Well thank you for
coming to the SAC event which

Scott said Bible school are for
secure regional planning.

And I'm ready for
the right to see a few here.

Despite the late hour and gives me great
pleasure to welcome you to this event.

I mean perhaps the if you will move
up as the director of Center for

G.I.S. but today.

I have fifty and

that being a colleague
Professor Brian Stone.

Records being recognized today and
has been recognized for.

Over the boss came in His glory.

Right now.

Let me ask you how many refused to

OP last night watching
the election results come true.

So I didn't get back till about two am and
back.

The reason I'm asking
that question is because

I could not have held this
event on a better day.

At a historic moment after a very long and

can choose campaign and
in a campaign where

climate change has not
feature very prominent right.

None of the candidates were speaking about
climate change in any significant way.

But we were reminded that this is and
left an issue for

our future when we were
hit by Hurricane Sandy.

And.

A couple of lessons that we can
draw from Hurricane Sandy and

those are critical lessons for today's.

Which puts a context to today's lecture

that the damage from such events.

So.

The damage is very high.

It's about twenty billion dollars right.

So it's very important to be prepared for
these events and

the second lesson that we
can draw from this is that

we actually have very good knowledge.

To predict where these
storms are going to hit.

In fact if you have followed.

A project in the path of the storm.

It was incredibly accurate
in terms of the path it has

taken so we can actually see.

A lot of certainty that our sawin
systems are fairly adequate and

we have faith in.

What our scientists are telling
us about climate change.

So let me tell you a little
bit about the book which.

I happen to read because it is.

I don't know how many read this page.

To my wife who read.

And she read.

The first couple of chapters and
described.

That.

It is fast paced and action packed.

So.

If you.

To get a hold of the book now is the time
and they have several copies outside.

So Professor Stone.

If you know him is the director
of urban climate lab at

Georgia Tech School of city and
regional planning.

His program of research
on the spatial drivers of

environmental phenomena with an emphasis
on air quality and climate change.

He has been supported to funding from
the National Institutes of Health the U.S.

Environmental Protection Agency and
the U.S.

Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention.

Among other funding institutions prior
to joining the Georgia Tech faculty.

He taught in the department of regional
planning at the University of Wisconsin

in Madison.

Dr storms urbanization and climate change
recently has been featured on C.N.N.

National Public Radio and
in print media outlets such as and

USA Today his degrees
are an environmental management and

planning from university and from our.

School.

Of technology so
without further ado that brain.

Dr Stone to deliver this important.

And I know it's hard to hear
every one of the audience.

My assumption is that.

So people are so.

Force.

So the last time I gave advertise talk.

My Ph D. Committee.

There's a lot of anxiety when I when I.

When I come to these events and

as I'm hoping that out
the average vision after this.

I'm hoping that I have significant
changes to the questions.

But Iran Iraq by.

Highlighting the significance
of the moment that we're in.

Not just the political contacts
not just but with what's happening

around us and thinking about climate
change the global scale and how

our global phenomenon are driving things
around us but first there's another story.

What's occurring at the local scale the
scale cities and so that's where my focus

will be tonight that's my focus is in
the book so that the structure fires.

This basic structure focus first on

climate change and how that anomaly is
different when we talk about the scale and

how it's different when we think about
it at the local scale then there's this

question about risk about
whether we are properly.

Assigning.

Risk to the manager with
the threat assessment of

climate change that plays out
again both at a global scale and

a local scale of cities and
then have the response should be.

Particularly.

At the urban scale so anomaly.

From where the standard or
expected this has a very specific.

In the world of climate science.

And that is straight here in terms
of the temperature trends for

the plant as a whole and so when we think
about temperature trends we don't just

measure this just purely in terms of
temperature we think about it in terms of

deviations from a long term average And
so this is here the Syrian army line

is Iran time baseline against which we
measure change and that specifically

appear time for the one nine hundred fifty
to the one nine hundred eighty S. so.

This is average global temperatures
of about thirty year period and

then we look at deviations year.

From that long term trend and we see
this very characteristic increase and

that is climate scientists have been for
number of reasons.

It's a pretty significant
increase over time and

it's happening in a very
compressed time we think about.

Climate over over many decades and
hundreds of years.

This is a very quick trend were out about
this isn't present give us a lot of

information that's useful for cities and
for people in cities in them.

The reason for that is that this
is essentially designed to be

a measurement of how
rapidly areas around them.

Advertise that way.

Best to read plays out.

This is based on a mash network.

Weather Stations.

Service weather stations and most of
those weather stations are urban areas.

Not surprisingly they're they're used for
reasons for having weather stations in

cities and so if we rely on that
network without addressing it.

We're going to have a bias climate.

Been areas and climates and

I'll be talking about how they do that and
why it's important that to make sure that

the urban temperature temperature record
isn't influencing the grabby record

excessively statistical adjustments
are made to urban weather station data and

so essentially what we have is
a temperature record that's been

modified to represent temperature outside
of cities and so if you're a male.

For example and you really about how
rapidly your city is warming and

how rapidly it's likely to
continue on in the future.

This would not be a very good proxy for
you.

Because I have been eliminated
from the data set and so

I guess I'm an anomaly.

When a person is problematic is the
extremity of the trend already where we

sit today in excess.

