Thank you Jim for that kind introduction. And I would like to start by thanking the supply chain and logistics Institute for inviting me to share some thoughts on additive manufacturing and three D. printing and how. These technologies are going to impact the. Supply chain. And so just a little bit about myself. I came here came to the United States in one thousand nine hundred very passionate about manufacturing events many factoring and fast forward twenty seven years later I'm really happy to be working in this area so my my background is primarily in many factoring process development. With the specifically in the fields of three D. printing and additive manufacturing and designing and developing new processes new machines and developing the materials know how to enable breakthrough advances across a number of industry sectors including aerospace biomedical automotive and even nanotechnology. So I've been a Georgia Tech for ten years now I came here in two thousand and seven and prior to that I was at the University of Michigan and arbor for seven years where I started my academic career. And then moved here in two thousand and seven and have been here since then. So as I said my background is primarily we're on many fracturing processes for three D. printing and additive. More recently have become interested after some conversations with colleagues in in in your school. To discuss the impact of supply chains impact very to many fact and supply chain so I'm going to share some thoughts on that today so before I go into some of those subs split the stock into two parts the first part is going to be more of a primer a background on three D. printing a narrative many factions I know that I'm sure that several of you have already seen quite a bit of the. In the in the media in the press on on Web sites and lots of You Tube videos out there but I just thought I'll talk a little bit about the genesis and some backbone on three D. printing out of the manufacturing and then. Then after that get into some of the. Impacts on the supply chain. So first thing interestingly enough this name additive manufacturing. Just give you a little background and I'm not going to bore you for ninety minutes here you know you have time to one thirty but I'll try to keep it as brief as I can this is a relatively recent term additive manufacturing and three D. printing about ten years ago when we said three D. printing we were all the people that worked in this field all were referring to a particular process that came out of MIT which was spreading powder and then printing droplets of a binder. Abit of manufacturing came about again roughly about ten years ago prior to that there were about a half a dozen or so names you know there are all kinds of rapid prototyping rapid manufacturing layered many factions and so forth and some of these are listed here. And the community came together and said look there's too much the so many different names too much confusion why don't we. You know come up with the common terminology that will be used across the board and that's what I did in manufacturing came on so the. American Society for. Testing of materials S.T.M.. Came up with the definition so we didn't even have standards we didn't have any esteem committee Sony has to be in committee was formed is the F A S D M A forty two committee that came up with this definition process of joining materials to make objects from three D. model data usually layer by layer as opposed to subtractive technologies like machining one of the things they also didn't include here are things like forging casting and they were primarily informing to removal of material from a block. And so really how it works we start with our design some concept that we have we we draw it up on a CAD computer workstation drop the design and then that design gets turned into a specific file. And that file represents the surface of the part all of the surfaces on the part and then that file then gets mathematically sliced. So we determine a direction and on orientation in which we're going to build a part. And having defined that orientation then we mathematically slice that file and the slicing of that file mathematically will give was a series of cross sections. And those cross sections basically determine where there is material in the part and where there is no material award and that information is then transferred to a three D. printing device a three. Printer and that takes the information present in each of those slices and then determines commands on where it needs to go and deliver material where it needs to go deposit material in some instances there's only one material that's being deposited and it might be to some kind of a tiny little nozzle to which you're delivering a molten plastic which is what most does stop pretty printers that's how they work in other cases you might have two different materials will be one material which is called a part material another material called a support material and that becomes important especially when you have complex three dimensional geometry and as you're building up a part of your growing apart because what you're doing is layer by layer deposition as the geometry changes you might reach situations where let's say you are growing apart like this and then it begins to. Have an overhang if there's no material right underneath it there's nothing to support so we have to build support structures in addition to the main part we would have to put support structures that can allow material to be grown on top as the cross-section changes oftentimes the support structure material can be a different material that can be easily dissolved the way removed after the particle has been completed. So. You see this this is a. Just very briefly allude to this. You know it's not it's not really clear on the screen here but the technology from the nine hundred ninety S. to present day has seen a pretty significant growth and I would say especially in the last ten years there's been somewhat explosive growth and that's got to do with the fact that many of these. The two major phenomena that have occurred one is where many of the patents that were filed in the late one nine hundred eighty S. and and early to mid one nine hundred ninety S. those patents expired. And this allowed other parties to come in and. Create. Low cost less sophisticated versions of these technologies that protected So one key example there is for instance. Stratospheres which is one of the if not very leading company in three D. printing today. Developed their technology called Fuse deposition modeling and what that does is nothing but it really effectively equivalent to a robotic glue gun so you have a blue gun that's mounted on an emotion stage and it's extruding a bit of modern plastic that technology was patented evolved into ever more sophisticated machines industrialize and so forth and when the patent expired a couple of years prior to that there was a bunch of other folks that were cloning the technology and that was the genesis of Maker Bot. Maker Bot came in and produced this ultra low cost printer that you know ordinary consumers could buy and what what's very interesting what happened there is. Stratus is so make a board as a threat and acquired them for seven hundred million dollars. That was amazing to I've never seen anything like that happen in the in this field and then later on it didn't actually that that didn't pan out and they took a four hundred million dollars charge for having made that acquisition because they didn't quite see they thought those SEALs were going to take off on these low cost printers and it just didn't happen but we're seeing that and we're seeing also that the. The the manufacturers that. Really gave rise to this to this field continue to improve their machines these machines were about ten years ago they were not very reliable but they invested lots of resources and they've made these machines much more reliable to the point where now you can make industrial grade parts and once that happened and once the availability of the ability to make metal parts became available. Sales began to take off so that's kind of what we are seeing today and in many instances this is really going towards industrialized manufacturing so if you look at different classifications there are roughly this committee came up with seven kind of seven classifications were all nearly all additive manufacturing