So on behalf of the sand and
School of International Affairs and

its policy research arm the Center for
International Strategy technology and

policy let me welcome you all
today to our panel discussion on

the contemporary situation in the Middle
East which arguably is at a pivotal moment

in the history of the modern
Middle East and across the region and

really only about three and a half years
after the onset of the Arab Spring

it appears that most of the movements
that began as peaceful protests against

authoritarian regimes have either fizzled
or devolved into violent uprisings

take Egypt right the keystone state in
the region traditionally has gone from

toppling the Mubarak regime to
overthrowing the democratically

elected Muslim Brotherhood government
marking a three hundred sixty degree turn

in just a matter of a few years Israel and
Palestine as you know just in gay and

the Palestinian Authority Mohsin
gauged in recent conflict India now

they're faced with even bigger questions
of what to do next after the fatigue runs

its course in Syria and Libya in
Libya the protest movements morphed

into becoming very complex violent and.

And very intractable and
protected civil conflicts civil and

armed conflicts and in Syria the civil
war has been so vicious that about

half of the twenty two million people
have been displaced or are left homeless.

And not only is there political
instability in the regimes and

on the streets but
any semblance of the meaning of borders

geographically speaking psychologically
politically normatively

seem thrown up been
thrown torn asunder and

the very legitimacy of borders and
sovereignty seems that.

In question.

In the political vacuums that have
stepped into this challenge and

the growing sectarianism and

the ambivalence of the West have together
created the fodder if you will for

the most violent forms of Islamic
fundamentalism to take root.

And as evidenced by President Obama's
speech last week this actually

means something to the United States
now we can debate and discuss how and

what that actually means but
there's no question these days that

what's going on there involves
more than just protecting U.S.

personnel on the ground and it is
against this dramatically changing and

volatile regional landscape that some
basic questions are being raised here

as those of us as far as far away from
the region here in the United States

are left scratching our heads how
did we get here where are we headed

Do we have a strategy to
get where we want to go.

What are the implications associated
with the crisis of state in the absence

of borders in the region these days
who are the regional intrastate groups

influencing the environment the events
on the ground what are the sources and

limitations of their influence and most
specifically in light of President Obama's

recent speech and articulated strategy for
refocusing on the region who are U.S.

partners on the ground in Syria and
Iraq in particular and

how can we engage others our allies in
particular in the region in a strategy

of degrading if not an islet
NG ISIS these and other questions

are really at the crux of the debate not
only here in the halls of the campus but

across the country these days and
President Obama I gather was in Atlanta

but decided not to engage with you
tonight but we will sit with you in his

stead and in that spirit of
advancing public discourse.

Reflection on these very heady
issues I've invited a number of my

colleagues in the same one school to
share some of their expertise not so

much to provide answers to
many of those questions but

to help tee up a a serious and
systematic discussion that I

hope will help you in sorting through how
you can should be thinking about it and

acting accordingly so for so I've asked
each of my colleagues to speak about

ten minutes to give you a sort of a primer
from their respective perspectives and

then that will lead us into a broader Q.
and A So without further ado let me

introduce all three of them the first
to speak is Dr Larry Rubin and

Larry is our resident Middle East
specialist in the Sam Nunn school

in fact he has a recent book that has hit
the streets at Stanford University Press

that looks at intra Arab security dilemmas
and specifically his research examines

the hows and whys and when does
idiology especially revolutionary Islam

affect the threat perception and foreign
policies of the different Arab states and

I've asked area Larry to give us
an overview of what's going on in

the region these days and

particular some of the perspectives
from different regional state actors and

after Larry Speaks our next.

Colleague is Dr Jenna Jordan and Jenna as
many of you know studies terrorism and

migration but she brings a specific
expertise to the table tonight that I

think is especially out proposed and that
is her understanding of the organizational

structure the capabilities
the tactics the the.

The strengths and
weaknesses of groups like Hamas and

I.S.I. Al and how they are similar and
different from each other and

from al Qaeda and
other regional terrorist group or

work has also been featured recently in
a very prominent international security.

Journal where she's taken on the issue
of specific the strengths and

weaknesses of different counterterrorism
strategy and specifically some of

the limitations of decapitation approach
something that is again being implicated

in in the strategy that we're considering
and in the region these days and

after Jenna speaks will be
Professor Nicholas Fabry and

Mickey is an associate professor
in the school and he's not so

much a regional expert as he is a scholar
of the norms of sovereignty and

in particular the relationship
between borders and

territorial integrity and
political development and

he's going to talk a little bit about
the crisis of the state in the region and

some of the strategies for contending with
that So without further ado let me flip it

over to Larry to give us a overview
from the regional perspective.

Thank you very much Dr Silver and everyone
else and everyone who's attending there

inside or outside the room at this time so
when I handed out my syllabus in

the first my first class attack on the
Middle East and Middle East politics in

January two thousand and eleven I really
had little idea what was in store for

me those next few weeks are definitely
next few years until now

those protests in Tunisia been increasing
the time we were in class and then

by the third week of class millions of
Egyptians were calling were in the streets

protesting not not trying to get into my
class but calling for Mubarak's downfall.

The uprising produced many regime
changes Islamists were elected and

in some cases overthrown
such as the case Egypt.

One of the results was also civil

of Syrian civil war which is killed
more people than the Algerian.

Civil war in the one nine hundred ninety
S. Also Yemen today still struggles with

this Libya today is on the verge of
again spiraling into civil war and

regional regional divisions has been for
a while and why Tunisia

was the first to spark it seems to be the
most stable and best off from this change.

Well these conflicts are very serious
questions of the future and and

the State of the state not just
of the state but the region but

also the state itself as we'll talk about
in a second and perhaps as a result of

both the Syrian civil war and the Iraq
Rocky civil war I will say the mid

ninety's the mid two thousand historic
borders are being contested in ways unseen

unseen for quite some time with
the rise of ISIS or Islamic state or

I'm not going to go through all
the different acronyms right now or

I still if you would have thought that
this that the famed sites become agreement

from one nine hundred sixteen that
divided the Middle East into British and

French spheres of influence would be
such a trending topic today among and

not just among anti colonial Arab
nationalists saying they divide the region

but basically among everyone talking
about this because because the because

ISIS is talking about and say we
proclaim the death of this these and

of these borders between Syria and
Iraq and

this past summer we saw the latest salvo
in the in the Israeli Palestinian or

will say Israeli Hamas conflict
resolution seems to be far away from

as far away from us as ever Abbas
remains weak mass remains empowered

in the Gaza Strip even though the Gaza
Strip is not all that devastated and

that Netanyahu was attacked from the left
and the right and still there's no clear

winner from this conflict sucks except
perhaps Egypt which has managed to avoid

this any of this damage but it same
time avoid having having one of its main

enemies on its border
amassed somewhat weakened.