Hundreds of years of temperature data and

then we project this based on
understanding of the global greenhouse

effect rising concentrations
of greenhouse gases.

Extent to which temperatures
are rising is pretty dramatic.

Even if even in the rarest scenarios
the most optimistic scenarios.

Increasing dramatically over the course
of a single child born today.

That's a very compressed period.

So they're probably not many
skeptics in the audience but

that what I want to highlight
is if you're not convinced

the reading which the grubber greenhouse
effect is increasing temperatures and

could you do an experiment of your own and
this is my research assistant.

I've had it with me for that seven years.

Particularly round and here are two

Mason jars and
regular house of Winokur and

about two fingers worth of household
that are and then in really left hand.

Some baking soda and we put on a stab and

some poultry thermometers and
so what's happening here.

Is a simulation of an enhanced
greenhouse atmosphere

that chemical reaction
between the vinegar and

the baking soda is releasing a lot of
carbon dioxide into that jar and so

if we take these two jars run which
is vinegar and one with the enhanced

carbon dioxide in it and we put it in the
sun you have to do it during the daytime.

Which you refined is that
after that ten minutes or sad.

Even though that action itself.

Who ran the mason drives an action so

it doesn't actually members temperatures
inside the mason jar which is fine.

Is that the absorption of sunlight
travelling through the jar is such that

an enhanced kind of carbon dioxide
environment here it will raise

temperatures and if you do this experiment
ten times you will get this outcome.

Exactly ten times.

This is a.

You can demonstrate for yourself and
your own that that's not my word for it.

Try it yourself.

We had that particular phenomenon
playing out of course and

the lasso have drivers in the family.

We call the urban heat island effect.

And this gives rise to this
urban temperature anomaly.

Which again is the combination of warming.

On top.

And this is of course a familiar So

this is Atlanta is trying to develop
information on how cities around me.

Independent of the planet as a whole if
we want to have a sense of how rapidly

over time we can just rely on the grid
count for these little drivers but

here on the three.

The first is just a mass of natural
vegetation use in the first

ocean when we cut down
trees temperatures rise and

they rise even if the environment
you know put out that houses.

Waste heat.

And this is certainly happening places
trap with a massive trap of the first

what's happening is a major
source of attention trees or

reservoirs of moisture and
because it's used to

evaporate rar in the form of evaporate
evaporation and transpiration.

And so that's a natural mechanism.

That so used to evaporate rather
the energy is locked up in the rod or

transfer of the RAF.

I mean we have cloud formation and
so that's a very about for

energy that goes from the land surface
to the apparatus here and environment so

we cut down trees with that.

Natural mechanism we like
to come in contact and

pave over that with with traffic from
our perspective drive materials.

So Black asked us.

We see here that.

Because we're so we were before.

Concrete that would be that would lessen
the fact that this impervious material

greatly increases the amount of warming
within cities and which is comes from.

Comes from industry comes from fuel.

In a lot of heat energy
in the environment so.

Some significant additional rain.

Pretty extensively but
will say fifteen degrees Fahrenheit and

access temperature in the afternoon.

On a summer day compared
to the nearby rural areas.

So this question in the eleven climate for
the planet.

As a whole because it's basically.

Eliminated to screw with just cities.

There's no temperature record for cities.

In particular and
fifty of the largest cities in the U.S.

for which we can get in five decades.

So we're controlling for things like.

Natural cycles the natural Sarah cycle
that my fluctuate over time and so

in each of the long term
temperature record.

Saffron and
threw around the city and areas and.

In those trends over time we
see here is a real trend for

fifty cities from one thousand
nine hundred twenty ten and

this this trend line mirrors very closely.

The trend as a whole and said we superior.

Temperature.

And then periods of running that
are sustained in recent decades.

In an upward trend.

And so.

Periods of.

I mean the difference between this
line here in the current status

right we assume it's driven by
greenhouse gases is a real areas and

so the urban heat island effect
should not be right here

where similar is not a lot of change
over time it's increasing tempers.

So we assume this is driven
by greenhouse gases and

we come in the urban rather trend on this
and this is some more useful information.

The first is that on
average in the hotter.

Right.
So the average temperature is hotter over

time the difference about height doesn't
sound like a lot but actually it actually

translates into significant temperatures
in the afternoon and so of an urban

heat island across the cities we can also
read that letter is driving temperatures.

How much of this is
the greenhouse effect and

how much of this is the urban heat island
effect do this bag I'm just looking out of

the car this is the this is the global
climate a fact and this is in place.

Both in its impact in urban areas.

The difference between.

Is the impact of the urban heat island and

say in our years as an average
the heat island is contributing

additional heat to cities the global
climate changes in cities most

of the reading we've seen over the last
few decades is for energy consumption.

As opposed to the global
greenhouse effect.

And the trend is just increasing
more rapidly in the cities or

most of the heat is from drivers.

And so that because

of some useful information if we're
concerned about heat in cities about.

The rats of magnitude in the trends
over time and so we can measure that.

And what we're trying to measure is what
we call a rate if the plan is to have

about three point five and
hyper decades that says history.

The last fifty years.

The plan is going to
over one hundred years.

It's much higher because greenhouse gases
continue to increase over time but if you.

