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>> OK that's a hard act to follow but I'll. Outline I guess. What they would like to do what I think John John I would do is to talk about. US Q On the nation. From the point of view of Cuba not of the government. Of Cuba the interest of Cuba in general the Cuban state.

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The first thing that I want to emphasize which is. Perhaps counter-intuitive but perhaps not is that the nomination of relations between Cuba and the United States. Is quite depends on Cuba. That is Cuba is not only everything Tim. The U.S. policy but Cuba or could also be an agent.

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For see the hand of the United States I take as a point of reference although a much larger country in different parts of the world but a country that suffered a lot because. Of the war. In Vietnam Vietnam. Vietnam and in the late one nine hundred seventy S.

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or was ostracized by the international community because it had invaded Cambodia in one thousand and seventy nine which time is led by a complete genocide. By the many thanks he needs it now and barked on its economic. Transformation. It's still ahead so you don't really buy that economic transformation none the less and by the late one nine hundred eighty S.

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Europe was already that. Captured by the opportunities if I'm in any area of the world that of course was then and much of today very dynamic economically and even by. Early in the first Clinton administration of the United States and yet no one malign its Nations again you know Vietnam is a country of seventy five seventy seventy five million people with potentially much richer than Cuba.

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Will ever be. One important distinction. In terms of U.S. reaction to Cuba is that no U.S. president so far this one has the will at all but. President Clinton perhaps could have found. That it will except that there was no with him when Clinton announced that normalization of relations with Vietnam Senator John McCain with all his credibility standing next to him.

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So I mean we're missing the senator is willing to. Stand next to the president of the United States that follows a more realistic in the end. Much more encouraging policy towards a democratic rather than the current US. Going back to the idea that Hubert can. Also be an agent not just a victim.

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Of the United States can be an agent for change in U.S. policy we've tracked tab. Two instances in U.S. Cuban relations the first instance Astro was more. Of that and that is the Carter administration in the late seventy's showed the leader. Of the Cuban government and the US Administration way out.

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An agenda of change and and meet. And start making progress in that. In that direction in that effort and then the south might say it's here let's say this in one thousand nine hundred but I think that it more likely that because Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in the November nineteenth election.

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The counter factual history what would have happened if. There had been a second quarter ministration like to have the agenda would have concluded with Asian nations it is true they think it's time the Cuban government has. Been set an incentive. To normalize relations with Cuba because they're the.

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Others and the Cuban leadership are especially having the ego that he does have and the sense is for destiny he saw Cuba he saw that as an opportunity to have a Cuba play the United States and the Soviet Union against each other like India you know a bit larger than Cuba.

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With the good for so much of the Cold War. Because both superpowers were very interested. In. That context is very much change has been very much change cities. In nineteen since the end of the Cold War Nonetheless in the early ninety nine in the. In the in the during the first Clinton administration.

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When the State Department has a policy of calibrated measures to respond to X. Y. or Z. and specify have an I might do that was an opportunity lost because in the Unity nineties. In the shot that went through human society after the end of the war the end of this subsidies cetera the collapse of socialism of actually existing socialist.

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All the things to put human society in the shot put meat in Cuba in it in shock and at the time something really interesting ideas within the context of the one party state were were put forward including opening up the economy with. These small and cheap prices some interesting political ideas such as separating functions not powers meaning that she did would be to be in the end of all.

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Charges in Cuba and changing the name of the Communist Party to the. Party of the Cuban nation of opening a bit. Of lead in Mexico. But none of these things came to pass so here like the second Carter term that never was what would have happened if in fact they had opened up the economy and some of these admittedly less medical political changes we don't know but the fact is that the US government was on the record saying we will respond with calibrated measures to changes in how.

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So I France forward from the early ninety's ninety's. To. Chill I thirty first two thousand and six when. He put a plan on the official transfer temporary transfer of power there and Castro and seven other men. And I underscore that now because of gender but the fact that it has taken eight men to take over the functions that.

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Was performed in Cuba it could be that if you and so talented that you could do it all but I don't think so to me that initial were nearly eighteen years old is just that has a lot of problems that the real power and so grown Castro is he.

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Has inherited for a while we don't know as it were going to come after but I do think that. He has been improving but I think that probably from growing on down nobody wants to. But what can we say about you know. Your own path through a beer is.

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That an institution building he has built the homes to importance and to Cuba which is the military that doesn't need me particularly happy because of. The military needs to be in its place it's not all over the place. But nonetheless it is a serious situation it is a professional military even if that's the same time it is the most political military human history.

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Because it is so big so with so many Soon the is. Chilling. You know doesn't have charismatic authority and usually people say he will be a good government because of my callings Thank God he doesn't have charismatic and so yeah I think we have too much of that he has also built the party which that already is a.

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Different level than the military is fragile than the military but nonetheless to the extent that the Cuban Communist Party functions along the lines of all the soon to be acquired it has been because it will strengthen that that is a plus sign for. You know I don't know.

