National fairest and it's my honor and
pleasure to welcome Professor

to Georgia Tech the Atlanta School
been a national affairs

board junkfood problem probably
just west of the river

city of one of China's most famous
beautiful cities famous for

its search of the canal gardens and
beautiful women

undergraduate work at Beijing University
international politics

received national politics
from Beijing University.

He's currently professor in the School
of International Studies at

Beijing University

rector.

He's also

just up the river from down there right.

Yes He's also a currently a visiting
fellow at the Brookings Institution

in Washington D.C.
He's the author of a number of books on

China's

China

for better or

to go right.

We thank you thank you thank you.

OK thanks professor cover
you invited me here.

It's chilly my big pressure.

I think China's today in the US and

you know world as well is a very nice but

there's quite a few professors like
Professor John cover his is so

you know knowledgeable insightful to
the China's foreign policy history.

And China skull and
you know the situation.

So I'm a very jealous to offer.

So then the jobs just to offer
a very great China Study Program

to off my friends Professor John
governor and the one failing.

Faculty Member here.

So my presentation.

Well through those three points first

a Point One is happening to China U.S.
relations.

What kind of things now lead
Joey some sort of a historical

comparison to in a change of our relations

second point just share as you is

what is at stake relations

in some sort of vulnerable
was shaky position or

why things now between Washington and
risk.

So.

And while away or
you know some sort of anxiety for

the relationship between washing
Beijing just you know being diffused.

And even reasonably just approached.

OK First of all I see that China U.S.
relations really really changed

to this year marked the surly
five years of the normalization.

So after normalize ation
said if after years past.

Then why make a difference for relations.

I can't easily figure out a couple
of the points of the ample

seventy five years ago.

What you know just the job
of our normalization.

For us.

The president Jimmy Carter too
in a brushed aside a lot of for

domestic anti-communist you know hatred.

And the deciding concluding
normalization with Beijing.

Then a couple of also it seemed to me
very tactically address the Taiwanese.

Normalizing relations were.

The president Jimmy Carter
very smartly adopt the.

Taiwan Relations Act
continuously committing

the United States to
Taiwan's Democrat Haitian and.

Once you know assistant to its traditional
I think the most important point.

To behind the Jimmy Carter's China
aspiration for

normalization is where have
a common enemy so very unique.

So that factor poor both sides much
beyond some sort of a difference

that time that difference is rarely
rarely HUGE see huge I say for them.

So what's a Chinese back to learn.

And of the seventies.

I think of quite a few Americans well
offer some sort of a full description.

China is Communist China Spring for
Mandarin China is isolated for long.

China's completely different culture.

But today Chinese Americans.

Where now it has a very well.

Right.

So we have a huge and a massive.

Fro ing of people.

So now it's China still
inside can't fall or fall

in students who are just as there
in learning in the United States.

So a better guest source of all
instance for Americans higher education

then in my university
Peking University Nanjing University and

the embers of American students
increase the very very rapidly.

So everywhere.

Cele American students.

So then common enemy relationship
back to city five years ago second.

It's some so
the low man took a feeling based

our you know perception
dominate our relations.

So Chinese anti
Soviet Union Chinese usury is

on the development of Chinese once a China
China's land China's size China's history.

So for the most of their view of China
sounds a little below the right.

So low manic.

So then the entire eighty's
described as some sort of way say

relations China become like the state.

Where got from Pentagon
where it's the Little Giant

server tare station to
monitor the Soviet Union.

That time the China's human rights issue
was much worse than time being as.

The little human rights concern to China.

But I think a second a change
since in one thousand nine hundred

of course it's a common enemy
to completely disappear.

So watch for some sinister new group
to people about size together.

Well so
have some sort of very essential elements.

To It gives them whilst some sort of
elements which is the getting as together.

First the way say it's some
sort of commercial utility

because reform and
opening up China is a bigger market.

So it a get a lot you know.

American spirit is people
find a lot of opportunity

investing manufacturing and
doing the business in China.

So then our live figure of our
training valorise reli hiking.

Believable I think in one
thousand seven in the.

Trade in value is three point
six billion U.S. dollars today.

Back to two thousand and thirteen.

That's the trade imbalance
between two countries.