Happen in the room for
all of our cities it's just two bars.

Good proxy for the planet.

But about the same rate per decade.

On average have an amplification made
of about fifty percent ready for

decades is about fifty percent
greater than your bad areas.

In our dataset to somebody
who are not growing.

Time or their shrinking.

Store areas where there's lots of
atmospheric mixing and so the heat is

distributed around and so it's pretty
much consistent over time or hotter.

But over time.

Because that mix and
then just a handful of cases.

The trend is actually it's actually trend.

That took the rest out
towns were very common

and you see that.

Is actually rather have to the rate of so
that's that's a pretty

small number of cities that we see here
are the results for cities with that

include seventy percent seventy two
percent of the cities and I dataset.

So if Majesties have
an application rate that is match.

Rafter's one hundred percent.

And so
if it's going to seven degrees farenheit

of the century then places like a constant
over time which is what we don't

know I will run by maybe seven or fifteen
degrees Fahrenheit over the current.

Current century and so
that's a significant amount of warming and

raises a lot of questions
about have been about.

And things of that nature.

So this is an affair.

This is twenty years or twenty five.

In terms of the magnitude of

what you're seeing if you are still
running in excess of the trend.

So again this is per decade so

the ten years ahead is where I
mean by point three per decade.

So that's right here.

That's my point three degrees.

That means exactly
the right of the planet.

So it's twenty three degrees on top of
the background rate global rate so.

Sixty per century.

On top of the global rate and so

I've been spending some time there to talk
to them about that particular challenge.

Is that they're not surprising in Atlanta.

So we're number three.

At about six degrees Fahrenheit.

Over the century and
that's based on historical rates so.

When we think about.

When we think about the integrity.

If we have a high temperature
an average high temperature and

I say ninety five degrees.

The planet's going to maybe one hundred
two hundred and average you say.

Eleven twenty or twenty nine days.

It's going to be higher than that and
it's going to be less one hundred ten.

Based on based on what's happening
to all of a person's back and.

Most of the forces that are driving these
processes are and so this becomes really.

A pretty significant
challenge in terms of both

issues with the city itself.

With the infrastructure.

So you don't effect is the dominant driver

in the large cities in
taverns patterns change.

Rapid results in slammer I mean in cities
and that's really what I talk about.

In the last section of the presentation.

I'm going to talk about very strategy
focused on greenhouse gas management.

Zero missions of greenhouse gases
in Atlanta tomorrow that will

ever write to the house gases have
a fact on which the city's warming.

It's more about the global
scale house in missions to.

Three hundred years before the city stops
and so if you and I read about this from

a public health perspective they're going
to be thinking about urban design and land

use tools that are focused on the local
drivers the urban heat island effect.

There's essentially useful for

reducing greenhouse gas
emissions which we have to do.

But we have to deal with
the local sources and so

that's where that that's what we
focus on so risk especially with.

Rising temperatures but.

I really dramatic event in two
thousand and three that impact.

Nations.

From sad during this period to
about ten degrees Celsius and

additional in some places.

Of heat.

You know temperature anomalies went on for

that summer for
weeks where there's a really high.

Translate into very
significant loss of life.

So in Paris temperatures
of one hundred degrees.

I'm numerous days and it nighttime you
have minimum about eighty degrees so

that you know that for
five in the morning.

You're still eighty degrees and
that's a really significant threat.

To public have particular temperatures
the eighty degrees because we can

do experiments to entirely very high
temperatures a lot of folks live

in desert environments work
outside of environments.

It's night.

To recover from the heat
that is most important to.

Essentially combating this.

Expense or a lot of heat just like
that a tree or any green plant.

Perspiration a poor ourselves on.

Your heart rate.

The circulation of bread in your system.

Fantastic continue for hours and
hours now hours that where your system

itself can raise your body temperature and
result in some significant heat on this

side in this region of the rather curse
there's not a lot of air conditioning.

It's not it's very very uncommon
to find air conditioning and

many of these European nations and so.

Manifest itself in lots of
emergency room visits and

lots of people died and so the highest
he really fatalities were in the larger

cities there was a network of temperature
monitors and cells that were not there for

the where they were there for
another study that measured.

Appears to be about fifty percent hotter.

Temperatures and so

staying in Lebanon by an extended
heat wave is an extreme risk to you.

And that's really played out in Europe and
in this down in black and so

the question the same are.

Access that that are simply measured
as in access two to previous years.

Same time of year same number of
deaths and so over the countries and

we saw the death toll that exceeded
seventy thousand people in one summer and

so even in France.

I'm about twenty thousand residents
in each of those countries died.

That's a that's a pretty astounding number
given how the medical systems are and

their mercy response systems and
so lots and lots of people

are very advanced part of the part
of the world from exposure to heat.

And so one of the challenges with heat is
that we tend to underestimate as a true

threat and so to demonstrate as I talk
about the bricks to bodies ratio.

This is entirely more been
entirely kind of academic.

But what I'm showing here death toll is
associated with some of climate events and

some are not climate events and
a number of books that have been published

about the event since they occurred so
satyrs.

Acute Respiratory Syndrome occurred
in the same summer two thousand and

three Care About seven
hundred hundred people riot.