Militarily So while the Arabs seem see
their spring seems to be this major Storch

a marker transform the Middle East in ways
that we probably are unimaginable now and

probably won't see until quite
sometime we need remember there was

actually the Iraq war that of
the least many of these many of these

these dynamics that we see today and
having to do specifically with some

of the sectarian balance of imbalances of
power we see throughout the region and

as well as just the plain
balance of military power.

In the in the Gulf in particular led to
in part and and condition Iran's arise

in in the Gulf while it's pursuing
nuclear technologies that

it may give it the capability
to acquire nuclear weapons and.

Also made it merging basically
with its rise two major pivot

points of the Middle East the Israeli Arab
conflict which it took advantage of and

of course Gulf security toward the end
of the last decade in particular we

saw Iran's rise of course though with Also
Turkey's rise which is somewhat stunted by

the recent events in Syria now so we'll be
able to cover everything that's happened

I'd like to highlight a few things that
will hopefully give some perspective and

maybe we'll take up a little
bit more in the Q. and

A session the first is the first point is
the regional politics must be viewed from

the region not just from Washington or
through the lens of American interests so

there's a tendency both
outside the region and

sometimes even within it to
overestimate American power and

its ability to influence events on the
ground this goes in particular what I had

seen through the Arab uprisings about the
United States could have done more could

have done this are Khurshid
events in this way and

in fact throughout the Cold War This
is often the view of the Cold War of

the Middle East is kind of the this is
basically the of just a reflection of

what's going on in this really isn't the
case if you look closely at the history

very often some of these actors play off
the major superpowers in this also goes

the case you look at many of the conflicts
in the region playing off one one even

regional powers sometimes versus another
there's also a slew of regional dynamics

that sometimes get too much or
too little play Now not every conflict or

alliances about religious or
ethnic identity but and domestic and

regional politics are often are twined but

it's kind of you know you need to try to
understand these within the context and

across and within each issue in a sense
that one side you know no one size

fits all in this way that you have to look
at the context by trying to understand

these these relationships and that it
wouldn't be a predictor of who's going to.

Aligned with who and who's an enemy of
whom by the by one conflict itself but

by one issue itself so let's take the most
crucial the most one of the most confusing

at crucial aspects determining security
architecture the Middle East and

that's the Iranian basically Iranian Saudi
relations are almost in a sense as part of

the poll that during the two thousand
was talked about as being the crux

one of the cruxes of the Arab
the Arab the new Arab Cold War So

this rivalry is often described as
some is a Shia as as with Iran being

a Shia Persian power against
a Sunni Arab one and and

then this is basically a lead moderate
verses or a radical access axis and

fighting its proxy wars outside this
mean arena of Gulf security but

if you look again at some of these of
these actors and Procter proxies they

don't always align Iran had supported
Sunni Arab Hamas and as well as as

Arab Hezbollah in southern Lebanon where
is Saudi Saudi Arabia was against this and

had seen it and we've seen it in
many recent conflicts Iran supports.

Supports the Syrian pan Arab.

Assad regime in Syria and

the Saudis support the opposition against
it many of these variants also are seen in

other conflicts let's throw Qatar
into the mix again Qatar a gulf Arab

monarchy on the not on the side of
the Assad regime and against and

some in certain conflicts against what
the Saudi interests are in particular with

with Egypt but on this issue in particular
this is the Syrian civil war it's on

the side the same side as Saudi Arabia
this is confusing I bet let's go again

to the recent Gaza conflict it's not a
much easier for me either this one really

brought a lot of these relationships to
bear of what might be forming and and

this basically you had the Israeli
with the Israeli war in Gaza

against Hamas you had Saudi and
the Gyptian tacit support for.

For this operation and

addition of quiet will say my simple
statements from the Jordanians.

And this remember we're looking at the
Saudi and we can't lens or look at this in

sectarian or ethnic conflict terms we have
to look at this in terms of what types of

interests are are there and what
the biggest fears of these regimes are and

that in particular is the rise of an
Islamist regime that might come to power

and this is more of an ideological
in threat than anything else so

moving on to my second point.

What happens in Cairo or Baghdad by dad
doesn't really doesn't every doesn't stay

in Cairo Baghdad as a result of this
complex mac map of overlapping ethnic and

sectarian identities while the state's
being increasingly challenged

it's often very very difficult
contain these ethnic and religious

conflicts especially when these political
actors use them to their advantage.

For example Palestinian Israeli clashes
can be destabilizing at the at the local

level not just say in Jordan where you
have where you have a sizable Palestinian.

But Palestinian will say a sizeable
thousand population that may constitute in

fact fact half of the their Jordanian
citizen population there but

also in other places where it's used to
mobilize domestic populations there and

is often seen as a liability and
sometimes a flashpoint for trying to forge

a number of different alliances crises
like these like these like this violence

sometimes heighten these these tensions
another example of where of how and

work conflicts spreads as with the Kurdish
example you know the I want to show

too much on the map here Kurds concert as
a will say as a people spread are spread

across four states Iraq Iran Syria and.

And Turkey and and over the past period
over the period last period of time you

can see before nine hundred ninety
there was always this playing among

the of realizing that you can't really
push one population too far and

there's almost an equilibrium that
took place for over a period of time.

These are some of the considerations
that many of the players have today

when it comes to this into.

Especially the Syrian civil war and some
of the enclaves that we made that will

probably discuss a little later and and
it into Q. and A period of time but

when you affect one of the populations
you can easily affect another and

also the national security of
various population especially

that have significant demographic
presence in those other states.

Finally the interplay between
Syria the Syrian civil war and

Iraqi politics is crucial
here one of the factors and

I want and Dr Jordan will talk about
this more that has led to the success of

ISIS is is the resentment of the Sunni
population in Iraq towards the Maliki

government was which was seen to be
favoring Shia population there which

constitutes the majority it's also one
of the reasons why people are talking so

much at the end of the end of six Pico and

beyond just the Islamic state which claims
to have abolished it so these ethnic and

sectarian sectarian challenges
also challenge the borders that

we have today and the ability to
maneuver in domestic politics.

So the third point I want to make is is
basically fear not when all is said and

done many of the same issues will still
be around for you after after this

presentation is done and maybe by
the time your kids go to school no.

These sectarian issues won't go away and

neither of these balances
an imbalance of power.