It's around the five hander the billet
US is number one export market for

China and when them astray trading
partner to the United States.

So such a way say from being of service
investment across the Pacific Ocean so

believable in the fantastically
growing stronger and the bigger.

So now we have a big
commercial connection.

Keep of both sides not just
the highly independent

more exactly where I have to say
our relations in terms of cotton.

In commerce where highly symbiotic

it is reality if trying
to buy some Santa warmer

than everybody and
maybe most made in China.

And even in China for
example just to get the Chinese university

students to feel very happy for
some sort of fashion Crow's brat.

It's a Paro it's some
sort of americans brand.

So they make very familiar.

So they can.

I'm a CLI Yes we're very very good.

That's a promise.

Now such an extraction of
economical relations is

getting soured because we
are compared to the easier.

So yes he's worried outsourcing for
the amp to China just lead

to a cat in us want

to just back some sort of
overseas manufacturing in

China now is pushing for the
internationalization of Chinese calendar.

Is that possible for China's become
some sort of leading rival and

where America is for U.S.
dollars in the water.

Callen C.

Center one that has also come up for them.

Market access intellectual
property rights protection and

some sort of way say eco trainmen
to their investors country.

I think a lot of debate I will
come over and there's a point.

So so follow that investment and
a commission or.

You know whack off national security.

So when we have the increase in
amber of such a commercial you know

the stresses of China's Telecom I calm

way once you invest in us
they was just the house

a very seriously restrained because for
the purpose of our national security.

If China also raises this ratio
of a national security to ban

American investment for
having then I have to say

commercial relations are legendarily it's
a strong group to get about psychos are.

Now is telling is some
sort of a new battlefield.

So then we also see commercial relations
His little bit turning some sort of sour.

We can't just simply believe commercial
relations as long as the getting

grow getting bigger and they're getting
more then our relations will be

well be destined to be stable and
the better.

So even you canonically or

a sense is getting competitive in
some sort of our way and that.

So then it's a second the biggest
change economic relations yes it's good

it is still very strong but the prominence
and while way as if fact our relations

in history is mostly positive but
now it's very complex.

And I said a war on this.

I think twenty years ago.

China's P.-O. a cab ability was just

a lack some sort of way say flies back.

It could be neglected.

Then fifteen years ago.

China says they have all
capability is some sort of.

BLOCK In their radar screen.

No American naval captain
take very seriously.

Today rarely rarely take
the chance naval capability.

More seriously.

So then it's a military
capability to have and.

Now is persuading for them.

Paul twenty years ago China once
used limits tricolor is driving

away a Philippines from
disputed the China Sea.

Then it did then the cause a lot of
a protest thing and a concern for

the United States in the past
thirteen years page in the ever

tried any military coercion
driving away all of Filipinos and

of being armies for disputed.

Sassed China Sea territory.

Why China Sea become a leading consent.

Yes present.

So if you listen when I say
that the talk of yesterday.

Is strongly I assure the American
to our arms us well never keep my

hand up if our alliance Welby attack.

That's a promise from
the Chinese past that.

And never see the China we tackle
a chip pan for taking back.

I will tell you a real.

But anyway.

Well so
see said military capability in German and

design now is Tom anything
sensual mood feeling both size.

So us not just the Tecla China more
seriously but also just the has

a strong anxiety probably China
well squeeze Lee us forced by.

In West the Pacific arena.

So sooner or later.

Both sides well Clive's So
China now is racing for

region No OK first Wesley
illusion of uncommon.

Sarratt our relations
has been long piccalilli

it's hard to Louis disagree
based then back to

the ninety's where we see a leading
factor behind the engage in China

policy on the Bill Clinton Administration
is is some sort of a commission.

Utility.

And now it's also getting you lose

its you load it greatly because
China is getting bigger.

So China U.S. commercial relations
yes it's a still mutually benefiting.

That's the promise some
how well a competitor.

Then you will move on to some sort of
a security field was the China U.S.

relations by definition
where strategic arrival.

OK thirty five years later some sort of
for your sense of elements to underscore.

The feasibility of
normalization completely gone.

Then a couple of very fundamental change
not just the jump over to a new high.

But also suddenly and
the very dramatically turning into a new.

OK A question is what's led China U.S.
relations where used to be enemy enemy.