It was close to hysteria it's and
it can spread very rapidly but

it is many people since other events
where the number of deaths about that.

Not personally but
you can find them in two thousand and

five about fifteen hundred people
died in that national nightmare.

And two hundred books have
been written about Katrina

to be found in the Library
of Congress today and

nine eleven on economy been obviously
about four thousand people in total died.

I was five hundred vets
have been right about now.

Right and justified.

Even a tsunami in Japan.

Just last year a huge death toll.

Almost twenty thousand people
in a very advanced country.

You can only find a couple books on that.

Events in terms of the number of lives
lost again in excess of seventy thousand.

I can't find a single weapon in writing
which has been written about this and so

with that I conclude from
that is that heat is not

assessed as a significant risk.

By society it's very familiar to
us is something that we encounter

on their regular basis.

Many in this country then in that
a famine catastrophic right.

On average it's more better than her.

It's my level twenty eight as
it's my better than earthquakes.

It's my Beverly Instead it's my
Devon are the best things combined

in the average year in the US.

And so
we underestimate the threat of heat.

And it's threat to us in a warming
world and so if we live in

cities that threatens particular because
it's been amplified year after year.

By both a rising greenhouse.

So if you're feeling comfortable
because you have a conditioning.

Let me disabuse you of that and that
same sandwich had the most significant

blackout in North American history
fifty five million people.

Raf without power.

It didn't last very long
it was driven by the heat.

In the country and it was so
intense that high high power.

I my parents through Ohio.

Tried to physically sag under the heat and

the intensity of the load in those and
they sat so much that they had some.

I mean shredded out entire network
in the Northeast and into Canada.

And so
must have a fabulous mission as a party.

To the power goes out and.

Fans cannot refrigerate their food so

restaurants are open that
some have some other stuff.

And have some free food.

If you imagine a graphic for the Cure.

It's nice much fun right.

You going to rock.

You had a rough time of.

It's really hot outside.

But still that night it was as
a party if you stayed in Manhattan.

People had fun about twenty four
to thirty six hours for anybody.

And so that's that's that's
the period time I was could be

construed as something that's somewhat
exotic it extends beyond that but

it's not hard to imagine that this
becomes a significant problem.

Health problem very quickly.

We can't pump gas.

So you're not going to drive out of there.

On a subway.

Commuter rail line you're not going
to the control towers don't work.

You don't have air conditioning the grocer
doesn't have a commissioning and

after a certain period of time
the generators that are pumping the route

are going to fail as well unless
you can deliver that fuel.

And so you've got a situation
without a lot of people.

In a very dense environment.

It's very hot and you can't deliver
basic services to them today and

most subsidies we don't have a plan for
this we get very close to

that to the very vast land.

Several years ago and I brought in
the Russia director at the time to one

of my classes and pressing him and

I was as the day after there was
the plan and we finally got them and

that they Reza planned to track and
router the metropolitan region and

said That sounds like a plan that

would be very challenging to service
our population with rather trucked in.

I can imagine a very similar
environment like Manhattan.

This is the environment in which we're in.

And it's an environment where trends that
are not favorable to us when we have

rising temperatures rising in intensity
and number of heat waves as I show you in

a minute and then we have a rising
incidence of failures and this is that if

the early ninety's to that and
we see a bad trip and the number of.

Professors of blackouts of one sort or
another was driving this maybe to a small

degree rather Well extreme weather and he
mostly was trying this is just the man for

energy and our inability to keep tapping
service that demand over time and so

these are trends that
make it quite feasible

that we're going to see a concurrence
of a significant back out with.

Extreme close to that.

Do you see this summer.

Which is seven that's.

Managers really need to be focused
on in addition to public health

infrastructure problems and so
he's certainly seen in two thousand and

three saffron tarmac This is
from a summer with there he was

battling red roses in Iran around two
thousand and six require a mathematician

to do the back of the calculation on
on how much we would have to invest

to resurface already environments
to cope with rising temperatures

all these materials are designed to
withstand pretty high temperatures.

But not for an extended period of time.

That's when you start to see the back
winds and the failures and so

that the challenge.

Environment.

Is certainly dramatic particularly with
twice the rate of the planet as a whole

so he waves here every dimension a few
ways we can measure this is steady but

then he'd be one of our graduate
students here has taken the lead on.

Every every every characteristic he waves
in us that we can measure over the last

several decades is increasing
the frequency if he was uncertain.

Of the duration and
intensity of the GOING TO HOT.

And the time to the first

the number of days until the first heat
wave as has declined by about two weeks.

Instead of in June and so
these are trends that are driven again.

By.

Graph and
accentuated by what's happening in cities

are some cities may ran a bit when others.

We've asked is rather that when a spell or

he rapidly in contact cities and

we ask this question because sprawling
cities are seeing significant change.

There's a lot of deforestation and
we know that relationship is there.

And so we're curious to see
where the spread actually plays

per year in compact cities and so
here we have the diameter of the sun.

All is represented whether it's
a highly sprawling cities or

the larger diameter circles
we can be proud of.

Is are still in the smaller
places far Sharples.

Like this is where we're from vantage but
Chicago and

Providence are places that are more
compact through different nations have

the right which are increasing
the number of additional days per

year over a five decade period so
the red in the places where we are rising.