Even if most of the sectarian or
religious enclaves receive their own state

in that way there are always going to be
these identity categories that the various

actors can take and can take advantage
of and potentially manipulate across

across state lines the different conflicts
and systems might also be organized then

still in the same way around what we have
today a goal of security as is one and

around this system that goes around
with the Arab Israeli conflict but

I think we're seeing a growing signs of
that the former is beginning to change

the latter a resolution the Palestinian
issue or some progress toward it

would certainly have a large effect and
longstanding issues at least.

Longstanding at least tacit cooperation
may bring the States a bit closer and

as Iran its continued push toward nuclear
weapons acquisition may also change these

dynamics especially a balance of power in
the Gulf and may affect how partition or

potential the potential for partition is
viewed among some of these states and

Syria and both Iraq so is there some hope
well let me throw out two quick points

there may be some new opportunities at
the regional level because of the recent

changes in the regional
politics ISIS is surprising and

shocking in the sense that all these
actors can agree that they all oppose it

and that's rare in the Middle East when it
comes to actually cooperation that's going

to be a different question and it has
been but it could be an opportunity.

There's also an alignment against and

it's been this way against Islamist coming
to power in some of these states and

we've seen this but the second or
third year of the Arab Arab Spring or

uprisings among some of these
counterrevolutionary forces and

lastly although the Palestinian
issue will remain a liability for

some of the these these more status quo
States from the domestic perspective

the risk of recent Gaza conflict has
shown that it can bring actors closer

together cooperate on strategic interests
Saudi Arabia in Jordan the same alignment

Mind you that is formed around the Iranian
nuclear issue I'm going to leave and

right here and
turn it over to my colleague Dr Gordon.

Yeah thank you all for
being here this is great so

I'm going to talk a little bit about
wanting to focus my comments on ISIS but

I think if we can talk about
the other groups in the Q.

and A and I'm going to talk a little bit
about history and I think you and I talked

several of the history find it really
fascinating and really interesting and

important to understand how Isis became or
I solar or Islamic state or whatever

you want to call it I'm going to say I
say this because that this kind of thing.

So I want to start by talking about.

I've been with Savas of Holly who was the
sort of original mobile will get there so

basically he was a militant who came
to Afghanistan in one thousand eight.

Nine sort of just a bit late to fight
the Soviets he went back to Jordan

the Jordanian went back to Afghanistan
in one nine hundred ninety nine where he

became friends with the net then Laughton
but he actually didn't join al Qaeda

surprisingly after the Taliban
fell he fled to Iraq and

that's where we see the beginning of
the movement after the two thousand and

three US led invasion of Iraq
he set up the forerunner to

what is today ISIS or the Islamic State.

And his rhetoric was actually
quite similar to bin Laden's but

his tactics were very different and

not something that we see has become
a big issue for the organization.

Now from the outset we targeted
other other Muslims other sheep and

Shia particular So
why was he targeting Shia and

Shiite shrines at the time well some say
well the Shia were just an easier target

at that point they didn't have the
strength to fight back this despite being

a majority now after Saddam Hussein
fell Shiite politicians

replaced Sinise who had long dominated
Iraqi politics and he was sort of

anticipating that there would be
considerable Sunni resentment to Shias

that would help build up alliances and so
he began carrying out lots of attacks and

suicide attacks against Shia on
the neighborhood now in two thousand and

four Zahawi officially
joined with Al Qaida and

rebranded itself all Qaeda in Iraq or
al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and

at this time they actually began to
see things that we're seeing now

like beheadings and other just really
brutal tactics and done in this

very demonstrative way that were intended
to have very public you know the kind

of getting published city like getting
you know watching it there was a quote by

a very well known terrorism scholar Brian
Jenkins who said ages ago that terrorists

don't want to lot of people dead they want
a lot of people watching while I think we

can safely say that these organizations
want a lot of people dead with.

They also want a lot of people watching
and that's a lot of the headings and

really brutal tactics have the effect
of doing that now in two thousand and

five a lottery who was.

So the number two al Qaeda actually was
very vocal very quick vocally critical

of their colleagues tactics of killing
civilians and we see this now happening

with Baghdadi today Zawahiri is coming
out very vocally in opposition to their

tactics now by two thousand and six are
probably song self the sort of the emir or

spiritual leader and he insisted that
Iraqis Sinise and here to adhere to their

very very strict interpretation of Sharia
law and those who resisted were killed so

as lots of coercion involved in this you
know in two thousand and six he was killed

in a U.S. airstrike north of Baghdad I
think about twenty miles north of Baghdad

and as a death occurred during this time
of the Sunni awakening when many Sunni

tribes who were very started to be very
unhappy with this harsh imposition of

Sharia law were fighting that now the U.S.
military took sort of advantage of this

of this sentiment and supported insurgency
known as the awakening the Sunni

awakening where tribesmen and even those
who actually had fought the Americans

were supported now to fight al Qaeda in
Iraq they were called the Sons of Iraq and

it's really highlighted actually how many.

A.Q. I commanded.

The search.

For its mine.

Q I was seriously degraded and it was seen
as a victory right we defeated al Qaeda in

Iraq now this victory didn't deal
with the underlying Sunni Shia issues

in Iraq that's still going on and so
that piece was ultimately left to Maliki

who really worsened this she is city
relations in Iraq Maliki denied

the Sons of Iraq those participating in
the press participated in defeating A.Q.

why their salaries the tribal leaders
never got what was promised to them and

Sunni politicians were ignored they
were prosecuted and many Sunnis.

Maliki's role were killed they were
persecuted they were treated very badly

he filled the police and
military with Shias and

some of them from the militias
that had killed lots of Sunnis so

this really sets the stage for sort of
where we are now now by two thousand a lot

of been when the US withdrawal was
complete A.Q. I was now run by doddy

who is now the leader of ISIS and
it was largely actually a local force and

it was known as the Islamic State of Iraq
or I aside you know that daddy was very

much in sync with our colleagues
tactics he sent suicide attackers to

attack police to attack military offices
checkpoints recruiting stations and

lots of civilian targets and
I aside ranks included lots of

these former Sons of Iraq who
participated in their way getting so

it's so we now see this unlikely
alliance and there is you know which is

something very typical of what's going
on as Dr Rubens comments made Clare and

he had thousands of fighters at this
point so then he opens a second branch

in Syria to participate in
the uprising against Assad and

he was so in an Alawite Is
she a subset of a leader so

they're actually more they ended
up being more effective a more

effective fighting force than many of
the secular groups fighting Assad and

this is when he renamed the group ISIS or
by solar or

whatever now at the time there was also
another there was no there was lots and

lots of rebel groups fighting here and

I'm not going to go into all the details
of of all of them but a very notable.