Before the next one shot
in two thousand and

seven in one thousand
nine hundred eighty two.

Then where were very close
friends after normalization.

And even become law.

Where having ensured.

Then collapsed selfless over the union
some sort of a transition though

where say the Elizabeth the some sort of

relationship cooled down a lot
of people Kyra you alluded to

then say it turned to a reality.

So in time ninety's there
was a very hip to the bet

in the hot sun a better
debate about China policy.

So then.

Bill Clinton engage in China
become a leading component

of American station policy and
the China strategy as well.

I think there's such a change in China
policy usury based on a two very

interesting intellectual for
requests this one is.

Yes it should be less
afraid of rising China.

I remember very very vividly back to
in one thousand nine hundred five.

Professor Michael.

Oxenberg published leading articles

had a falling I fast outlying
he's a few of China's future.

Professor.

Oxenberg emphasized in he's

such a leading piece of falling off air
self in one thousand nine hundred five.

He said no worry about stronger or
power more power for China.

If we look at China's history.

Until China getting powerful
enough to challenge the U.S.

China also just the house
said tumbling down.

From the tips of their power mountain.

Well I mean the history of show.

China is always hard to escape out of some
sort of such historic home match wrecks.

China always just the house
rise becomes powerful

then entrapped into masking in
procession and tambourines out

then after the thousands of years
when your own kinder years in China.

Well again.

Then rising getting power for then again.

So Professor X.
number pick a very very central point.

A curling to China's history and
then China's real future damning.

China as a bigger power always being in
ten go the ways the mastic challengers.

Then their ability to said that their
mascot challenge has never been assured.

So before China could be in power for

you have to challenge the US
chant that's less legit to well.

Well report form that again outperformed
China some sort of international

behavior which well tag it in
the US I think this piece is great.

So I think it's very interesting what.

Their second the pre look
request is reform and

open China well eventually reshape

the China's the masses the mastic of
Skylon and China will become democratic.

Then Democratic in China.

Well be certainly last man a seen
China to reform an album that.

Well how we loot China's future and

the finally end to waste in
the collapse of a communist system.

So James Mann.

He published China fantasy
book three years ago.

He strongly power for the Such allergic.

But now I think a May we may have
a some sort of US exabyte nation was

the reprise that to rebase law
Americans successful policy of China.

How Us Can Change the channel.

How us can feel confortable
about more power for

China then where Kim picked up some so
interesting in allergic

rebalancing strategies that
mean us well maintained enough

minds and power and
us to reshape lead China's future.

Let me determine its online space
in some sort of power clouds.

Well be effective.

To reshape the China for its future.

That's also a big feasibility behind.

Rebalancing strategy.

OK this is strategy is
mostly rest on deterrence

maître determination ring has
millions of major airlines.

So now I have to see how

such a request that a certain
legit also Well technically facts.

So then that's my first point.

So the five years later China U.S.
relations dramatically changed

where moves through a couple
of the line in factors and

now wear face in some sort of new tipping
point where have to embrace them so

that for new Pollard dime to underscore
that you can do your rebel stab a lady and

a carp ration between the both countries
so rebalancing is not a just a strategy.

Re pivoting of Mekele US
pivot him away from it.

I'll use them to win him back to late.

But it seem to me it's some sort of a.

Very powerful description of Lanier legit

facing some sort of a rising China and
a growing.

Of China's behavior.

So this strategy is not just the material
arised some sort of a stranded terminus

visibly China and I was so very interested
only outlined the same sort of a new

behind you know your
factual policy of China.

Second I have to say.

Well the China U.S.
relation become some sort of a stretch.

You write about how China respond.

There's a lot of hyper sacked
really just the phone in them.

Paul just point to some sort of China's.

Historical turn of our foreign policies.

And as someone also described.

Recent years.

China's foreign policy
presents some sort of but

I D N A change in the an age
change mean traditionally

Asians policy this way or
I implode profile and

China tend to more as and
even more aggressive.

So China's international behavior
in terms of a pattern and

the modes a completely changed.

I have to say I disagree with this
some sort of basic and Sampson.

No I don't think China's foreign
policy completely changed.

Yes China now.

I agree that China's foreign
policy is going more as a battle

of problems while in China foreign
policy go you more as I think

it's some sort of when I say
move to change the consequence.