and three D. printing technologies can be sort of bend into seven categories so first one is that for the plan rising action and here what what's being done is that you have basically a container of liquid a liquid polymer monomer and by shining. Typically shining U.V. light of though there are some instances where you can shine visible light as well but by printing by projecting U.V. light on that surface of that liquid resin you can harden it and you can do this layer upon layer in every layer having a different pattern and you can grow an object the original technology here was to be one of the first commercialized technologies by treaty systems which is one of the biggest players today but since then with the availability of chips like the Texas Instruments digital micrometer device which is the kind of device that drives this projector that's showing the images here. We can actually directly project images in ultraviolet light from a chip like what's projecting this image here. And then we can we can do this layer upon layer in built up so companies like form labs they're doing this kind of work so that fulcrum resurrection uses liquid. Liquid all liquid or liquids filled with particles then there's material extrusion that's the other one I mentioned earlier fuse deposition modeling here extruding the beads of a molten plastic and you're doing this in a controlled manner and growing up objects. Then you have part of a fusion and this is also gaining a tremendous amount of popularity especially for metal three D. printing. Fusion what you're doing is you're spreading a powder a fine powder and a thin layer that layer maybe on the order of a quarter of a millimeter not a quarter of a millimeter a quarter of a tenth of a millimeter so like twenty five microns which is roughly one third diameter of human hair so we linger on a thin layer of this powder and then you come in with a very tightly focused laser beam that scans over the powder and it fuses and melts it melts the part of particles in a given pattern and it forms some arbitrary two dimensional cross-section corresponding to the slice that's being printed and this goes on layer upon layer so we spreading thin layers of powder and using this very powerful focused laser beam to fuse these parts together to fuse these layers together the nice thing about part of it fusion is the power that can be applied polymer can be a plastic that's how it actually began it started with a process called selectively the centering and that was actually invented in my Ph D. advisors lab at the University of Texas Austin so we started with polymer Paolo's like nylon they were even doing powdered wax. Abs plastic and things like that and but what's become very very popular today is metal powders because there's a huge amount of interest in being able to directly print metal parts that you can go from a three D. design file to a printed metal part and with some additional work on the printed part be able to actually use that printed metal part in a functioning piece of machinery. So for instance this has become so so. Important and industrially relevant that G. just last year acquired two companies one was using pain and electron beam to fuse powders Another one was using a laser beam so the company that uses electron beam is a Swedish company called Arcam the other one was a German company called concept laser they were both acquired for roughly seven hundred million apiece so a one point four billion dollar investment that Gene made and in doing so literally they have snatched the majority of the metal three D. printing market. There's some other were going on in Europe as well as here on ceramic powders as well so that's part of it fusion then we have something called directed energy deposition where what we're doing is instead of having an existing part of bed we might be spraying the powder in the in the line of a laser beam and both the powder and the laser are moving together and they're depositing material continuously we can have a powder stream or we can have a wire that's being fed. And we can build up large quantities of large amounts of material fairly quickly you don't get very good drama trigger resolution you don't get very fine feature parts but if you want to make large parts and you want to put down a lot of material very quickly then directed energy depositions a good way to do it and in this one example recently a company called Norsk titanium. A Scandinavian company has established a one hundred twenty seven million dollar facility in New York state state of New York and what they're doing is they're taking a wire of titanium alloy and they're using a plasma to melt that wire and lead on. Lots and lots of material very quickly and in doing that they get a very high quality deposit such that it can be certified for use in aerospace so companies like Boeing and Airbus and others are streaming to this to this company to use that technology to directly print large structures for things like wings on aircraft. Then there's another process called material jetting and this is very similar to an injector printer so and so we know how to inject into works we have a print head that laying down droplets of ink but now instead of having an ink that's going to create printed characters we can have a functional ink so the ink could be. A suspension of some some material can be a metal or a ceramic things like that so we can or it could even be droplets a wax so they're actually printers that we use this method of material jetting to put on very fine droplets a wax and build up complex structures that you know can be used in casting jewelry for instance. Binder jetting is another one in this case you have a powder bed and instead of after sweeping up out of it instead of coming in with a laser beam to melt and fuse material you have an ink a print head like an inkjet print head that comes in and it's going to lay down droplets of a glue binder so when that's done. What we're doing is layer by layer we're printing glue in a bed of powder and that glue will dry pretty quickly and as we bring these layers together they're all bonded together so at the end you have a part that has a three dimensional shape and it's the part of particles held together by the glue now we can take that part and do additional things to it for instance we can put it inside a furnace we can burn away the glue and then it even higher temperature we can get these power particles that might be metal particles to get bonded together and we can increase the strength of the part that way and we can even infiltrate the park with some liquid metal. And make a strong dense part. So this is actually the technology if I don't know if anyone's here is hold of a. Cambridge Massachusetts based company called the Stop metal which has been in the news recently the stop metal is doing this they are. Sweeping the metal powder and then they are printing a binder and once that's done they take the part out they put it in a microwave centering furnace and they literally cook that part and make it strong the last one a sheet lamination and here what we're doing is we instead of taking a powder or a wire or droplets we're taking sheet the sheet might be a very simple print of paper and and what we're doing is we're printing and then we're cutting a pattern into the sheet and doing this layer by layer by layer building it up so if you. Stores like Staples they have a three D. printer from a company called M. core M C O R It's a British company and that's this is what they do their duty it's just regular. Printer paper the print colors on it and they stack it and they have an extremely sharp tool that comes in cuts on chips in you stack them up that way and then what you can what you get ultimately is a three D. printed object mean of. Paper and glue. OK So these are the seven major. Classes here the key thing to note is this is not new this is been around since the one nine hundred ninety S. late eighty's in one nine hundred ninety S. these most of these technologies have been around and it's only in the last ten years or so that as I said this three D. printing has really. You know got the attention of people across the world and I think it's got to do with a couple of things as I said improvement of technologies and also the expiration of patents that has allowed more consumer grade three D. printers to become available and that's caught the attention of people in