Other militant group was the all
Nusra Front which also grew out of I aside

now in two thousand and eleven right about
the same time Baghdadi tried to merge

the all Nusra Front with ISIS to make
them all one organization under his rule

now Jelani the leaders
said no he refused and so

then we see a competition
between these groups and ISIS.

Honeybee emerged as the most
effective of the forces now just like

our colleague Baghdad he began to impose
very strict rule over the Syrian towns and

villages that were now
under their control.

And and in early you know two thousand and
fourteen Assad fighting back and

re truck in the area called Homs a sort
of symbolic part of the uprising.

But at this time Baghdad he
was planning on going back to.

Iraq taking plan to go into Iraq so then

you know the events of the summer happened
where we see ISIS going into Iraq and

taking lots of territory in
the northwest in just a remarkably quick

process that surprised lots of people
he then named himself the Caliphate and

her name and renamed the group
Islamic state that we know now so

what areas do they control so
this map is kind of gets a sense so

that the red dots are the ISIS controlled
area places and the pink sort of areas

under full control the yellow are sort
of recurring attacks and then so

that sort of gives you a sense now they've
seized obviously lots of cities and

towns near major supply routes your
critical infrastructure and your border

crossings and that's really important
at this border now between Iraq and

Syria has just become so fluid.

Now the self-proclaimed caliphate sort
of stretches from these new look newly

conquered towns along the Syrian Turkish
border through it's sort of de facto

capital in Iraq of northern Syria
across the you know a rocky border.

Obliterated a Brocky border into
Mosul to Crete down to farming town

south of Baghdad it's actually roughly
a third of the territory of both Iraq and

Syria now as you can see though there's
lots of holes right they don't control

the entire area and lots of this
territory is sparsely populated but

they control some heavily
populated areas some very.

Key strategic areas and
what they've shown is that they did

what al Qaeda was unable
to do to hold clear control

over a defined territory that something
all kind of was not able to do so

how were they able to do this how were
they able to gain so much territory

control Well there's lots of things we can
look out one is just their sheer size.

The recent C.I.'s CIA estimates
actually so it has had was estimated

that there's about ten to fifteen
thousand foreign fighters alone and

thirty five thousand.

Markable I mean that is here that
much larger than many asked him and

said Al Qaeda was at night that's
a remarkably big organization.

Differently the Iraqi army was broken and

this allowed a lot of their you know
ability to come in and take these clubs

to take these towns the Iraqi army lacked
equipment they had desertions they were in

sort of a psychological collapse there
was corruption there was poor leadership.

And I says had seized you know
military equipment lots of money and

it just gave them a lot of capability and
they also had as we saw

the support of lots of diverse groups of
Sonny's so they had support of Sunnis

who were initially fighting radical groups
like al Qaeda in Iraq poses participated

in the Sunni awakening the former Saddam
Hussein bought this regime loyalists

were now fighting on behalf of ISIS now
it's unclear sort of motivations why and

that's what's always hard to get at
an understanding why people participate in

rubble on militant movements whether it's
fear or coersion or not wanting to be seen

as allied with the U.S. or you know
there's a host of different factors.

But they also just have a lot of money
which allows an insurgent group to take

territory they've stolen it's
been when they were in Syria.

That there.
Actually selling back to the Assad regime

and some estimates are that they are they
actually are bringing in from this

oil fields and refineries close to one to
two million dollars per day that's this

that's major for a terrorist organization
in July they actually got control of

the country's largest oil fields which is
producing about thirty thousand barrels

per day they've engaged in
looting extortion robbing.

They have control of grains and cotton
productions in eastern part of Syria and

access to weapons from
the sort of anti Assad forces.

In Iraq after taking control of Mosul they
seized the central bank they seized gold

they have like in having weaponry that
they seized from Iraqi security forces and

just having territorial control you know.

Now.

Would see a kind of want to wrap it
up I'll just say a couple of couple

a couple final points you know it's
important also to think about support for

organizations and that's something
that's critical for militant

groups to be able to function they need
support just to be able to operate in

life by they need resources
just at a very basic level.

And what ISIS has done and
or is beginning to do and

this is something that Hamas has done very
effectively is that they've been able to

provide services in places where the
government hasn't been able to and this

is a way to sort of generate support for
groups on the ground in the communities

in which they are in the towns of the seas
in the cities where they're operating.

And ISIS has done this you know they've
gone into towns but they've allowed

certain services to continue they
are providing food supplies for

areas that have been decimated by war and
in the final point I want to make what two

final points of that I promise I'll wrap
it up is social media they've used social

media very effectively and I don't know
if any of you have seen any of the.

ISIS P.T.O.'s But there's kind of two
clients right there's the obvious really

horrible ones of the headings which we've
all seen which have very demonstrative of

facts but there's also these kind of very
positive videos that they've made recently

I saw one of where it showed very
happy she had like pushing their

kids on swings in pretty park saying you
know come to the Islamic state you can

come here you can be free you can practice
you know Islam without being persecuted

women are comfortable here and it really
appeals to people who feel that a lot

of injustice is are being done to Muslims
around the world and it's a very effective

tool in their glossy in their soft music
it's kind of shocking and then the final

point I want to make is just about the
organizational structure this is a group

that has a clear structure you know they
have a you know they have a leadership

council they have deputies they have
local leaders that report to the deputies

they have Cabinet members that oversee
finance security media prisoners

recruitment right all different divisions
of the organization and that's what groups

need in order to function effectively
now my research looks at whether or

not targeting the leaders of militant
organizations is likely to be

an effective kind of strategy and
what I find is that against groups that

have this kind of infrastructure
that are highly bureaucratized or

groups like Hamas it's really unlikely to
be effective that they have these kinds of

mechanisms in place to be able to be
resilient to attacks against this sort

of organization itself so we can talk more
about this if people are interested thank

you.

As you've heard them
talk of the condition.

Of the need for.

You know.

The wrong.

People.

From.

My.

Point.

Of proper

function.

There.

Are.

Probably.

Very.

Much.

They.

Are.

Far

from.

Prague.

I.

Think.

Part.

Of.

The.

Problem.

Up.

Top.

Thanks OK with the comments
as a springboard let me

turn it to you guys to you Mike
over to you to to query our steam

panelist with any questions that
you may have let me just ask for

a one ground rule which is
just ask one question we as

you can see there's standing room only
here and we want to get in as many.