Pretty rapidly in the bluest
of places whether or

not visually you can see some patterns but
it's easier just in terms of us.

So the most contacts are seen
an increase in heat wave days.

That's an increase.

That's maybe a bad habit
less than a third.

Of the rate of the most and

several years during the southeastern U.S.

The rasta you can see that
what's important about the.

Extreme heat events is
that they're just for

thresholds that a region specific so
constitutes.

Is a much higher temperature
than what constitutes a he

says thresholds are based on when we
start to see emergency room visits for

heat and so they're directly
jested to the populations and

how acclimated the populations are to
various heat levels and so spans.

Tend to be associated with more rapid.

Rates of Romney he wears than contacts.

This is because of the rate of natural
language by Ross it's a trick if you ask.

We see that in the study and this is where
we have consistent data we can look at it.

Rather similar trends with
the most bang is or see much more

of the first patient over time than
the most compact cities so cities.

Confronting some
significant challenges that

are very much near term challenges
that are coming right now.

You know expected to get much better.

The response be.

To these challenges and
I think the record straight.

Response is been somewhat wanting and
so this is a recent.

Advertisement that tries to make a point
about our perceptions of risk and

how that's not directly in
proportion with the magnitude

of the risks that we're confronting.

With respect to climate change.

I think it's actually
a number of reasons for

this one of the reasons that's addressed
in the back is that we have a faster

responses to the global
climate policy framework.

And so I want to talk a little bit
about that with the global scale.

Response structure.

But it's based.

Framework Convention on Climate Change
is the first policy mechanism and

we have done that with a series of
protocols of the Kyoto Protocol.

Trying to demonstrate that.

Disagreement on the basic
definition of climate change and

so we see the definition for
greater power say.

And is this a change of climate
which is attributed directly or

indirectly with human activity that alters
the composition of the lab rats fear and

which is in addition a natural
comparable time periods.

Of higher here composition
the global atmosphere suggest

that climate change is driven by rising
concentrations of greenhouse gases and

that actually is scientifically.

True of the plaza her.

From the global greenhouse effect is
driven by two basic mechanisms and

this is probably familiar to you but
we'll do a little science class or

for a minute so greenhouse gases
accumulate in the atmosphere.

Sure revelation from the.

Travers writes of the greenhouse gases is
absorbed by the service rheumatiz mangrove

relation and that lamination is
trapped by the greenhouse gases.

It warms the perfectly natural
mechanism without which we

hear the planet would be how to boil
concentrations of greenhouse gases and

that's increasing the global
greenhouse effect.

With this particular definition is that
if you have a greenhouse gases constant

increase the amount of RAM by revelation
that's leaving the planet that also

increases the greenhouse effect.

And so
cities are seeing an increase in support.

That is not captured by Brits
particular definition at all.

And so by kind of the climate change
problem in understanding the only terms.

We're missing the major drivers of
climate change at the urban scale and

that's that's incredibly unhelpful.

It leads to ever spat framework
that's based on a dichotomy between

patient mitigation is defined in
terms of greenhouse gases because

we understand climate change
because of greenhouse gases alone.

And so that we can capture we can try to
capture carbon out of power plants and

then somehow there's a time that we're

on the gravel greenhouse effect and
it would like to read.

It it becomes more technologically viable.

The flip side of this is adaptation
which is about responding to.

The amount of climate change
that would mitigate so

many question perceives adaptation.

Mitigation fares adaptation kicks in

a matter rest I would not
invest in that property.

I live.

Be skeptical about.

So we have an incomplete definition
plays out in important ways.

There's a picture of Chicago during
one thousand nine hundred five.

Whether that cities can be conceptualized
engines for greenhouse gases.

To make that seventy percent
are greater missions.

In urban environments and so I understand
you have contributed that is important.

And a key area of research.

Is that cities raster very large engines.

Of sensible radiation.

Understand driven by greenhouse gases
increasing variation in sensible

heat that is also driving climate change
particularly at the urban scale and so.

One of the factors here is that it

has the most productive actions
with an effective strategy down.

Dressed that problem but
only in a very you know trivial amount

is not a big major engine for
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and

so we're trying to treat
scientists probably not as.

Great or insulation in buildings
where driving our cars laughs or

having a more efficient.

There are things to do but very few of
those things were actually And so if

you if you're running around the city trip
planning is exactly what you should be but

there's climate change that tells you to
do that and so there's a real disconnect.

In the terms of the way we
understand these things.

So when I when I present.

The idea that we should be integrating.

Separating them in the form of adaptive
mitigation which edifies kind of mentioned

activities designed to reduce the
greenhouse effect where it really benefits

in the form of heat management
led management and resilience and

other benefits.

The basic argument here.

That if we have two strategies
that we can pursue.

Reduce carbon dioxide emissions
concentrations in the atmosphere.

Let's say we can spend fifty
million dollars on a power plant

to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by X.
number of units.

If we take that fifty million dollars and

invest it in green strategies
in cities that directly.

Reduce temperatures and.

Reduce the amount of energy could
possibly reduce the same units.

Of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

But the children secondary benefits.

This approach her benefits for
our local environments.

This approach cruise down cities
raw reduces Not so the argument

here is that we should be thinking of
the global scale about how to incentivize.