the media and so forth. So. There's been a as I said tremendous amount of coverage in the media so is it hype or reality so back in two thousand and eleven The Economist printed an article in the showed that this. Replica of a Stradivarius violin was printed with plastic powder to part of a fusion so this is like nylon powder printed in the laser centering machine and you know they let me interrupt the car so what they were making the claim at the time was three D. printing makes it as cheap to create single items as it is to produce thousands and does undermines economies of scale that was fairly wishful thinking at that time and I think it's still us we're still nor there yet we're still not at the point where we can produce a single part as cheaply as it would be to make thousands three D. printing out of the manufacturing is not good at that scale of mass production where we can make thousands except for a few limited. Applications in a few limited. Compelling business cases and I'll show you some examples a little bit later. In the same the next year in twenty twelve. You know this claim was made this is going to be the toward industrial revolution and the digitization of manufacturing will transform the way goods are made and I'll change the politics of jobs to know there is some there is certainly some truth to this and as I go towards the end of my talk and show you how. The terminology today being used digitalisation or what they call industry four point zero. That is definitely going to play a role in. Modern three D. printing and additive manufacturing. And it is causing manufacturing to come to come back to. The wealthy countries so this is happening we're seeing that happen here in the U.S. we're seeing it happen in Europe as well and that's got to do more with digital manufacturing with greater levels of automation and the reduction of dependence on low cost labor. And it's not as digital So this is just what I just said this was again in The Economist that said as many faction goes digital it will change out of all recognition and some of the business of making things will return to rich countries that's definitely happening especially with. The explosion in sensors in the I.O.T. of internet of things that's coming together and that's going to play a huge role in the modern industrial manufacturing with embedding of sensors and gathering huge amounts of data that will then be interrogated and from that interrogation of the data the. Many factoring will be made much more efficient defects will be reduced crap rates will be reduced so that's going to play a big role. Same as you also said making things with a three D. printer changes the rules of manufacturing Yes it definitely does major thing it does it takes out tooling so international manufacturing whenever we make things we need to have a tool whether it's in casting or forging or machining who are molding injection molding any of those methods we always have to make a tool first that's going to enable making the part and the tool is typically specific to the part and so you have to go make the tool first and only then can you go and make part and especially when you have a lower number of parts initially to be made like in prototypes the cost of the tool would dominate so much that it would be oftentimes be cost prohibitive to do that but that is now that paradigm is broken because now the only tool that you need in most cases is the three D. printer itself and once you have your design file and the appropriate software to turn that into a set of instructions then it's going to go ahead and deposit the material and deliver the material additively and make up make up the part the other thing that it does is it dramatically opens up the design space. You know have the ability to make designs that were previously impossible to make because they were limited by the manufacturing methods and they were limited by the ability to make tooling to make a given design there are many many many designs for which you just can't even make the two it's impossible to make the tuning because the design is so complex now those those kinds of designs get enabled and that is going to enable a big revolution in manufacturing especially in what we call lightweight energy efficient designs you're going to see this in aerospace you're going to see this in automotive where we're going to take. Traditional there's. Lines and we're going to run them through a optimization process where that optimization process will carve out material that's no longer needed because the part is going to be it's going to lead to a very complex design or many oftentimes organic features but it will only be possible to make through additive manufacturing and so we're going to get these what are called apology optimized designs or generative designs Autodesk which is a major software vendor in this space has already made huge investments in this area and they've been there launching software products that are going to enable these kinds of optimized typology optimized designs which are going to ultimately enable light reading and like weighting is extremely important from the viewpoint of fuel efficiency so in aerospace if you can. Remove weight from the from the any port that's going to go on an engine or an aircraft it's going to lead to significant improvements in fuel efficiency same thing in automotive this and in cars. So. Gartner which is it's a well known firm. In the media space has something called the Gardner hype cycle and it goes like this old typically over time what you see so it's not. It's not clearly shown here but up here you look at maturity and here you see visibility so it starts over the technology trigger and what you see is there's a huge interest build up and it goes to a peak of inflated expectations were. The whatever the technology is it's anticipated to deliver way more than it actually is capable so there's a huge peak of inflated expectations and when those expectations are not met then. The the enthusiasm goes down and goes to a trough of disillusionment and when it hits the trough of disillusionment then there's a lot of work that goes in to improve the technology and make it more. Available for industrial use and then it begins to climb up the slope of light mint and part of productivity So here's a twenty thousand hype cycle again I apologize because of the. The resolution we can't really see that but here's where you can see that in twenty thirteen consumer three D. printing was right here at right at the top and that coincides with when major investments were made in these consumer three D. printing companies were it was the expectations were inflated way beyond. What should've been the norm and today when we when we look at today basically these are the consumer three D. printing has come through here down down the slope and to the trough of disillusionment and we're not quite there yet where we have consumer grade three D. printers that are available for an affordable cost that are going to. Be accepted by the public were the cost of the three D. printer and the cost of the the I think so the materials that go into them are going to be affordable on a you know to the common consumer but nevertheless let me show you the next so this is a somewhat better here so this is focused entirely on three D. printing and this is a twenty six thousand hype cycle so you can see where we are today with some of the technologies that are mature and certainly on their way to industrialization So we have three D. printing of hearing devices are showing example of the. Scanners three D. printing service bureaus where you can send your part designed over the Internet submit the part and they'll print the part and they'll ship it back to you. Software three print creation software that's maturing tremendously very fast and apprise three D. printing where you have people that are establishing companies establishing factories that are fleets of machines that are only making parts of three D. printing and then three D. printing of dental devices and I'll choose an example of that but you can see consumer three D. printing is still here it's not tear down it's not even hit the trough of disillusionment yet and some of the other things that we're going to see coming in the few in the next few years are going to be. Three by a printing printing of pictures and organs. Printing of pharmaceuticals. We're going to have individually