Participants as possible so
we have a mike that will circulate

thank.

You

just.

Is Zach Taylor from
the from the UN school.

Social scientists a particular feature
that much rather predict the past probably

gun to your head so if you had a gun to
your head and anyone or all be allowed to

hear the answer what do you predict
are the main the most likely for ISIS.

Just don't all jump at once.

I'm like.

You know I.

Think.

I'm going to get you know I hope
that they're going to be OK for

me he has.

Zero zero zero. Zero. Zero zero.
Zero. Zero. Zero. Zero

support.

My God I hope you're going
to you know it goes.

On.

But why.

Not.

So many fires before they are.

Ready so.

They're like the jury.

Right now I mean you know as
a lot of people are saying

I don't see a military solution.

I think that there's really where they're.

Part of the ideology.

Of.
Life.

I.

Think a lot.

Of you think about getting leaders
you know very right and you.

Get.

A lot more.

I think.

That yeah I know that.

I like that.

A little you know.

You.

Go.

You know where you are.

And.

What are.

You going to be.

The.

What what.

Exactly is wrong.

Here it is in fact if.

You go here.

Yes.

Or at least the.

World No.

Zero.

Point.

Zero you very.

Little.

One coming was really
what we get along with.

Like an explosion is
going to happen right.

After.

So stay.

With us for the rest of the board.

Of.

Your.

Money.

Run.

Right.

Back.

That my.

Thinking about this country might
be to get our seniors in all my.

Heart that when you get.

Your child.

Filing your story.

Trying to get market share Well it's
easy to process I don't get it and

it makes things more violent for.

Certain when I go to the next one one of
the things that makes me a little bit

nervous any answers.

And it strikes me that the latter seems
very far fetched unlikely to run into all

of these problems that my colleagues on
the other hand if the objectives are more

limited in terms of grading or
more specifically mind space and time for

other local actors be they the Sunni
militias that we've mentioned or

the Iraqi government or
other jihad moderate.

Moderate opposition forces in Syria
to get some purchase it may be more

possible to to stem this tide but
a big part of it may

in the future of ISIS made rest with the
strategy that we choose to pursue which

I would argue right now is not that clear
but I don't know that's a problem right

now because I think the objective is
to try to buy some space and time.

Yeah let's let me make
two requests here one

of the panel please shift the microphone
as you answer questions and

second as soon as you ask your questions
could you please pass the microphone back

to me yes I'm graduate in
physics a lawyer in Tehran and

then the experience in
any of this stuff but.

Like my goes to the video feed room so you
just have to be glad to be climbing but

with the mike you think the history
of this region which is to

be governed by very strong men dictated.

By the guy.

And the combination.

For you lots of nine
states all the players

put the combat troops in
their own people fighting.

And the.

Recognized hatred maybe millions of people
in that region Yeah West foundries.

Inability to express themselves.

How do you think that
will affect the course of

ISIS.

I'm sure of the I mean I think there
are factors among the fact you raised or

are some of the trends that
we've seen throughout history.

I think it is tougher still
mentioned a lot will depend on

the types of structures that are chosen So
these are the factors that I think

when looking at strategy I
think you know it's not just.

A difficult position of the way you have
to weigh those effects of the measure that

there's a there's a lot of time to clear
answers looking a lot of times also you

know these small strategies look versus
the larger picture of the region.

And whether you can tailor one to one
policy and not get into a kind of paradox

of having unintended consequence you know.

I think also in terms of thinking about
your play that reluctance to play that's

the con that you're right I
actually think that that it is

a reasonable act on the part of the U.S.
to kill a given you know

just in my comments talking about the
history in the emergence of this not so

much of that really out there you know.

You know I'm reluctant to put combat ships
on the ground and go right there on any

side that creating lots of
sentiment lots of attacks.

My gosh.

You know.

You're.

Always your question would
be more generally just so

I said Very good question you
know very difficult question.

To ask so it's sort of like.

You know the question is you
always this is what is this.

We have seen in the last year with a lot.

More government.

And that has.

Really made all kinds of.

Terrible consequences.

As well as you know global.

Consequences such as ISIS.

In Iraq or Libyan arms going.

Other places.

I mean my my my answer would be you know
you can or should retreat government.

Was accepted.

That everybody really is.

It's a problem usually.

But I don't know what else there
can be that's what you hope for

is that the hospital
with you know through.

All the plates.

Around the.

Soldiers stationed here right now free.

And I don't.

Want to.

Not.

Feel.

Like we're going to be.

Let me just also mention something
about the boots on the ground issue and

there's been a lot of attention
to that in my presence taking on.

Why for that.

I leave that to you to decide where you
come down but a couple things to keep in

mind about what the strategy
years where boots on the ground.

It's important to know that the strategy
has been articulated as what is an office

of strategies aimed at defeating
an adversary in this case ISIS It's

not about coercing us and a lot of times
the whole issue about boots on the ground

and a reluctance to commit beyond
a certain level causes problems for

coercive strategy because you're trying to
get into the mind of your adversary and

you want to convince them to
back down without using force

in this case that's not what the strategy
is about the strategy is simply about.

Degrading and destroying this sad story
and as such I think the in my own

budget judgment is the problem is there's
an agreement with my colleague Dr Jordan

that the president pursuing that type of
strategy is signaling less to ISIS and

more to me allies on the ground and
elsewhere and most importantly into

the American public which as you just
heard is not very supportive of that

type of commitment so I don't think there
is going to be heavy cost to pay in terms

of influencing ISIS fi havior by
putting restrictions on what we're

committing to I do think there are as I
mentioned some real questions about what

are we actually committing to and what are
our objectives and you if those of you who

have been watching the news today know
that there were Senate hearings and

already the military commanders
are beginning to play.

Different definitional games about what it
means to have combat troops in the region

not a practice all tailored to
a particular military officer rather Gee

about the victim defeating you creating
a particular adversary not about

getting in their heads and getting
them to stand down with us using us.

But a couple questions.

Actually.

MIKE And so my question actually kind of
jumps on the bus on the ground issue.

I think the person at
the present I said is a critical

player in terms of containing ISIS and.

His army of course differ so
then you coalition led by the U.S. as

cooperating with us have in
terms of containing I says.

Well I think the first.

U.S. based the last.

One here it's got you know how
to align actions with divergent

interest among themselves
to come together in combat.

Here we're talking about
the shoot down of the rock.

We need to get down from this
area differences come together.

And we also need to get some of
the International Year of Saudi Arabia our

Russia we have them here.

So one dilemma is how do you get
these different flavors players

out there really understand.