It's not a grand strategic
change the classic.

What was the reason is China
now is a bigger power.

So China's as that is the spontaneous

flood China square power
status when you get in bigger.

Carrying power for then you are still
just a stellar same it's hard

international relations social life were
always lived very decent in a calm parts.

Costs May But
the problem is when you're getting

some sort of a successful
when you're getting bigger.

Not so many people can still just the act
of very decently and equates fully.

I think it's very consensual
social phenomenon.

I think that China in that case China.

I have to say maybe it's
a very bad matter for

I have to say my country
now is a pound gorilla.

When it's walking through
a forest always make a bad.

So don't take any bans made by China
as some sort of evidence of this.

Let me give you a ling
the apple the South China Sea.

Now US How much are some sort of alerts
overload China's risk taking behavior.

Back can assure you completely and
don't think that China well puncture

or take down a Filipino
whatever how fear is an emotion

our frictions over disputed
are telling reason very simple.

So we are very asked
Samaj co-write if legit.

Turning Filipino something amiss
into the ground and again the need.

Well feel part of this.

So the mask at the Bay about
China's policy of in the US

is seem to me this goes to very sobering.

Media as nationalistic a climate
very interesting only contrast in

some sort of west US soberly mainstream
in a policy foreign policy debate.

So we needed to let their friends
China now is in transition the C.P.C.

need is some sort of a nationalist
the clamor to justify the losing

legitimacy lib a change
foreign policy course

completely straight off because
we're still have no way

to swing to some sort of risk
because taking foreign policy.

Really is simple first.

The mask a preoccupation with
an ass whipping factor for

a chance leader will have could have
a lot of debate for you for that right.

For example she jumping came to power.

He variances asked as take Lee in
moderate anti crapshoot campaign.

He was bringing the change to
China that the most important and

the design to change is the mastic.

Rising International.

About ways that China's to some sort of

such a finish that the mask
of transformation.

The sense of insecurity is always
a haunting factor for China's leaders.

So they always have to
just a struggling for

some sort of rhythm a sea for
their policy initiative.

So international relations unfortunately
become genuinely And exactly.

And nationalistic a domain so
no leader wants to be

one to be conceivably
some sort of a chicken.

So retard Clee and the literally.

Their words make themselves.

Sounds very firm resolve very firm but
just

say we needed to know what to make clear
difference between America and a reaction.

Second the evidence I
want to give you is that

given the China screwing in France and
the rise in power

the international response to
China is also getting extremely

vulnerable and a fragile then what I see.

I also see a lot of overstate

overstatement of let China for
example Japanese always keep.

You know just the murmuring China
where attackers sank a human.

Yesterday President Obama was
challenged by Japanese journalist

the journalists ask him
a very basic question.

You know flood China
tactless Senkaku Islands.

How can you guess the response.

Press and
return the way is better or smarter.

Because why pennies always just
to have have such a you mad.

Generally you know less thinking
it's also some sort of pallor noise

is thinking about a pack coming
China attacked that letter sent.

It's a testing ground for
Chinese nationalism.

It's also tasting point of for
the new leaders some sort of resolve

to safeguard the China sovereignties But
behind that process.

It's not only inhabited islands rock.

What's the China Japan.

Well number two number
three biggest economies

you think away rarely well take that
seriously to resort to the Miter

mean five you know was just
over some sort of rocks.

It's a conventional Western.

Yes Chinese people and a government.

Nationalism.

But I don't think there
would be that crazy.

To really take the military conflict

the Japanese So my view is that be easy.

China is a rational acted rightly so.

China's leader Xi Jinping in the lead.

Then nationalistic politician necessarily
there are so programmatic to lead.

That's also some sort
of a very matching map.

Magic combination of
China's Foreign Relations.

We needed to tell
the difference from some sort

of a nationalistic where say covering
China's foreign policy always been

very very rarely polled
by nationalism where so

needed to know some sort of nuance that
difference because at a lot colder.

It's still lingering
programmatic that it's not just

the House say the mascot preoccupation
Joven on the other hand.

That's what I want a field that will be
released about our relations no matter.

It is stretching a rival as it is some
sort of west of farming of a competitor

Sri factors keep our relations very
structurally constrained first.