tailored medicines and things like that we're going to have hip and knee implants and then three Treaty Printing Systems for organ transplant so all of these are right now on the way up through people to me three D. printing of consumable products is still very much at the starting initial stage but we've already seen some instances where we have three D. printers for chocolate we have three D. printers four. Can be made of sugar just powdered sugar so those kinds of things are coming out so let's go through some examples here. One of the most well known examples of mass customization with three D. printing was used. Comp income combination with digital design technology is the case of a line this was actually a. Business case that was an in Stanford University Business School and it was a it was a. Business concept that was pitched there and today this company has made over one hundred million molds so what they've done is they've taken the ability to. Take three scanning technology combine that with three D. printing and with customized software to be able to make these custom made custom fitting clearer liners for repositioning Pete and it's the largest installation of these three D. three D. printing machines in the world and they've done over one hundred million dollars So this is a and again they're all directly three point these these are liners what they're doing is the three D. printing. A mold which is then used to. Shape this clear plastic which is like P M M a polymath element accolade. Another example is in Foreigner which is in hearing aids again customized custom made hearing aid shells matched with custom electronics so the patient in this case goes to an audiologist office. They get an impression of their. Ear. Canal that is placed on a three D. scanning device about the size of a bush radio. Spin scanning is done the scan is then sent over the Internet to a design studio they take that scan and from that they can design the shell the shells are printed on thirty three D. printing machines and while that's going on. Electronics there are optimized for that particular patient's hearing deficiency are selected they are then fitted into the shell so from Scan to finished delivered part is about a week to ten days. And the divan this where over ten million personalise hearing so another very very good example of mass customization. And that was outside. Not internal to the human body. With the advent of metal three D. printing. What used to be parts that were originally cast for hip implants are today being printed in metal So here's an example of this company Lima corporate partnering with Arcam which is the maker of these electron beam metal twenty printing machines and they've taken advantage of the fact that taking powered metal titanium in this case we can. Print these cuts with this kind of very. Entanglement porous structure which is actually very useful because when it's implanted in the body the bone can go into these poor and integrate very well and into lock with the. The implant and this was something that was not possible to be done only in order to get that they would have to do a lot of work they would have to cast make a metal casting. And then they would have to had a different layer of. Powdered metal get it bonded on to create this kind of a structure but now this can all be printed. Similar to that you can also do this where someone who's undergone a head trauma for instance no need say an implant a metal implant. Taking the CAT scan or the M.R.I. imaging of that person we can design a custom made. Custom implant that can then be printed as a mesh in thirteen instead of taking some standard off the shelf material and cutting it in shaping it we can make a perfectly fitting. Structure that is custom made for the person so. This is actually even all the information this number is even much bigger so they've done over forty thousand of these in Europe where they have implanted these these kind of hiccups so this technology is no. It's not proliferating across a variety of other anatomical structures there's a recent example that K.-Mart where in in China they did a. They implanted titanium ribs there was another recent example that just came out with a portion of the rib cage where they combine titanium and a and a softer material like a polymer So what these things are going to do is has as this goes forward and as these kinds of technologies get accepted by the approval organizations like if the in the U.S. Ultimately you can you will see these kinds of manufacturing facilities located likely very close to the locations where these parts are needed ultimately they might make their way even inside the maybe the maybe a manufacturing facility within a hospital that's actually making these things printing them on demand so that's going to dramatically disrupt supply chains. Another example is in dental implants once again the ability to take metal powder and be able to print. And so here you can see various types of dental implants can be just printed from powder instead of having to go and make castings and do a lot of machining and finishing and in Europe have done over fifteen million of these have been made in implant. So once they go this way. It's this is the it's it's very likely going to be one way march in the sense that they're not going to go back to their old ways of doing things this is All Things are going to be made in the future and they're going to be printed on demand so again there will be customized the be printed on demand will be very short turnaround time will be. You know inventories will be shrunk and supply chains are going to be dramatically shortened. Quick example here this is the formula Group B. and this was. Using three D. printing like this is a mammoth very large machine called the mammoth still covering machine the printer the entire body shell and this was done in one week three weeks from design to fully finished preprinted car body so again dramatically compressing the the the lead time and taking on multiple steps and being able to make this in a single sending is going to be you know the wave of the future companies like local motors are doing this already the setting up setting up distributed local factories they call these micro factories where they have a large robotic device that's extruding laying down a bit of molten plastic infuser carbon fiber. So this is what it looks like once it's all printed and then the the next thing they will do is they will do some machining on it so they can do some machining and finishing and ultimately in. Printing completed in forty four hours and another twenty four hours they complete the milling they added the motor they added the wheels and everything and they drove the car around during this show this one of the largest manufacturing trade shows the I.M.T. has shown in Chicago they did it during the show itself they were able to do this complete a sprint. And actually finish the car and drive it so local Motors is now setting up these kinds of micro factories across the U.S. They've done one I believe. The done one in Tennessee. And there's a few others that they are setting up across the U.S.. Boeing is doing this again in the case of Boeing they've been able to take. What was once multiple metal parts. Joined together by welding long many multiple steps may have to go to multiple different vendors in sort of doing that they took the the design the collapse it into one part and they were able to print their part in plastic directly so they're actually printing tens of thousands of parts and putting them on their aircraft and have done away with you know aluminum pieces that would have to be welded so once again they've disrupted the supply chain and what they've done in this case Boeing has by developing this process in-house and. Qualifying these parts as substitutes for previously parts previously made out of aluminum. Now they have set up their own certified manufacturing suppliers where all the suppliers are doing is they have their polymer three D. printing machines laser centering and they're printing those parts according to Boeing specs and supplying those parts to Boeing so. You know again in this case Boeing has managed to to collapse the supply chain to have just a single. Step where you have a series of sort of you know certified suppliers that are providing these parts. For Ga of years you know G.'s doing this in an aircraft engines Here's