The second of them is how
do you maintain distinction

between actors that maybe on
a particular issue have converged.

OK And how can you boys so

we're doing those actors and they have
long term detrimental consequences and

here is where the issue of Assad comes
because the challenge for the U.S.

in this case and I think the Obama
administration has been very clear about

where position right now is that if
this were it not only about you.

Read Isis I suppose but they're
also looking down the road which is

historically been a part of
the letter that's been dropped off or

gave interventions as Rob said and

I think this is where they're trying
to search this out because no one.

Here we do have commercial interest
seemingly all of the stock

in Valley nice but I thought it
was conversion interest with ISIS

here keeping some of the other more
moderate opposition elements of base

in Syria so
there is a delicate balancing act or

similar is the case with Iran and the
United States the same kind of argument

has been argued that maybe the United
States and Iran can work together for

ordinary combating this but it is
Dr Who mentioned I'm some issues we're

conversion on other issues we have very
different positions on the challenge for

the U.S.
strategy is not only to bring parties to.

The don't agree to gether
against a common enemy but

is to avoid empowering actors that have
long term detrimental interests and

I think that's quite a sign that they're
very reluctant to to do anything formally.

With the site or
to be seen as more than eighty percent.

Of.
The replay again if you know if you

were still a starter for the team.

But I think unless you actually didn't
really get commit serious ground it would

get you that he's cooperated one.

Hundred percent of the most that's
the most effective fighting force that.

The patients are willing.

To go.

Assume are.

Going to be stable and.

Doesn't change the basic.

Point.

Is.
So that I mean to that's a real that's

going to still have him lay blame me I
don't think you know there are serious

moral questions Who are you can
look back three plus years and

say or be better off by
playing it hard you know wife.

Well it's

very.

Early.

I actually went up.

And I was physically about Saudi.

Right you know by.

We.

Are going to be.

Here you know why.

I think that we.

Need.

US that you think you.

Know we're really.

Going to let.

You know.

Your worst.

And we go right somebody you know.

It will go it's just.

My name Steve you are living very.

Christian I tried to turn
approached by one of our.

I had a friend who was
a Jordanian American came to school.

So I have the root of the stuff going on
right now how secure is Jordan to this

family but we're not but
we did a couple of War questions.

But we just want.

My question is regarding Syria.

Today I was listening to Senate Armed
Services Committee and last two

weeks debate in the media it looks like
the biggest confusion is in Syria.

We.

Have been saying so and so should go so

insert should stay like a sack should
go he has not done anything to us

already most racist ally so the.

Pakistan and few others have done
more ghastly things to us and

the budget in Afghanistan is as true
does the border in Syria my question.

Right trying to make it more difficult.

To fight against ISIS against
whom we have a real concern

Assad has the same objective
like you are saying.

Also promoting in your opinion
if so-called Free Syrian

thing to disrupt We don't
even know whom to fight and

it will take five thousand soldiers per
year training which will take years and

none of the senators today versus how this
fight with the gender Dempsey's answered

today.

Hello my name is Harry I'm
a Fulbright scholar from Pakistan

being from Pakistan I could.

I see a lot of sectarianism
even back home.

It's not Middle East but it's not and

we see that you know I think
the perception is that Saudi Arabia

is you know the head of the game and
it's basically Saudi Arabia

which is a originating money's coming
from Saudi Arabia so and so and

so if you go back into the roots
if you know the Shiite Shiite and

the Sunni conflict it's very
interesting to know the fact that

it's not only you know the Sunni
right it's not just a particular band

that is dividing to seventy one
different bands of his time and she.

She shows them being one of them right so.

The band if you stay in Saudi Arabia and

even in ISIS it's the same which is
the one hobby about if it's not right so

there's a lot of what we're not that I
see as being a Muslim myself in some of.

This weight so I see.

A lot of start of stuff
going there in Saudi Arabia.

And even if America for
instance tomorrow goes down with a boot

which every action you
know America plans to go.

I would see.

And I says with another name emerging
tomorrow you know you kill ISIS

today you could say that
yesterday ISIS group ISIS today

some other things you know grew up what do
we do about these tendencies and how do

you kill the snake's head you know how do
you give that money funding source and

you know just talk a bit more about U.S.
strategy a strategy to.

Thank you.

Guys.

Come to spend a casual dress I'm
a business consultant to N.G.O.s many of

whom are operating in the.

Middle East right now I'm very fortunate
to have amateur Columb graduate in two

thousand and nine and my question is many
of the groups I'm working with right now

or media strategies.

That the rise in extremism will
create a moderate sort of response

people are responding negatively to the
increase in extremism and wanting to go.

Toward a more moderate direction so
there are increasing their media response

My question is is this assumption
that many of them are basing

their deployment of resources
on a fair one and to a degree.

Do you see this being
an effective strategy to create

more moderate Islam in diverse ideological
activity things like that in the Middle

East.

And faculty in the non-school
Dr Jordan pointed to the large number

of foreign fighters in this for flee
from ten to fifteen thousand and seventy

really interesting to me to read the
foreign press on the ISIS issue certainly

the Europeans are greatly concerned
about fighters moving into Iraq and

Syria but another country the think we
shouldn't forget about is Indonesia here

is the fourth most populous country
in the world predominantly Muslim and

again many of the people started joining.

I asked So
what do we do about it how can we stop but

what kinds of cooperative arrangements
could be happening there.

These are the survival.

Bill if you want me to wager.

Here.

There's a regional one.

Raised here years ago it's from me and
sure this one.

Is Real.

People and that way.

Now you see all the refugees from

Iraq.

By March.

And you see basically.

Rescue workers just recently over
just the stuff coming years why is.

It possible.

To make sure that there is.

Just you know what we.

Really.

Are.

In.

This for the ability to.

Wonder whether he's right so
far very very serious and I think it is.

You know.

That's up for another.

QUESTION Really quickly what is it Syria.

One.

Zero.

The other one that.

Maybe I'll actually follow the dress code
you and yours and I was just curious.

Which I think is a good question and.

I would like to know which which was
more specifically if you can follow the.

Talk about later.

There's going to be rich countries where.

That's going to be really nasty.

Weather.

You know ships about this in the.

Big Brother watching.

You know.

It's very easy really really.

So I think I think it's you
know I wonder whether the focus

in.

All of them.

Are a few.

Out.

Of the search for that sort of thing.

And I guess I actually
believe the last one.

You know what if you do it
right there watching it

that's just going to keep
working together like.

I said there's something else.

Interesting when I was watching
recently one of these I.

Interviewed you actually.