So have adapted benefits and
there's a better benefits management.

It could be an agricultural
resilience are things you.

You see here Fred management almost
Things are very closely associated

with the types of strategies in
cities that tend to cool them down.

Today is rather stupid and
that it does not prioritize it or

recognize any secondary adaptive
benefits of medication strategies.

So what we strive for

first class is tragedies
are called sunscreen strategies.

This is a graphic from just a very just a.

Dissertation a few days ago.

Successful.

He's quite effective
graphics in my opinion this

is a neighborhood from Chicago to
number heads that clearly demonstrate

the relationship between
the basic structure and.

Surface temperature and
so in this neighborhood.

It's kind of hot neighborhood has
less of the same number of houses as

the neighborhood thirty nine to thirty
five but many different Raja's.

Here in seventy seventy one bedrooms
versus thirty seven we can see the tree

canopy is less dense than we see
in the Kumu Hood and so just

the physical design of those two numbers
which are very close in space in Chicago.

Temperature here a difference
of seven degrees Celsius.

That's a significant difference in
surface temperatures that will last or

translate into air temperatures Sanscrit
are the most basic strategies for

dealing with management.

I'm just like the sunscreen
you put on your skin.

It's in one way or another.

The environment.

It promotes evapotranspiration in.

There's that very fact of the as well.

An example from believe in
combination these kinds

of strategies the sunscreen challenge
can be very effective in cooling down.

There's a study that looked at
Los Angeles last Angeles basin and

there was it was asking this question if
the plant trees around Los Angeles and.

The flat roofs have an investor ability
to reflective roofing in Los Angeles.

How much could it affect
when they found this.

Those trees were trees
that's a lot of trees

in a computer which is easier and
more cost effective.

But when they did that and one minute half
they reduced it by about sixty percent.

So a dramatic reduction as far as
the simulation was concerned and

then when they add in the.

You never hear that and so
this is a powerful example I've run

with climate change moving forward and
that is we can focus

our energies on reducing greenhouse
gas emissions which we need to do.

Absolutely and
temperatures absolutely no reduction

which is discouraging but unfortunately
that's what the physics tells us.

Invest in the strategies they
have two sets of benefits.

As they could reduce the stress
amateur's their ass or

reduce our consumption of energy which
reduces greenhouse gas emissions.

This is a strategy that has
global benefits as well

on this very very few incentives
that pursue these things.

This is a class of strategies that
affect some what's happening outside

the city center.

Let's just focus on the current
Safa temperatures we see

downtown are part of
the region as a whole.

New master metro regions is happening out.

Massed percent about thirty percent
of its heavy tree canopy over twenty

between the seventy's and the ninety's.

Which.

Certainly is a period of
rapid suburbanization.

That has had a significant
impact on temperatures.

Down and asked the question whether.

If we.

Change there is that have been
a threat for the urban as well.

With environmental engineering.

Some of the models for us and.

The continuum of what would
that do to temperatures and

if vs what they did several years.

What's important here is that what's
happening outside the city is

intensity of heat within the city itself.

So just focusing on
the urban core is not enough

to be thinking more broadly than that.

And the final strategies we were
just strategies that are based on.

That are designed to improve
energy efficiency just

in terms of greenhouse gases.

So just.

It is a significant driver tends to
average three major drivers in terms of

the medical but it still accounts for

maybe twenty twenty five percent
of our city is a part of vehicle.

And even just human power.

Just reading and living.

Is about five percent of the cities and
so that suggests that

by investing in kind of classic planning
strategies like transit systems

we can actually both greenhouse gas
emissions and reduce local temperatures.

If it's done sufficiently.

If it's an extensive rag so

well that I want to conclude
in just a few finer points.

You had a good night last night I
don't make any assumptions about.

Mr Perry last night but big reds
happy with you for obvious reasons.

Playing trees in cities and
setting that very grass of Ray is open.

There are costs associated with this and
the cost of the true is the cost of

the management of the cost of the houses
that the trees and the storms can.

Prove to be one a very most effective and
one

of the things we can do to actually offset
temperatures over the next decade or

two and so I think cities will
pursue this rather aggressively.

But this.

Needs to be read in a way that's not naïve
twenty million the truth would be a huge

huge challenge for say so many ways and

also very hard to address
these constant problems or so

I say with that aspect of climate
change that we haven't talked about.

Like we just saw with Hurricane Sandy and
so we need to be thinking about

the integration of these two
strategies and I think focusing on

the strategies is effective in
addressing the gravest issues because it

much more effectively can tax rises the
kind of change problem in talking about.

The global commons talking
about the North Pole.

Talking about horror Bales talking
about twenty one hundred and so

the idea that you might argue that riding
your bike to work rather than driving

is a useful thing to do not only because
it reduces greenhouse gas emissions but

because then your city.

If it's integrated with parks planning and
it contributes to some vehicles

might be an easier sell if you see
the benefits in the context of

your own environment that might be
a much easier sell the idea of that.

May become really appealing.

If we can present this as a as a way
to interact with your own community

community as a retrograde
in your own backyard.

Even if you're in a highly
urbanized environment.

This has been if it's
the plan as a whole and

that it reduces greenhouse emissions
that are associated with production.