one example this is a this is a myth. Example of dramatic supply chain collapse this was this is a fuel combustion nozzle and what it's doing is it's There are nineteen of these in every leap X. engine and already G. aviation's got a backlog of some six thousand plus engines. This new leap X. engine they've already got a backlog of six thousand orders. Or originally this part would have to be made with. In some instances seen eighteen let's say in this case two eleven parts eleven different parts would have to be welded together and then they would have to do a lot of different operations and testing and gee was able to take metal tree printing and collapse that into one single part make it in one single piece and in addition to doing that because of the advances in capability they were able to introduce complex internal passages that would previously not be possible and in doing that they were able to increase the efficiency of the engine by I think two or three percent the combustion efficiency the the the manner in which the fuel air mixture was. Atomized and sprayed and that led to a dramatic improvement in the overall efficiency of the engine so now they're not going back this is the only way they're going to do it and they've made a fifty million dollar investment in a factory up the road here in in Auburn Alabama and they're going to be making these. So you know for each engine they need nineteen and they plan to make one hundred thousand of these. Per year and they've even gone beyond us now so they've tested out a number of other parts they're doing a lot of things that we won't even hear about for another year or two years. But another spectacular example of what they've done. In this in this type of work is there they had a turboprop engine. And in the store were probably engine for which the design has not changed in thirty years they were able to take eight hundred fifty five parts. And threw treaty printing model three D. printing collapse them to twelve. So imagine what that does to the supply chain they're able to collapse eight hundred fifty five parts to all parts and now that's the only way they're going to do it. So in many cases like this they're pulling in there they are they're basically pulling in the technology in-house and they are dramatically. Collapsing the supply chain and shortening it to the point where now. All they would need is primarily I would say three or four capabilities they need the printers they need the powder they need the ability to post process the parts afterwards because all of these parts of the manufacture have to undergo some kind of heat treatment in a furnace and machining. Those are the major things that would need all the other knowledge the expertise they have in-house so they're pulling all of this and one of the things they're able to do by doing this is not only making it much more faster much more efficient. Improving that the productivity the took were great but also by doing this they're able to choke off their competitors and that's one of the things they've done by. The recent acquisitions that they have to they've made the two companies OK So let's take a look at. How to spend other maybe five or ten minutes more try to finish this up. If you look at the forecast of what really different forecasts but there's no question that the industry is growing you can see from twenty fourteen to twenty twenty twenty twenty projections by one of the most well respected sources the woman is report is saying that this industry is going to go to about twenty two billion by twenty twenty twenty and a very significant portion of that is going to be metal to be pretty. Other examples here's a Credit Suisse and they've got a different estimate here they're saying you know they've got a much lower estimate on the order of about twelve billion here a combination of systems materials direct part supplies and service and parts and then if you this is again not very clear here but if you look at twenty twenty three with about close to twenty billion projected. The largest components are going to be aerospace medical who are going to see a pretty big revolution in medical and medical field especially medical implants dental implants is about another four billion so three and a half billion each in aerospace and medical about four point three billion in dental and then another one that's projected and we'll have to see that really turns out is in personal or educational to another four point three billion there. One of the key things to note in manufacturing is if you if you look at a typical cost curve in conventional manufacturing So here is the cost per part and here the number of units so if you look at conventional we see that in the at the very low numbers the cost of tooling dominates and that's where the cost of the part goes up but as you scale up and you make thousands to hundreds of thousands to millions of parts then you know it flattens out and here's where it's the material and. Labor costs that are going to dominate and the tooling is the cost of tooling is spread out over the large number of parts and if you compare that to additive manufacturing there is always some kind of a break even point where if you have number of parts to be made below this breakeven number then it's useful to. Apply additive manufacturing if it's higher than that then it's better to go with a conventional mass production method so what we additive manufacturing vendors are doing is. They're striving to push this line down. How to make Lee what you want to be able to do is push this line down to the point where it's close to this or even below this and that's when it becomes really game changing when the cost of mass production through an additive manufacturing of three D. printing approach is has. As cheap or even less or expend less costly than. To convention. And I think we're going to see that but in order for this to happen they're going to have to be very some very significant investments made by companies with deep pockets that are going to produce these kind of industrial grade high speed machines because right now today one of the major drawbacks of three D. printing and Additive Manufacturing is the machines are fast enough and there are always going to be inherent limitations on how fast you can go. Just because of the fact that you're building up objects layer by layer. So in terms of. How this can impact various organizations we can look at. This axis here where we're saying there's a high degree of supply chain change and here there's no supply chain so this is the axis which is showing the degree of supply chain change and this is the axis which shows there's a high degree of product change versus no product change so this was a paper that was put out by the light which showed that there are four types of you know there's four kinds of models that organizations can see themselves taking when they employ had him in effect in the first part is where there is no supply chain change and no product change so in this case companies are just. They are they are looking at the capabilities of additive manufacturing three D. printing but they're not really adopting them in a big way. They might use them in some limited cases. For design and prototyping production custom tooling. And they might have might use these for some supplementary capability. On the other hand if you look at that to where this supply chain chain evolution here the key enabling. Capability for matter to visit manufacturing closer to the point of use so this is something we'll come back and see again but it allows greater responsibility responsiveness and flexibility. You don't have to transport the goods over a large distance you can bring the manufacturing capability much closer to where it's the parts or the parts are actually going to be needed and what that leads to then is a reduction in the required inventory so you don't have to store a lot of parts it makes it more flexible you can actually. Parts on demand and that's the advantage of this back to in part three we have a high degree of product change not so much supply chain change in this case what we're seeing is the capabilities of additive manufacturing three D. printing are being exploited to come up with new product designs new and innovative product designs that were previously not available or not possible so and it allows no customization we saw examples of mass customization or you so