One of them was from Indonesia and

I remember actually thinking
that I was kind of.

Surprised that they chose me.

But now you know.

If they're clearly reaching out to areas
where they have been I mean obviously

there's a huge you know there's
a huge militant history in Indonesia.

But I think they're reaching out to
areas where they haven't been and

have been put out the fact that.

It just shows how.

It is organization and so then you get
to the issues of like what do you do.

And it really plays out
where they are really

whether it's like you know they are.

Probably going to have
the same kind of like.

Residence and I think that you can really
bring something in recently thinking about

kind of this this larger issue or
ideological problem terrorism policy for

the.

Sake of it.

But it's something like that.

And one thing I was you know reading
with a message coming from our

Saudi Arabia is going to have a lot more
about him than coming from the West and

I think that is really interesting.

You know thinking about if you ladies are
people in different ways than I do because

I think differently to Perry and so you
know the kind of rhetoric that we use will

be probably very different for he'll focus
on policy in Indonesia than it would for

Egypt or for Saudi Arabia and one of the
really interesting things that American

like videos that we've been putting out
you know show it like it's horrible things

that happen kids you know as they go
abroad sort of like taking Isis you know

using it against them on their first I
thought was that this is kind of silly but

it is actually it is the fact
that in some way it's like

having his counter message of saying
look you know going to fight in Iraq and

Syria it's not like you're going to carry
on like this is like really brutal this is

a horrible places lots of you know
devastation going on videos are just so

slickly done that I think they really
feel that people are really powerful way

just the power of these videos and social
media and so many of them you know most

of them are pretty or
in their twenty's and so for

example it's all in the you know like.

It's almost like online even I mean
this is this is the this is the media so

I really feel that you know I say that the
more I think about what I've been doing

research as I feel it really kind of
ideological message is so important and

it gets to you know your initial
question about your Saudi Arabia and

you know this kind of what hobbies
are connection and I think that.

That plays a big part in life
Saudi Arabia just doing like steering

China if it fell from the street.

You know interpretation here it's.

Very obvious which agrees that.

The Yellow River might be driven or

do you think that's our hope is really.

Hope when we go into the store.

We'll be.

Out of the fire.

Then.

You raise a very big question about.

Syria.

I think with the you know major.

Major interest of Syria over the place.

Where you don't care if you look.

Back you go.

Girl but.

I look at this and I'm not there on.

You know right here critical
sort of walk back to my little

cell where they were heard right.

In the meantime so
I have your circle there

based on what you define to
the lines of what they've done all.

Over.

Or you know they sort of just some.

Goal is going worldwide.

Anything.

Or just might possibly go.

Right.

And.

It does a similar.

But but.

Carol that I can think of is.

Were you carrying.

The football being.

A pretty good political goal.

We're going to give you
the reality of the way you.

Do if you vote.

In the first forty.

One.

Something like that.

You know.

The morning the.

Plane may have a date.

Or something you know so I can be.

You know on the ground or it.

Can go very very good question how
can I says he you know the need for.

We're going to.

Have to be a great moderation and
I think we're just a major

force people on the ground
on the fact that we.

May have you know like all kinds.

You know you can't just hand
previously handed citizen you're

going to you know.

You have one play out there
that somebody would write.

These books so far but one thing is you
know missing piece of history we exactly.

Know just one way or fire talking
Jordan earlier she was talking about

resilience of ice I noted the energy

France really IS THE NEXT LIST you
mentioned about two million dollars a day

itself on the market black market
thirty thousand barrels a day.

For.

You to go up from there but
what's so interesting about this.

It is established business.

Week to traders the.

Black market this is.

Turkey Jordan you read some
of the crude refineries

in parts of Syria some of the production
facilities in the wrong and

then you get to the more fire
one thing this last one is that.

The four fires not only green there's
evil and their willingness to.

Commit to the cause but you also write.

And those words are critical
to sustain a black market.

And I would argue that one of the short
term challenges is present is going to be

thinking in financial planning and sort of
rolling back some of the money laundering.

Coming in and
putting a crimp on the financial side

of the structure there I think are going
to have a more dramatic effect on

those issues than actually turned on.

Or down.

Here in the United States.

So just over here it's.

My name is Khalid I'm doing my
masters international affairs here at

San Juan school.

In Lebanon Hezbollah which is a Shia Islam
this militia fighting ISIS in Syria and

its supporters in Lebanon locally has
recently very recently started recruiting

and training Christians and to Lester
lesser extent secular Sunni fighters to

face the ISIS threat in Lebanon so do you
think that as the threat of ISIS grows so

does the prospect of a consolation
between possibly Baghdad on air below or

to a lesser extent Damascus and
this and the opposition in Syria.

Hi Ali kind of conjuring P.H.D.

but from Kuwait which we fear
the presence of ISIS in that region

My question is on
the future of the region.

There is about one point three
billion Muslims in the world and

most of them live under oppressive
regimes secular regimes and

many of them see a big void in
the leadership in Islam cleaner shit so

it's pretty easy for
the system extremists to appeal to them.

Does the US is a US aware of that and

doesn't have a long term strategy to
empower the moderate versions of Islam or

at least empower these groups to
grow we saw this void happen in

Egypt after Mubarak was overthrown
the only group that had the power and

organizational structure to mobilize
was just like brotherhood and

all the others were in a mess two or
select who can go between them.

If you go ten years from now and
there was a big movement toward

using come back to fight to extremist and
terrorism.

Is the U.S. So where now that the strategy
creates more extremist not the other way

around and what is in the future for that.

Let's.

Get one more over here that
we're going to get this is.

My name is Sam And here but I'm from Egypt
I just started school here a year and

a half ago so I was there with
all the action start over there.

So I just want to have some comments
around US interference with us that's

what we know very like that's what we hear
from there so it's a good thing that you

brought up the problem with the Sunni and
that they're in power and they're actually

imposing a lot of power on the Sunnis
over there that's why S.S. started.

And the thing is that's why.

We hear from there is that the U.S.
when it left Iraq or like when they were

in there the help the she asked to
gain power over the Sunni's more that

Saddam Hussein was a Sunni with a country
that's half and half Shia and Muslim.

And which brought in a lot
of problems after that so

I don't think that the U.S. interference
again is going to help anything.

And like I don't know but I think the U.S.

and France before that caused a lot of
trouble and I says maybe one of them.

And I think it should just give it

time.

My name is Maz because I work for
housing here at Georgia Tech I have

two questions but actually.

Very quickly in one thousand nine
hundred seventy nine Afghanistan.