It has been It's local in
that your local neighborhood.

If you can demonstrate the benefits
to people that are content to rise in

the time.

And the environment which their lives.

It's actually much more powerful because
of an academic argument about greenhouse

gases in the future if you can instead.

In a way that creates a space for

gathering that creates
an environment that is static

that is a very good strategy to not
only reduce greenhouse gas emissions but

I would use local temperatures and
our strategies to contact arise.

The problem of climate change and

I read that our current structures
don't do very well at all.

And so I have often reference that

mine is as a fabulous climate project
it wasn't designed to reduce.

Or address climate change and
the director Specter.

But the fact that it leads
to greater green space to

them in the city that we
have some of the transit and

that it brings people
outside to participate in it.

To directly interact with this kind
of project is highly beneficial.

And directly relevant to cities with that.

Thank you.

I don't know if you want to have.

My planner for the cap County.

About.

You know because you have.

You have.

I want to address concentrations
of greenhouse gases with.

The buildings because it actually.

Which tends to be the principal driver.

And the grabber passing structure that
is focused on greenhouse gases alone.

To say we should be concerned
about greenhouse gases and

actually pursuing it is just
a an observation that we could structure

that policy framework to more effectively
incentivize actions that have.

Benefits.

So that.

So we can do it with atmospheric
carbon when we can reduce or

limit emissions and so
we are continually rising levels of

atmospheric are not I don't
have a greenhouse gases.

So we can reduce emissions that's all we
can pull emissions out of the atmosphere.

Missions that Alastair
is that we can do with

with vegetation and first management
policies in seven that we.

Mechanical systems and there are some
prototypes in place to do that.

Of course that uses energy itself so
that complicated.

But the principle of that policy
regime is on reducing emissions and

it's been fantastic.

Well and successful.

Well through the strategy.

Has really as we look at it today
has been remarkably unsuccessful.

And so.

My concern with that is not that we
should be focused on that is that I

think that we have it can
touch the promise that it has

from communities that were much more
effective reduction of greenhouse gases.

If we can to the benefits.

And I think that's a mechanism
to get people more active in

changing their behaviors.

Let me just show your true expression.

True and.

Very powerful mechanisms for

protecting existing canopy they're not
designed to increase canopy and so.

Bad design kind of a defensive policy.

And they are constantly under attack and
so in Atlanta we have one of the most

productive aggressive you'll find in
a country which is no net true loss

rapidly so much of that becomes
an issue and I mean first met

some of that becomes an issue of
the way structured in the right way.

Penalizes you for coming.

And how.

Which is problematic.

And.
But for the most part.

It's a very useful place to look in
terms of establishing strengths.

But it's entirely defensive is
just about where you are as

far as your existing canopy.

It doesn't address the fact that we need
to be dramatically increasing our canopy

and so we're going to tools to do that.

Was a good question.

No now.

So you had a diagram that showed
rural areas compared urban areas.

Actually the argument is
based on that diagram.

OK you're going to get
a direct share where you can.

Which one and that way after that.

It's just yes that.

OK yeah.

OK And you had so in this diagram.

Actually it's a little clearer and
the ones that come after you have

the bar charts where you're
showing the differential.

So one of the things that's
striking of course the rural.

Around cities.

Actually less than the global.

Part of that it could be averaging but
it also could be related to the fact

that land because because part of this
is driven by the idea that land has

not changed around cities and
you're assuming that there really.

This is a fairly significant period of
time in which agriculture has been.

Significant places to forest.

So there could be some of the same effects
that you were talking about in terms of

Rust Belt cities could be occurring
in the cities which would tend to

accentuate the difference if you
didn't have that difference.

So I'm just wondering
if you could comment.

As well.

And have.

That.

Area right.

Radius around it.

I mean.

There are.

You know the same.

For the stations but it's pretty high.

And so could you have.

Absolutely.

That's happening.

Is that.

Part of the country where you are.

Bias.

The fact that you know it's.

This is a pretty good as well.

So you know.

And I have to account for
that I think is the best we can do.

Your question.

Yes.

So I'm thinking about that Chicago

neighborhood from Jason's
dissertation work.

And I'm interested in understanding
how to prioritize tree planting so

we saw the density of trees in one
neighborhood versus the other.

And I'm sure that you know that benchmark
of density differs as you move from

the southeast to the northwest.

And so I'm wondering if you can
comment on that as well as.

The species of trees that are important
from one region to be other

so important question.

And I think this is where
the fact that we focused so

intently to the scale is catching up with
us because there's very little rock.

That's focused on first and so

we know that the maps are moving and so.

True is that we have made.

Particular.

Over the coming decades and
species of trees.

Now which I don't know.

But we're not doing it.

Yes And so
that's that's a huge problem is that.

Tens of thousands.

To support it.

And probably all regions of the country
are going to be experiencing more intense

weather and people houses and

so I mean that you know the species mix.

That has been history but
you know that's just off the cuff.

I mean the conversation has not been had.

To the extent that it needs to be had for

the institute next week
to talk about this.

Trees.

Very viable.

And so now I can question is asked.

I just know to my knowledge
that there are great

great questions because we're going
to spend a lot of money on this.

I wish I had a better answer.