it allows customization to do customer requirements increase product functionality so we're able to make advanced designs that are higher efficiency we saw than the example of. The fuel combustion nozzle for G.E. market responsiveness and the zero cost increase complexity that means that. We are fully exploiting the capability of three D. printing and additive manufacturing to create increasingly complex designs and there's no additional cost of. The last one here is business model evolution we're using a high degree of supply chain change and a high degree of product change. So in this case we can actually go to true mass customization we can manufacture at the point of use and we get what's called supply chain this intermediation where we're now collapsing the supply chain we're knocking out a number of. Supply chain step supply chain vendors and it gives customer empowerment we're now the customer can come in and say OK I want my part to have. This kind of. You know little design tweak or this kind of color scheme so. One example here is being W. is using this kind of approach where the. Using a three D. printing technique to print. Portions of a car so for instance like. Flaps that are found you know. And trim that's found on their vehicles they're able to print some of those with a you know pretty printing plastic polymer three D. printing technology and the customer has the has the ability to pick the color scheme or some thing or design radiation so they're able to do that. As I said earlier there's going to be an increasing degree of. Digitalisation that's going to be seen in the coming years and as a result of that we're going to see that. We're going to see. You know we'll never we'll never quite reach the economy of scale one but three D.. Printing will lower the minimum economic scale for volume production so. That is going to be enabled by. Improvements in automation in robotics and. In the digital infrastructure that's going to handle the entire. Process chain from start to finish who mentioned this earlier we're going to have on demand manufacturing so this is going to lead to stalk less inventory models will result in smaller supply chains customization that also I mentioned earlier they're going to be new retail models that are going to emerge as a result of this and the consumer is now going to play a greater role in the product design process. And then the lastly the location elasticities so supply chains will become more location elastic they'll bring the many factual closer to the customer and that will not only improve the interaction but also the delivery times are going to go down significantly it's going to have an impact on transportation and logistics and I'll come to that in just a few minutes here. And so it's mention here transportation of your finished goods and that's going to alter the global trade flows and logistics so this is something that truly has the potential to disrupt the way supply chains especially transportation and logistics how they operate today. So I'm going to go through a few slides quickly here. What are going to be some of the impacts that we're going to see of additive manufacturing three D. printing and supply chains. As I mentioned earlier there's going to be mass customization there's going to be a greater degree of involvement by the customer in the design process it's going to lead to greater democratization of design and it's also going to you know enable greater degree of postponement. Supply chain sustainability So there's various arguments here the fact that you're adding material only where you need it rather than taking a big chunk of material and chipping it away will allow greater efficiency in the use of materials many of these materials are going to be recyclable so many of the materials today that we find in consumer grade three D. printers are a materials like B. L.A. This is a recyclable materials so many of these materials will be once a parts are printed and they're used and they're no longer being used they'll be able to be recycled and brought back in and to be reused again it's going to lead to the centralization of manufacturing for sure. And this is going to lead to local sourcing and reassuring we're already seeing that happen today. And the other major impact that could have on supply chains is the ability to reach remote and disconnected markets so instead of having to set up a huge factory where you have a whole diversity of machines with multi tens of millions of dollars upfront investment required you could have a three D. printer that's going to do ninety to ninety five percent of the work in making the part and then there may be some additional work needed to make that into a finished useful component so this is we're going to see a. Proliferation of these technologies across the globe as the cost of these equipment goes down and I think then the key thing is going to be are the feedstock materials that go to these printers are they going to be transported or are they going to be locally sourced are going to be locally manufactured. Another huge impact is going to be reduction of complexity a short a couple examples where you had who original parts that were made of multiple different subcomponents that were then assembled or joined together three D. printing enables. Unitized design a single part piece design and that's going to then reduce assembly. And that's going to collapse the supply chain number of parts are going to be reduced and as a result of that the supply base is going to be shrunk as well. So along with new design possibilities because of being able to design the whole. Assembly as a single piece and being able to embed features that were previously not possible new designs are going to be possible and that's going to again. Lead to some pretty dramatic changes in the supply chain. Printing on demand is going to lead to reduction in stalking. We're going to be shipping parts as software not as physical parts so there's going to be transmission of designs through the cloud over secure lines and things like you know Amazon. Cloud services things like that those are going to be used with a secure. Transmission it's going to lead to digital inventories and change an inventory mix so this is going to have a pretty significant impact on transportation and logistics. There might be a pretty significant collapse in warehousing and this is why companies like U.P.S. are already getting on board and. Using three D. printers and printing parts on demand and they're saying they've set up facilities in Louisville Kentucky and Singapore and Europe. Value added activities are also going to be impacted this so this is going to lead to quicker product changes small scale production. Capital requirements are going to change I mentioned earlier in sort of setting up large complex factories who will have smaller micro factories with maybe a fleet of three D. printers and some additional equipment that will be required to finish the parts it's going to lead to greater collaborative many factoring where there's going to be greater degree of collaboration between the customer and the manufacturer customer is going to play a much greater role in defining how the final part gets made and we're going to see greater number of these kinds of services three D. printing services it's going to Nabl. Not just the big players but. Entrepreneurs to be able to establish three D. printing services there's already a number of them out there. Both from the consumer side like Shapeways. And then there are those that are doing it on the industrial scale and we're seeing literally every week we're seeing announcements of companies that have been around for many decades or even one hundred plus years jumping in and making investments to set up these kinds of three D. printing service centers because they don't want to they don't want to be left behind and if they don't move they're going to be left behind and their sources of revenue are going to disappear because this is going to happen. And that's going to lead to destructive competition reduce barriers to entry. And we're also going to see an increasing number of crowd funded startups and that's going to lead to the ability to supply niche markets. So we're going to see greater amounts of. Entrepreneurship greater amount numbers of start ups that are going to arise by being able to take advantage of these lower cost more sophisticated three D. Printing