread rapidly
into Europe though we're not going

to talk much about number two except
to say that the rate of spread is

way faster than we would expect for
a particularly good history.

So here it really is what happens for
everybody played cards right.

I orgasmed called your
city of Texas bacteria and

you have a life cycle that can stop you.

While populations are uprooted and
transmitted between those hurdles life.

Please and rock concert her dogs here can
also be proud because of the mice will eat

foam will do and other mammals
very well that's a good enough.

Topping the nice to hit animals being
infected if the leaves are transmitted

from wild to live in domestic news now and

then those least can be
transferred from the flea is but

here you are the transfers of between
individuals who transmitted from a living

example to a human I can also how this
happened for rats me being there.

The carrier to be transferred
from their US to humans and

to see that in historical This is a place
where there is what's called breath

all the rest kind of diving area.

Please leave all the rocks and you never
back to the living humans because so

that's your city.

You know and when you stand off plate
today look at some modern history.

What happened to me.

These are there are regions
where we see life.

Now we have an ability to fight this
now because we have an Iyonix force

they didn't have in their leaders and
so you're not seeing any instances

of in local first world countries here but

there are some and
if you happen where where plague really

can go I know tends to be in there and
that's been the talk of the commons and

that is a pretty good
system of defining plague.

So it's not really
a temperate north turn right

and I was actually quickly that

at the time that we're talking about
starting at thirteen fifty and for.

For the next three to four hundred
years Europe went through what's

called the Little Ice Age where
the temperatures were lower in Europe and

so it is even more cold temperatures like
what you think of Britain in the winter.

Now of all time in
Europe during that time.

So that's interesting news out there.

This is also a sort of the cycle
is not really the side.

Even now the U.S. is always concerned
about what's what's bioterrorism what's

the next bioterrorism thing that's out
there and so every possible to seize or

anything that could be used as
a fire terrorism weapon has been

considered by the C.D.C. and there are
papers published on these how they could

be used as a weapon and here is that
pollution from the heat your say on paper

in terms of the perceived current threat
to us by a lot of playing out of my

logical and those like you for trucks
sometimes going to your car chest pain.

I have no good you know what six days
after suppose you're so pretty quick.

Within two to four days
after the symptoms onset

patient to go into septic shock and
or college your risk is very high for

this particular these particular
treatment and then of course it

talks about treatment for this treatment
at least that's in the thirty five years.

So that's sort of looking at now in terms
of what the public manifests in patients.

So they have got a good want to play for
cigarette or play.

We are going to get your into your
argument a pair of researchers new

Duncan Scott who are both biologists and
medical type

biologists and they have this idea
that last death wasn't actually a play

actually something more going to involve
that they're going to hold a grudge and

life as for viral tragic figure.

So this is news just a side by side
comparison of what you would expect to

see in terms of senators nowadays
really two different things and

he didn't talk here are either by
place he died after thirty six days

in Harajuku plagues one to three
days of really fast onset and

out at eight percent can
recover from the bottom

plague you ever find a good exact
percentage because I believe her.

Given the population mortality from
the Harajuku place seems to be

one hundred percent.

The way that it spread
is not a good thing.

So I mentioned in that you're saying your
life cycle leak is the thing that carries

the place from person to person until you
get to a stage where the lungs are so

infected that droplets from coughing
are actually very late in coming.

But that's a pretty small
minority of late arriving

late on the Internet is definitely
infectious from person to person.

There's a lovely sense of the about there
and out of the other one to think about

is the group of five like here it says
these are very nice to use these days.

This is interesting that
this is erratically.

We have a longer information period
although I don't have a number on it.

So let's think about what that information
for you might be these day care.

Researchers went back into
parish records again once for

a couple of the city areas and
try to pull out based on this.

So there was an easier test for

the site every person who died of plague
that you are and they try to go back and

pull out all those your legs whichever one
they were sick when did they try to do

you don't get rich and try to get some
epidemiological information on what's

actually going on in your life that and
they came up with a calculation that

in those two towns where these
they're from actually thirty two D.

information period from for
the last month done right

now we don't really know what it is any
other thing they came up with it is ten.

Not to be transmitted with her name and
it was transmitted on Twitter.

I would have Richard called
me you expected her to do so

if I'm sick of the Free of people sick.

You know you have time and that is good in

that you have to be logical terms all the
arses you're up to see so that's great.

Or one of the season's ready and
that's what you got there.

OK So there's some background
information on those two days.

And if you go back and
look back over your data that they

have been awful together actually look
more like the some of the stuff that has

mattered to you very strongly that love
doesn't actually never acted like they're

not uncontested though the literature
with that particular statement and

they created a mathematical
model of this sucker is that

data from one of the few times they looked
at this is from Newcastle upon Tyne and

I played it sixteen thirty six for
the day and so here is a weekly

play down and it leaks out from
the epidemic starts it starts here.

That's a look at a high rise or
is right if I go out and

he says this layoff and another then it
dies off very typical what we see from

the difference in terms of
categorizing us no crash.

It's only a model that Andy did
a terrible job of publishing also I think

distraction.

It all with what they came up with so
that it matches the axes here of does and

it turns out it actually matches
perfectly but you never know when you.

You know you're going to publish a paper.

So they come out as a scenario and

there's something they have to put into
their politics we have to assume things

are really the models
are getting thirty two days.

I think invasion and
that spread is three infected.

So that matches the horizon data and
not the life.

You bought it.

Data just thought it interesting.

So they feel like they've got it.

So for them.

But it's a little bit contested it's more
a little bit us and there's quite a few

people who disagree with me on this the
best one one set of data that was a model

for the kind of looking towards that
hypothesis the final thing I want to think

about for his house yard is what's going
on of this particular gene and I'm going

to take you into the realm of science and
start to take you to biology here.