This parity remain between
Washington Beijing.

Tennis and
they be getting bigger very nascent

I don't think where and their position
to challenge the Americans Navy

way just to add to the maximum
exercise some so the media see.

Attorney as.

We don't want to let us just

completely isolate China from
some sort of a maritime access.

Well so
want just to respond in a way as China can

to some sort of futures Frash point for
them then sank.

If Penny's taken a further provocation.

It's right.

Japan who are you.

When the China were at
the center could they ARE YOU.

We are so worried if alert
Japanese Texans are real and

concrete actions and overtaken islands.

It will force the China to respond.

Then based on one's commitment U.S.

also well into being such
a was the case scenario.

Well magnify some sort of the Chinese fear

if legit pay unilaterally
doing the same symbol.

How can we respond.

So I have to say yes I won they will and

force cabin billeted
building is reinforced fast

it's mainly targeting some
sort of West End near sea.

So it's China's Navy remember from
some sort of competing with the U.S.

Americans regional preponderous.

Never being getting getting what Getting I

have to say attainable just
that due to a factor of China.

Now U.S.
is repeal a minus from rising China

because most of region momentum
has really feel pressured.

So then once the poor to John's together.

So it's insecurity most of really
the member now is decisively lean into

all the US.

Reposition themselves.

Now us a feel very comfortable.

They are taking advantage of the flesh
shock hand of China's Foreign Relations.

When we're getting bigger.

China's Farnum relations
is really our way.

Some sort of a China's growing in for
us that really is very simple.

My Siri is China remain to
be Adelaide some power.

China is not very much.

True or power.

So where make up a lot of a mass.

So.

And there's a point I have to say is this.

Even psychologically.

I don't think that China now is getting
some sort of pissed off and where.

Well I have to just say computer
us by flexing the muscle.

That Cantillon China dilemma
of Chinese students.

Generation after generation.

China's young people coming
to studying in the U.S.

what you're University charge
Emory University's gray one.

You had to charge is unbelievable.

It's more than fifty thousand
dollars per school year right.

You know what's my university
in charge of picking universe.

Top university in China.

Every school year on the graduates
the tuition charge is

less than two thousand
dollars a level U.S.

I hired to Americanise université
college which in charge

is so high so expensive.

But even was this look at the Chinese

how many Chinese now learning
studying in the U.S.

all kinds of first students
primary students school students

high school university college
students more than one card a billion.

Second of assisted us
US India the name of our

Chinese students is five time in the US.

If you are a university or

college who will like to Lola's
threshold awful admission.

I have to tell you in the end
of China students were quickly

surpassed half a million.

In the Chinese young
students come into the US.

Bring Where's their families in a saving.

After five four years five years or
seven years they then

got to the diplomatic game back
where they where they come.

Where is back to China American idea.

So that I have to say it's a very
very important structural constraint.

Us now is a lot of ways a suppress

over idea and the man say into pro in.

You have a lead in sauce.

We mean the Chinese young generation.

You have breathing space.

To Crazy some sort of Chinese sauce.

It's in my eyes.

It's a big constraint.

OK So the one is.

Well so
see some sort of an ember of alarms.

If China us get into the conflict.

There's a long list on American
side very very shy less

the Chinese I have to say
it's a very very important

complimentary to the U.S. It's a big
a supplement to your power positions.

Then it's also and
there's a structure opposed to China.

So I haven't seen some sort of
way say dramatic a power transfer

now is on the way there
is some sort of slightly

away say a project to
the power shift as a whole

transition remain and
I'm fading remain very faded.

OK let me come to my conclusion.

How can we respond first I have to say.

We needed to just and

that's just a cool down we needs
a realist Allee realistically just

who is some sort of a new reality
of a central rival relationships.

International relations is that the job.

China's getting bigger.

Given the China's size and the history.

I tell a most China is corporator China
will never be seen this year for.

Lower to us.

Such a historical matter
X X sense to everybody.

If we lived at modernization and
westernize ation.

In the past the one hand is there
many years where you see and

good name followers.

Japan call in some
countries big allies Asia.

There are ways to tell a maximun
is corporator China India.

So don't cant don't conflict China into

some sort of such a very you know for
hard to follow or.