Systems that are going to be available today right now the cost is fairly prohibitive for the common. People to get in and. Open. Innovative startups because you need significant upfront investment but that's going to change. I'm going to skip over those because that's just in caps EDITION the last couple of slides one thing we're going to see is digitalisation of manufacturing it's really fascinating to me because I've been in this field for twenty seven years but what we're seeing is a period like unlike any other we're seeing a convergence of three D. printing additive manufacturing internet of things design software cloud computing data science and robotics and artificial intelligence all really coming together and this is going to lead to a couple of things is going to be too. Much more sophisticated machines that are going to provide really high quality parts that are going to match or surpass parts that are made by conventional manufacturing technologies so that's a big thing but the other thing is going to lead to is extremely smart factories. And you're going to have and this is already happening with companies like G.E. and many other companies you can have factories with fleets of machines that will have embedded sensors and the sensors are continuously picking up data and feeding them to your data archive and that data is being interrogated it's being. You know models of the process of being built and that's going to lead to early or predictive defect detection it's going to lead to models where these machines are not becoming to become much more reliable and a breakdown is going to be predicted so that those machines can be fixed. Before it even goes down. And. These are the other key thing is these additive manufacturing techniques are extremely complex the physics of these. Needs is very very very complex and it's extremely hard to make reliable create physical models physics based models that's going to change with the collection of large amounts of data combined with their designs and they are this is going to allow us to make these machines the these processes much more reliable the other thing we're going to see is the emergence of distributed manufacturing collaboration so there's going to be partnerships and these are happening again by the day by the week where you have companies like you Piers tying up with A.C.P. and with other partners like Airbus H.P. start of service they're forming partnerships because they're getting ready for industrialisation of additive manufacturing three D. printing for instance there's a piece working with twenty eight going to Beijing companies documents product design manufacturing and logic so the idea is to cover the entire chain the entire process chain the entire supply chain from conception of a design to the delivery of a finished serialized product that's all going to be completely seamlessly covered through these kinds of partnerships so there's intense competition. And partnerships that are being announced here and so you know example you P.S. is open three printing centers I said in Louisville in Singapore they were planning to open a few months ago to apply and open one in Europe this is probably already open now and the other thing I mentioned and this is again happening is well established companies global O.E.M.'s are investing literally hundreds of millions of dollars opening up distributed manufacturing centers. They already have decades of experience. And knowledge to know what it takes to make parts that are going to be industrially acceptable. Parts that are going to be mission critical parts are going to go into aircraft parts that are going to go into automobile or more automobiles parts they're going to go into you know weapon systems for mill for military applications they already have they know what it takes to get all of these parts qualified now they are taking advantage of the capabilities of metal and plastic to the printing the making investments and they're not setting of dedicated factories and they already have customers. Now they're going to. Induce those customers and convince those customers to stay with them and utilize these new technologies so we're going to see a pretty radical change in this. Digital manufacturing work so this is really all I have to present today thank you for your time and you know happy to answer any questions and no meaning for ten minutes thanks a lot. Writer that's an excellent question so there's a number of studies out there and it really defers. Depending upon the particular. Material system and the more you're doing so for instance plastics which is metals now and plastics you can you can actually you can prove that in many cases the part about fusion technique of powders being fused by a laser is if you compare the. Energy efficiency relative to say injection molding and you also look at. Reuse or wastage of material that they can be fairly competitive quite competitive in metal three D. printing today there is different schools of thought there are some people that are trying to prove that they're more energy efficient but then there are others that have shown that if you compare. Metal twenty printing to casting there's really no comparison in fact the metal tripping technologies are highly energy inefficient. But I think one of the key things that you have to look at in totality is the. The lead time the compression in lead time and the ability to make parts on demand especially when you're looking at small lot small to medium lot and that's where the metal tree printing can win because you don't have to make tooling you don't have to sit and wait multiple tens of weeks to get tooling made. That's an excellent point so yes indeed it's going to take some time for these technologies to proliferate across developing countries and I think that. With already large installed industrial infrastructure it's going to take some time especially because the technologies may not all over there may not be as advanced However. I think that the impact is going to occur more in. Consumer Applications or applications related to human health so you're going to see the impact in. You know I think you're going to see impact in things like. Medical biomedical implants and. There are the the ability to make these parts quickly and at a competitive cost to something that's been traditionally cast and machine. Is is going to make a compelling case similarly like in dental implants and even somewhat simpler than that would be things like you know hearing aids and you know other assistive devices for instance and some developing countries there's already significant use of three D. printing for prosthetics and for you know assistive devices for people that have limb deformities or they have you know their amputees things like that I think those places it's going to make a make an impact because. That's a great that's a great question so what's really interesting here is you have a series of well established companies that arose in the late eighty's during the one nine hundred ninety S. and they've become primarily technology providers. They provide equipment they provide software that controls the equipment the price offered the law allows you to prepare the data but now are you seeing an entirely new collective of companies that are coming up to address the cybersecurity QUESTION So these these are obviously these are companies that have expertise in cybersecurity that are now. Aligning themselves with this very important need and I think that need as you mentioned is a very important and critical need and it becomes even more important especially for military applications where you one of the things that the Department of Defense wants to do is remote manufacturing the want to place these three D. printers are more bases they might be C. bases they might be an aircraft carriers and all you're going to do is transmit you have an spare part that needs to be made for a fighter aircraft that's on an aircraft carrier and they want the file to be transmitted and the file is received. It's all right fine and so in those kind of cases the cybersecurity concern important so there's a whole host of new companies that are emerging that are addressing this this this need and along with that you're going to actually see new file formats the basic file format for three D. printing has remained unchanged for over thirty years. And now there's going to be new kinds of secure