Now I don't know if you saw
the movie Charlie's war now so

many years after Charlie's
war shows something that U.S.

supported major had been secretly but
later admitting that yes we were

behind it now there are some
theories in the West that.

Some Western intelligence specially
British and U.S. intelligence were

behind ISIS type of groups early on.

Even though ISIS has been killing people.

And active in the area as panelist
indicated the West did not react.

As much until the oil fields were taken
by ISIS as well as the beheading started

any comments on that please second one is
very quickly I am orginally from Turkey so

that's why I'm going to ask this
question Turkey's a NATO member.

There.

Is not committing openly as
the negotiations go last couple of days.

Because there are forty
nine Turkish citizens

have been held hostages by ISIS in
the ISIS controlled territory is

now based on the national interest
a country in a close ally.

Afford to join forces openly forty nine

mostly counsel that consulate
members being hostile

just.

Built.

It seems to me that all these countries
that we're talking about most most

countries particularly the ones with
the hobbyist these have huge population

grows have a sustained
huge population grows and

their education level and
their economic abilities.

Are now.

Providing opportunities for
the for their kids and

how could you not have the.

Kind of.

That we have in all these countries
when they have no opportunity to

look at the trouble

or.

You know.

Where.

By.

The.

Way.

The problem.

There.

Words without basically imposing.

Western cultural values which have
been some of these debates but

also encouraging something.

Just an amazing.

These are sometimes done through
the N.G.O.s and are very tricky.

But these are questions ready to go.

And.

I think.

I think a basis for the very.

Broad sweep.

Yeah I think it's hard to
sort of moderate the fire.

By.

The other there is that once you
support the rebels they may not be seen

as credible in their community but
one thing that I think about it is that

wondering like in terms of the hierarchy
that millions of Muslims have one

billion Muslims in the world you know
really how do you know what is the balance

between a sort of more of my right
extremists not just militant people but

just who are fighting for you know for.

Their birthday and you know what's going
on that the public opinion will probably

get a life where they are but.

There is no market more moderate and
so what that deal with the banking

crisis.

Right.

Yeah.

Are.

You.

Ready.

For.

That.

Thank you

very.

Very.

Really.

Really really.

Good guesser.

Just one.

Thing.

What.

I think basically.

I think the US will.

Sustain.

The.

World what's going.

To be the.

Right leadership.

One voice reflexive response.

Is.

The.

Only.

Thing.

I think it also speaks to.

Me.

Well it's one.

Closer to.

The very very.

A student of physics here and
we keep coming back to this issue.

Ideology local populations and

how these groups keep reemerging each
time we throw down another one and so.

One of the things I study on my own
time is rhetoric and propaganda.

Birth of a very powerful tools in this
field recently advertising campaigns and

I'm curious how you think these tools
will be utilized by the U.S. in the.

Foreign policy in particular
in regard to the Middle East.

My is the day to question if we
can degrade or destroy ISIS what

do we really into Suppose Iraq and
Syria will both be able to restore

the integrity of their borders and have
strong central governments and if they do

do we think Saudi Arabia is really
going to be happy with serious Iraq.

With the governments there that are much
more friendly to Iran than the ones that

have been certainly in Iraq previously.

Kind of piggybacking off of that
generally what to me seems like happens

is one thing will pop up and everyone
will focus their attention on not and

other things will sit in the back like
in northwest India and Turkey and

possibly possibly like all around
the world Indonesia there is jihadists

fighting and
if ISIS is rolled back in NOT area it's

still possible that they return back
to India and Turkey in Indonesia and

while there the small of the prior end
up sitting up in the background and

growing and then just like what's
happened recently you know explode and

along with that there is still problems
in Gaza and Nigeria and Ukraine so

our attention will be split a lot
more than what it usually is.

What is like them
placation that we do with

that.

Thank you my name is Manolo Curry El
curries a Lebanese name and

to the last two generations of El
curries my family been born here but

my grandparents were born in Lebanon and
we have a lot of relatives love and

I'll say that only to tell you that.

My family we've been
watching the Middle East for

all of my life all my father's life and
turmoil and Middle East

have been synonymous as long as I've been
watching so my questions are you and

the the moderator started to answer
Are there economic avenues of vailable for

us to contain ISIS and
what they're doing to make money but

my real question is whose problem
is this Is there some way for

the United States to back the people
whose problem this really is.

Or is what we do just know.

But if.

You.

Really look at the science you.

Use And you.

Think this is.

OK but then when you start Yes I know
you know you know that you can get.

Your book and your novel are going.

To be totally all about you know.

So you know if you're right if
you do not you know if you.

Are right about your origin I think for

you I'm very sought after.

Yes I know you also really.

You know all.

The.

Story you write you know you.

Live here you know it
was all going to fall.

So that only thirty years.

Ago that whole area.

You know.

You really really you know.

I don't know how that got.

My mind.

Right.

Very very very.

Very.

Very.

Very.

Very.

Very.

Very.

Shortly.

My question about economic out of new.

Job.

Well I think this gets to one of
the other questions we originally.

Posed were you know does trade.

Break out but

what are the latest thinking about your
point here is if you look at what we're

doing now cross the number of crimes
you see we're sanctioning everything.

ISIS has not done it is
money into a number of

these Alyssa's networks that have
been established either to circumvent

sanctions on Iran surprisingly
there isn't really using.

The backing of ISIS oil trading
with some of the sanctions

busting activity Iran similarly now we
have sanctions imposed on Russia and

there's going to be sensational
circumvention there and

I think that view you know one way to
stem some of the myopia and think you've

already got to do this right now with this
drug is we need to think about all these

things are related to a certain set of
infrastructures and networks that exist

out there that we continuously bump up
against you know we're we're focusing so

I think one way to map your myopia is to
be focusing on some of these networks they

can strain whole economic he's speaking to
some of these players in the short term

thirty or so ago last question this fight
is this and I think the administration

has really suggested that this is really
not a core are like you know one of

us that you really years someone creating
time and space for others on the ground

will work direct state and again just
to answer some of those questions so

I don't think the view that Washington and
not with the media are to

Maria that whenever you get a call at
one of the letters that you have a story

I don't think we're going to drive
enough right I don't think NAFTA.

Just you same thing to go with that
let me close by knowing what I've

observed number of years over the last
several years I've been here is that

I'm very far to see
the enthusiasm with which.

The community here especially
the student community

could raises their responsibility
to take his issues seriously and

we are well past the point minister
returns of married us this evening and

I really applaud all of you for
taking the time out to do your

work your sleeves and think hard about
these because they're not going away.

Again.

So that we can join you
thank you my colleagues.