Just an interesting take on
climate change that I think

has a lot of a benefit to it and it's not
something I really thought about before of

the traditional things we hear about
climate change is more intense weather

events more flooding more tropical storms
more intense hurricanes and more drought.

And the mitigation techniques
that you're talking about here

really probably don't apply as much.

So what kind of framework would you
think about to prioritize investments.

Across all those different types of risk.

In terms of minimizing
terms of adapting to them.

OK So you know what I think it's

an orientation climate change and
it's particular permutation which is

largely in the family of heat and
extreme heat is that it is

in this country awareness and

a lack of concern that these issues and so

you know my problem.

I think about these other issues.

I don't think so.

I certainly don't consider to be
a factor in dealing with those issues.

So I don't see this as a compliment or
perhaps the range of facts that are set of

climate change which

appears to be heat that are probably
there's a restoration and

things we can do as kind of
infrastructure strategies to manage.

Things like that but

there's no getting around the fact
that we're going to have to engineer

the infrastructure to deal with some of
those issues of the have to abandon areas.

But that doesn't come from me.

That's just the broader literature.

It doesn't give you a very
good answer your question.

I don't know the answer.

Yes ma'am.

Right.

Threshold at the Metropolitan scale.

Beneficial to spread is a beneficial
spread out because you could have a green

spaces and think that's a good thing but
find the carbon footprint.

And so you know it's not beneficial
phenomena and look at it.

And I think simplistic.

Address that issue now.

But that's not true for the region as
a whole internet raises the question.

You know.

We have too much density.

Is that increase.

Requires increase in terms of.

That is going to resource intensive but
it provides the economic base to do that.

To think about maybe we
can actually afford to do.

Maybe invest in whether that's a.

Can I can I tell you that you know.

High rise district is going
to reduce temperatures.

It's quite possible that
I'm not measuring that and

I don't know anybody that is we're
just not serious enough about it yet.

QUESTION I think in theory.

I don't.

That that density becomes too much but
it could scale in terms of

high cost of energy it becomes more

of those higher floors and
so I don't know.

But I think those are the kind of
questions we should be asking there just

are not many people thinking about.

So it's a great question.

Dr Stone I have two questions
one methodological one about.

Extrapolating changes in
regions from single point no.

Measurements at airports and.

Policy question is right of the drivers.

Of their heat island such
as changes in service

very similar to water quality issues and
we're seeing a paradigm shift in.

Storm water and water quality management
and to what extent do you think that

these issues should be paired together
in stacked as sort of ecosystem services

values to benefit some of the costs
that are going to be related with great

technology as you've mentioned in your
last answer on the second question.

So how does how does.

We're trying to talk about mitigation and
interstitial green space and.

Temperature and
cities impervious surface vegetation.

Those are also factors that
include water quality and.

So you know the policies
center such as Philadelphia or

Cleveland those that are taking on
comprehensive storm water management but

also think about the benefits that they're
going to be taking as a secondary effect

and I think that are serious about
dealing with with heat management and.

That's a small number.

But you're serious about
green infrastructure.

So it's not that you know
that now we have a storm or

that it's that they are green
infrastructure and so

you can look at you know the green
hours program Chicago is designed for

both of those benefits is designed to
an extensive network of valleys which is.

Retaining a lot of
the ground that has been

there for those benefits.

So I think it's pretty rare to have a city
that that is not savvy about one issue and

sees the connection.

Basically.

And so I think that's find out it's.

You know it's just not characterized
as having a comprehensive plan.

There's not a single answer.

You know question about
thinking about ten or

twenty years down the road for
heat management and I just think that

that's a conversation that all of
these cities need to be having.

Because you know I think that lane
is going to try to plant trees.

Come to grips with work and funny.

Thing about that.
Now your first question was representing

weather stations.

Yeah.

And so that's that's I mean
that's a great question.

It's a challenge.

Very consistent.

I mean we have probably
a greater density of

networks than we have right to represent.

Regions of the planet with our
limited number of observations.

And that's just the best we can do and
so they're trying to account for that.

Number of stations.

Including a large number of years but
the first.

That.

Goes back fifty years.

If you have.

Temperature measurement.

I think it's

a great question.

But I think I think as an average for.

OK.

So.

It's going to

benefit from.

It is not going to be a good
approach to ask the question.

You know if.

You

can.

Question.

OK.

Different cities.

So I was surprised to see that
last Angelus was sprawling.

So my question like How
do you define Sprat.

Question this question quite a bit.

People are fascinated with Los Angeles.

So this is a sprawling.

A lot of work and measures population.

Through different spatial
metrics they go into this.

Spread out region with a huge population.

Population.

And if you remember it's
just the high rise density.

Because it has a huge population and
that's that's why.

It's like Manhattan at the top.

And.

Most compact to reverse
that is the most compact.

So it's a problem measure that.

Is the most compact in the U.S.
based on this problem.

And I think.

The question I just I'm just just one
more so than snatching of cities.

Considering that Houston which
appears to be quite a Sprouts.

If by that definition.

It's not on the map and.

I'm not sure about the time
in the Northeast it's huge.

Bird the resolution of this.

This is entirely driven by.

Stress.

Which doesn't have an index which doesn't
have a history of us in the conference.

The first year and he says this data set.

So we can.

Question.