and encrypted file formats that are going to come about. And along with that I think you're going to see implementation of block change technology in three D. printing. Yes. Yes. So that has long been a shortcoming but as these machines have gotten better as more investments have been made in R. and D. both by the end users the big players like the G.'s in the bread and Whitney's in the Rolls Royces and other major companies in those piece and other industrial manufacturing along with the machine vendors themselves and along with that another critic critical component has been the materials that go into these machines those materials have also been improved as a result of that we're getting better and better properties today so in limited cases with a limited. Shall I say. Menu card of materials today you can actually get properties in in some cases even better than conventionally cast in forged metals so that that's happening. But it is definitely an important issue how do you control defects because. One of the big differences between say. Manufacturing process like casting where you pour liquid metal into a into a more than allowed to solidify versus building up an object by additive is an additive manufacturing you're putting down thousands of layers every layer gives you the opportunity to introduce a defect and once a defect is there it's going to be embedded deep inside the park so today a major major area of focus is the effect control and mitigation and for that we're going to need ever more sophisticated machines but it's an intense focus area today. So until we get there we're going to still quite a bit of work to do yes. Yeah that's a very good question I think. The modern three D. printing factory is going to be highly automated. It's going to. Have. Very few people actually running it but the individuals that are going to be running it are going to have a fixed a very unique skill set this person on the one hand has going to have to be very much aware of manufacturing in a physical sense but on the other hand this this individual is going to also have to be equally comfortable in the digital space being able to handle digital models being able to manipulate digital data being able to do some on the spot analysis and so it's going to be. It's going to be an entirely different kind of very different kind of workforce and today there the demand for workforce in additive manufacturing is extremely high. It's really really high and there simply aren't enough people aren't enough new graduates or people in industry that can address this need and and probably don't even properly architected training programs or. Degree programs that can that can properly completely approach or address this issue so recently Penn State insta started a masters in in out of the manufacturing similar things are going to happen across as this demand continues to rise yes. And it's. So yes there have been some studies based upon. Technologies that are available today. And people have. Conducted those studies to demonstrate how much of a speed up you do you need authentic speed up or need one hundred Expedia up over state of the art to truly begin to Trenton conventional mass production. So. There have there have been and I think it would be fair to say that you need an at least ten X. to fifty Expedia up to do approach those but like you correctly pointed out there are going to be inherent limitations based upon the physics of the process as to how fast you can actually really go. Along with the fact that in order to achieve very good faithful three dimensional. Rendition of the designs that match the actual the physical the physical designs that actually match the the actual. God design that you need to build in very very thin layer so there's this tradeoff. So I think there's a stem goes by we're going to see more hybrid hybrid technologies we're going to see. And we're already seeing some of these new machines new technologies that are coming up that are combining additive would subtractive So this additive with laser and then they subtract that with milling people are doing some of that to do approach the quality that you can get with conventional then you're seeing older machines that are having up to forty lasers over time we're going to see a machines that are going to have maybe twenty thirty one hundred lasers making a sweep like of single bar making a pass like what you see in scanners right you know like. Document scanners you know a bar that most similar to that you're going to have an array of laser diodes moving across and then to find entire part of it but ultimately there will be a limit and it's going to be really interesting to see how much time can you eat away and how much can you really what's the fundamental limit that you can reach and these are going to be dependent upon different methods right whether you're melting plastic in a bead or your fusing up out of bed or you're printing a binder or things like that. But yeah I think it's going to be it's going to be really interesting I think in ten years we're going to see in Darley different machines than what they are today. Yes. Right. Right yes. So the feedstock material the material that goes into these these systems has to be of a certain material composition it has to be certain quality in the case of part of it you need pounders you need powders of certain particle size some certain fineness certain regularity so yes there are some up front costs today clearly no question the feedstock material for industrial grade three D. printers the material cost is high no doubt compared to buying material lot of a you know McMaster car catalog or a Granger catalog but. That also has to do with the fact that the demand was not quite there and so the companies that produce the materials were not heavily involved but over the past ten years we've seen major companies like dark and deep on and solving and you know powder metal producers that are producing metal powder for entirely different applications they see this as a growing market and they're jumping in and so we're going to see economies of scale and we're going to see these material costs come down once these things become really commodities they become. Regular materials that everybody is using We're going to see the cost come down probably by a factor of ten but it's going to take some time. But it also gives an opportunity for making money off recurring revenues he seldom machine and then it's the it's the printer and the ink model so a lot of companies are going to have that proprietary materials optimized materials that only they will sell that they will guarantee if you use this material you're going to get a quality product and they're going to make a mark up but there's a threat to that because a lot of people want an open architecture machine they want to be able to put in whatever material they want and run so if there's going to be a tug of war there also. Last question I suppose. Three years. Part three. So. Just. Now if. You live here if your. Child. Just kept. Yes Well you know in companies living in countries like Singapore Singapore is making massive investments in three D. printing massive I mean they've got literally hundreds of millions of dollars going in because they see that as part of the future. Transportation logistics. Of freight by shipping has collapsed so they see this and they also see an opportunity by being a regional. Hub and a regional area off expertise that can serve the local you know Asian region so they're making huge investments that in order to make those huge investments and support them in the future they need a workforce and how do you get the workforce you get the workforce by getting young people like yourself get very comfortable with consume a great three D. printers understand how the technology works and from there climbed up to the levels of sophistication to to the point so that by the time you are coming out of college you're very well aware of how three D. printing works you see that as another manufacturing method or the manufacturing method and then you're ready to enter the workforce and be able to use the much more sophisticated machines that cost you know hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars so I think that's kind of the strategy that they are they're employing. That's. Right. Thank you very much to. Thank you thank you all for for listening and for your patience appreciate it.