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For the first time in ten years they Connelly's we discussed the particular I didn't that it would be discussed anyway is inconsequential for the time but it is used in Jordan and Cuba but in different ways it is revolutionary that the means we discuss because it is the big elephant in the room and no wouldn't dare to speak about.

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Public. Realm I found rather. Out of character and even is it is assumed you're here that the fact that there's so much for all to hear and nobody in the two most important speeches he has delivered and thankfully well he doesn't give a lot of speeches and guys would be rather short you know people say he's not a good orator and said that that's probably true but you can't put up with almost anyone for half an hour.

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Here that this speech on the. Recall seeing that Trade Union Congress member and then most significant. On December second. Downing the anniversary of the founding of the going on. There and he and the others. Down there were shipwrecked a bit here in order and then made their way out through this year and I ain't tryna day that if you missed call on Forces Day and the day that they were celebrating Traditionally there's Perth you know he was a it was a no show he ended his speeches by saying we were poor he not one of them worked there it's.

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Not that Chavez was picking up but doing what they're inside him most and I would I thought rather pointedly at the C.D.C. the Trade Union Congress he just said we were poor and on December second he said be right for you that we will work so like I said to people in Miami and you know in principle be right who are you there almost anyone all Cubans could sign up to that are symbolic but this is a political leadership that has the right and simply.

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Not to. Overlook perhaps what is important to this discussion is that twice he has offered. Has asked for a dollar with the United States this isn't something really for grown in two thousand and one at the end of two thousand and thirty two thousand and one he said it we you know you said to Washington.

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You better deal with there because I'm going to be hard my interpretation then was that he was really saying Please settle this before my brother that is because I'm going to have my hands full you play better to have the lights. In this one eye on that. That.

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I want to bring up kids. That chair is the only relationship that has made it a point to say the chair is his his successor in terms of the one thing that. I'm sure from what I gather and what people say challenges your own since you can't stand each other hand Charis known had had he had he had the confirmation that it was coming now.

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To the lesser of two weeks you know that Senator second my guess is he would go on he didn't have to worry about being reelected the next day in this window but that he wasn't really ready to stand for ever perhaps ever ever ever ever be ready to stand next to your own at the scene.

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So my question or my hypothetical scenario going forward if it only becomes the permanent. Leader of Cuba even in this life. What is is a lie and is the only. Platform for digital a seat for all of this excess or this to open up the economy. That kind of.

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Don't ask good policy doesn't sit very well that kind of too many international policy foreign policy that. Has followed I go back to Vietnam Vietnam went to the Nonaligned Movement meeting in Havana in September. And then went home and continued conducting foreign policy the way it has conducted foreign policy over the past twenty five years which is finding foreign investors and sending.

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National interests abroad defined as it's economic interest right now so why don't we I'm saying as people see the. This is going to have a lot of influence on Cuba without fear and I see yes and no. Yes of course Cuba is dependent on business where nobody. But let's not forget that chalice is also dependent on Cuba for all the doctors and teachers and then to send nurses and not to mention the military that may change.

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Chairs built his legitimacy from two thousand and two one hundred Shawnees that Huber allow. Business where you know who it's human capital and there has been some estimates in me by humans Inc You know I have not seen it published I've been told about this very tragic if you take that value of the human capital and international monitors really.

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The bill between oil and the human capital that Cuba is writing it's a lot more equal than others. What I'm saying is that. If there's a real economic opening if you read on let me let me do all of myself a little bit and think about the positive scenarios if there is.

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Real economic reform in Cuba and there is a quote unquote normalization reform policy to Cuba so that there's a bit of a distance between have Anna and get out and class and others. That's an opportunity an opportunity United States government perhaps this won't happen until after this administration is gone but there is an opportunity that the United States government should not pass by and neither should the Cuban American in fact of the Cuban American community might then with an old.

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When in the Cuban economy. Cousins and uncles and aunts and siblings all over the I didn't start saying if you can lend me ten thousand dollars I can open up a little business and the people in Miami say well you can because some Oracle there there might be some changes being expressed in the possibly express and if you can.

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Just to conclude let me say that. Human United States have been in a tense polar is all or nothing situation. For decades and decades and that it's. To be polarize. Negotiation and compromise going to the middle which doesn't necessarily mean exactly moving from the extremes but current U.S. policy is really all or nothing so it's really more as Asian for us US policy for it.

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Showed you. Is prepare for the worst possible scenario or let me take action. For the for the least likely scenario which is a collapse that leads immediately to a democratic transition a collapse more than likely it will be violence. That is not good for any. Human political stability has been sued by the United States since the nineteenth century given this the history of the world Lucian and the history of US Cuba the variations.

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Cuban political stability the hands on this is a function of how peacefully. Cuba can. Extricate itself from the from the current situation and in a situation that I believe the bench leads to democracy that becomes more acceptable to humans and opens possibilities of. Improving relations with the West.

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And I think like your guest said I think you have U.S. government officials in this government not hopeful about but in the future administrations. Of either party I don't they should be looking forward to the windows of opportunity that are not all or nothing but that may lead us in more constructive.

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Engagement since we thank you.