That wasn't too scary would be good enough
to see spreading disease Monley But

this is potentially going
to be a lot scarier.

So I'm going to get it.

I want you to go.

So first of all of what is this gene
that I'm talking about the genus

code like you know traffic.

So I don't kind of you know kind
receptor that this is a respect or

there's a there's a cell.

This is a white blood cell my
perfect in your immune system and

on the surface of your cell
in the surface of the cell.

There's all these proteins and
the proteins are different things.

This particular protein
calls other cells to come.

You see the chemicals the chemical
taxes even tactic and

that is the idea of the cytokine
this is the Santa cell signal or

so I'm so
that as I say it's a signal that's just

indicating to other cells to do something
in the spaces to come here come here and

that receptor is here on the surface
of her face also located on the other

on the other hand yourself that we have
an aggregate is one hundred years and

injunction where other proteins
disparate proteins that are shown here.

Things like a virus like a type
he can actually get into your you

cell and this is what he
said he does is why it's so

hard to fight it opens the door
using his hell of a lot.

He says and the fines on to tease and
finds itself into the cell and

then your immune system so you're stuck.

You're going to get something that's taken
over your immune system that's the problem

with a tidy.

Well it turns.

Alan that is this particular receptor
is missing a piece twenty bass carillon

There are called thirty
two Delta deletion so

I'm missing a piece of it
then they can follow and

that means that a Saudi has come
into the cell so canceling or so

individuals that have this mutation that
kind of in their visas and those are great

actually do way better with a techie when
it is mutation our eyes a long long time

ago we don't actually know when to
increase in frequency in Europe.

It seems like I mean I think
the Street middle ages.

Another thing he's think about and
look at the data

that's how this works question is
why because certainly a study is

not what causes that deal to be higher for
it but they say he's a strong selection

of something on the strong selection
that he will rise every month and

in fact here is the distribution
over the frequency is high for

the a little bit darker just by the more
people have to like fourteen percent.

So it's not universal body but
a lot more people here and

these white areas hard enough.

So this is not I'm not the only thing
that's going to hurt the coconuts up here.

So if it's white and those are looking
at the needle individuals to those areas

not the European immigrants that have
moved into a lot of those areas so

notice that there's a really
strong focus in Europe but

northern Europe not Southern Europe
where the plague started or

was it done but
are your words friends to you.

So here's the way this is
your five Tell thirty two.

You could have a freestanding treatment.

It could not.

I think on about a five you know wait a
few years certainly helps with results as

a society but he's happy that it's
up to him and has since the one

thousand nine hundred ninety way too
late to have written raises frequently.

I can defend your city of
Kandahar by Nick Clegg and I But

the interesting thing here and
this is what I didn't say before.

Is there is no mechanism for

it he said you're sending us
to interact with C.C.R. five.

So those two things.

There's just no reason
why that would happen and

I would never see that interaction and
certainly the presence of his yard

doesn't help your standing up and
the absence of it doesn't hinders you.

So those two things are you're
a leader on the other hand to play as

models for this working and
also model to get to be the case

and that was something that was
around at the right time in history.

But next we have got to get the smallpox
not smallpox never going to pandemic see

locked up pandemic of
Europe Africa much of the much of

Africa has to be so huge huge world
problem people dying fast and

lovely small pox living it was always
localized wherever it happened.

But it kept hitting over and
over and over and over again and

ultimately more people die
from smallpox like that.

You know.

And so you know each episode is a leak or

selection of them to
increase the frequency.

It turns out that this particular little
does make you resistant smallpox or

that works out of your system and as long
as there was one continual selection.

Then there's a really good mathematical
model that shows that smallpox as it's

known in your eyes history could actually
have caused the everybody to be where it

is now four zero five thirty two
national bag of audience laugh

but it doesn't result lives work
comes around the same time and

I have this back to this five year.

So I've gone through these
are these my father sees this and

was we was good and where we would
like to see something happen.

So that.

This link between two seater caught and
is not spread by death and

Europe as will be played.

But who's not a whole lot of
mathematical evidence to look back and

see is it possible is a problem.

What happened to this very
strong evidence put out for

them to Black Plague not be likely but

they have rather think that
hypothesis lizard may support for

the idea that it is easy archive
doesn't vary to a legal that you for

that transferred disease resistant.

That's also process but
if possible party tomorrow is almost

every year and
finally it is very strongly.

After that you see our five dozen thirty
two thousand birds it says to use my feet.

So this whole chain of this is all
colored by only telling color coded all

the free the full chain of events is
probably not a very robust chain.

That's no longer the short of it but

there's some ways that we could
explore that a little that.

So at the beginning.

Kelly said that I teach a course
called Math models in biology.

I think every spring.

You have a two and
a half three people on infectious disease

unit within an hour or
so Bottle Of course.

And so you go the horses to
get biology majors to take all

their math skills that they have and first
as techs who may have that not skills but

actually do you think about biology
they're not going to be getting an over

the course of the semester we get to
the point where there are still more

comfortable pulling those That's a set of
skills together and mine math to biology.

So I think this brain I'm going to take
all of these ideas set of hypotheses and

have my students work through pick and
work your temperament consummating would

be most interesting to play with and you
saw the background of they have their own

models of the stuff I'm just saying.

Have a vodka and give the beer five to one
KELLY Yes Well what do you do that really

said to the people because I thought he'd
had a good break out there every year

then and I'm rather on a production
of two different places on the floor

a playbook that they call a play fair and
actually a combination of the player and

another player of the slaying of the
innocence but here it is a darker version

of the story but pretty powerful pretty or
it would never not work.