Just Korea and
in Japan even India is less than

in the openly supports Moscow for
an access.

Crimea.

You can imagine why India want do that.

Because in there.

Want to project.

Its uniqueness in a power position.

Second I think a way need some sort of

way say reasonable and

even visionary states man for

their China shouldn't just over rich

now or be very risky and then dress.

If we want to see expanding
our of China's legal rich.

By us don't need over react.

So futures to relations based
Serco of action and reactions.

If full of both sides could
exercise some sort of restraint or

ration is where we good last one.

I think a way needed to nuanced.

Some sort of difference now just
sitting between the both countries

most important difference is not some
sort of a strategy clearly where

actually moving closer to
the collision leading to

friends challenging them both sides full
of time being is the mask of politics.

She Jim ping Neither some soften
nationalistic follow relations.

Now look at the United States you have
emerged three is suffer from segregation.

The fan Scott budget cuts.

So you need a China as a farmer about
Challenger and competitor to justify

you know the red pressing
of cut the military budget.

They interest the group.

Then some sort of
contending domestic agenda.

So since.

Rather than strategic
goal turn in wrong or

seems to lead that is
redefining our agenda.

So most uncertainty came
from the mask a part tax

rises in strategic we adjustment or
recall ablation.

Let me stop here Joe thank you

thank you.

Just.

Now.

OK OK Yeah I think it's
a very good question.

First of all you for a look at
the first order of the strategy or

the military options yes I see in
the eyes of a side or lack to fight.

I think is this reality
is almost a predictable.

Second order of facts that the mask
of factors then where was he.

Some sort of tension will linger.

The reason is for them.

Profanity Chinese perspective.

Yes we can show some sort of
in fracs ability bad such

as China's fracs ability also should be
conditioned by some sort of reciprocating

move from Japan for them.

Pope.
So

far Japan continued to refuse to recognize
the existence of a tatto dispute.

But consider some sort of Japan's calk e.

And you know elements in the policy.

So it's particularly
irritating to Chinese So

then the China Spartan line is
that of Japan's recognition of

existence disputes no set a back then for
Japan.

They also feel it's a very
a pile of docs a cold question.

They consider if they
recognize this TED talk

business appears existing
in China may well.

Inflexible and it become more intrusive.

So then my view is that so far both size
match hijacked by a to mask of factors.

So then what kind of
option we can work out.

I think first of all both
sides needed to talk.

So I strongly opposed to
some sort of way say.

To name back policy.

So far protocol contacts rarely
rarely are the cat and no matter how

tense relationship is we need to talk
we needed this patch lame boy we need

you know just to deliver some sort
of massacres in a way very serious.

So first of all I read both
sides could realistically

you know Hendo the relationship.

Get into both siding
contact is very important.

The second thing.

Chinese and Japanese way should
have some sort of a ground running

around the bar in English to
the ground the compromising for

them pull sense of who is
part of history probably

continue to visit the last time I don't
think there will be any proper climate

where the settlement is.

So then China Japan
relations very complicated.

Or such a conflict thing is use and
related.

So we need a some sort of a way to move

in the monolithically into some
sort of a positive direction.

So when needed.

There.
Reconciliation process

or question like like

he's like us or like

three years early last year or

we were just about domestic
politics as he said a lot like

a good question and

I think a professor Garber as much red
as a meteor on such a question but

my impression that this
had to lead China's

match into South say.

Africa and Latin America and
they have either logical.

Well just a very mercantile lest.

So China's a COBOL engagement so
far is very mercantile lust.

So why has no interest in Iraq is whenever

considered is the pollen POS had to
buy a can says that troublemaker.

So.

You know Philip bass there's
some sort of such a communist

way didn't do anything when considers
they are completely disruption

some sort of process that's.

So there's no connection at all.

You may be a New Guinea.

There is some sort of approach
China communist alike communist

way say rebellion by Chinese
government fell very.

You know some sort of expanding in France.

So today's China.

I think is completely
different from Maoist China.

So some sort of essential
pattern of let China.

Perceive the national interest
is a fundamentally changed.

So where one extend any support
to such a rebellion force.

Is that they consider their trouble
because Beijing one inveighs the mining.

Such a great.

Well how strata anywhere can.